Hot Stove

[DOUGHBOYS]

I love the Cano-Diaz deal.....FOR THE MARINERS!
ANY time you can get rid of the backside of a players contract, it's a win. Seattle got prospects that could/should blossom and another piece in Bruce to get more prospects.
This is a little like the Tulo-Reyes trade where Tulo had the longer running contract and traded for the shorter contract in Reyes to offset some money.
Back end of contracts are hard to overcome. The Cubs are experiencing it with Heyward (although that is the WHOLE contract)
Same with the Angels and Pujols
Same with Felix and the Mariners.
Same with Ellsbury and the Yankees.
They handtie owners.
Now, Cano is the Mets problem. Yeah, people call him a 'fix'. I call him a problem.

Goldy to the Cardinals.
I love this trade.
I think both sides got enough to be happy about.
Goldschmidt really makes the Cards a lot better team.
Arizona will be the NL Mariners.

Have you noticed how the National League are building strength.
The big trades in Cano, Segura, Yan Gomes, Diaz and Goldy have all gone to NL teams.
The big signing in Patrick Corbin? National League.

Anybody have thoughts to the Hot Stove returning to normal and actually being .....hot?

[SpinningSeams]

The Cano/Diaz deal is great for the Mariners. I personally wouldn't want to trade Bruce, he is a useful at bat and has a manageable contract at $13 million for the next two years and can play OF/1B. Which they will need once they trade Haniger.

The selling of Segura is puzzling to me. To get Santana back with his contract at $41.5 million over the next two years erodes the significance of the first trade. And JP Crawford??? Yikes! A ++ defender with -- bat skills. Dipoto thinks they can fix that.

Obviously the Phillies wanted to off load Santana and off load they did. Makes me wonder if there was more at stake with Segura than his mild $14.5 million dollar contract per year through 2022.

So thus far the Mariners have accumulated notables Mallax Smith, Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Omar Narvaez, Carlos Santana, and JP Crawford. While dumping over $80 million dollars.

The most impactful trade thus far is Goldy to St Louis. This is the trade Cardinal fans have been clamoring for. Not since 2011 have the Cardinals had an over .900 OPS hitter. That hitter was Albert Pujols. This trade makes St Louis relevant again in a close division.

The Hot Stove is certainly better than the snooze fest we had last year.

The NL may be building and getting stronger, but they have a ways to go. AL teams have been stronger for a few years now. It's about time.

Oh and that last name, well, he hit a .700 OPS for the Angels in 2018.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good Stuff, Scott.

I believe the Mariners have done really well too.
Cutting soooo much payroll and getting back a lot of usable pieces has been fun to watch.
Santana should fetch more good pieces too.
I think of all the work Dipoto has already accomplished during the first month of the off season, then think about the Baltimore Orioles who can't even decide on a Manager in the same time frame.
The Orioles have a chance to break the new franchise New York Mets record for losses this upcoming year.
Dylan Bundy could be a good pitcher in normal circumstances, but no pitcher, save Steve Carlton, can pitch in such abhorrent conditions and come out of it with even average statistics.
The Orioles play in a division that eats up bad teams.
While other teams are progressing with making their teams better for now or the future, the Orioles are stuck in neutral.
A bad team stuck in neutral is like having a vehicle quit on you in the middle of a high crime area.
The Orioles are simply, toast.

Goldschmidt will love St. Louis. He's a Cardinals type player and bet that he will be signing there for the long term before he's a free agent.
St. Louis has to figure out what to do with Dexter Fowler.
DFA'ing him at some time this year would not be a surprise.
He is signed for the next three years for 50 million dollars.
But after last year, he does not even carry Jason Heyward status.
Fowler will be 33 this coming year. Some players age worse than others.
And as much as Goldschmidt looked destined to be a Cardinal, Fowler is on the opposite side of that equation.

Luke Weaver gets a new lease on his pitching life. He'll land in a place where he will be part of a rotation again.
I believe he will be a good pitcher at some time in his career.
For fantasy purposes this year, I would have to be enticed by an excellent price point.
A new team, a team that is tearing down, is not the best prescription for Weaver to blossom this coming year.
But, I think he can have a couple of Corbin-like years.

As for Corbin, it is amazing how a guy can make so much money by being so inconsistent,
Still, he had a good year on his contract year.
That means a lot in this day and age.
I believe Corbin will pitch more like Strasburg and not like Scherzer for the Nationals.
Strasburg has never been the pitcher most thought he would be.
He can be dominant at times, but it seems like he keeps getting in his own way.
Corbin is like that too.
BUT, even with all the new analysis going around, baseball teams, like fantasy players, are prone to recency virus as well.

[DOUGHBOYS]

The NL may be building and getting stronger, but they have a ways to go. AL teams have been stronger for a few years now. It's about time.

By the way, last year was the first year in 15 years that the NL came out ahead of the AL in inter league series.
The time is here.

[Bronx Yankees]

I agree with everything that has been said so far, including that the Mariners probably got the better of the Cano deal and that the Goldy trade seems fair for both teams (it could work out quite nicely for Arizona if Weaver and/or Kelly develops). I also agree that the Hot Stove season is off to a far more interesting start than last year. Let's hope it continues.

There is one aspect to all of this, however, that depresses me. Look at the big activity we've had so far. Seattle is dumping players for salary relief and undertaking a rebuild. They were 89-73 last season. Now Arizona appears to be dumping players with at least one goal being salary relief, and also may be on the verge of a rebuild. They were 82-80 last season. Granted, both teams have warts and may not have been as good as their records indicated (especially Seattle). Still, how many teams are trying to win in 2019? Here's my quick view of the landscape:

AL East
Boston - trying to win
New York - trying to win
Tampa Bay - seemingly trying to win within budget constraints
Toronto - rebuilding; no chance
Baltimore - rebuilding; no chance

AL Central
Cleveland - trying to win while shedding salary (only because rest of division sucks)
Minnesota - jury out; no chance without major additions
Detroit - rebuilding; no chance
Chicago - rebuilding; no chance
Kansas City - rebuilding; no chance

AL West
Houston - trying to win
Oakland - trying to win (for now)
Seattle - rebuilding; no chance
Los Angeles - God only knows; no chance right now
Texas - rebuilding; no chance

NL East
Atlanta - trying to win
Washington - trying to win
Philadelphia - seemingly trying to win
New York - apparently trying to win
Miami - rebuilding; no chance

NL Central
Milwaukee - trying to win
Chicago - trying to win
St. Louis - trying to win
Pittsburgh - God only knows; no chance right now
Cincinnati - rebuilding; no chance

NL West
Los Angeles - trying to win
Colorado - seemingly trying to win
Arizona - seemingly rebuilding; no chance now
San Francisco - seemingly on verge of rebuild; no chance
San Diego - God only knows; no chance right now

Thus, before we get to Spring Training, I count about half of the teams as having no chance to win, and who seemingly are in or on the verge of a rebuild, or who just tread water content to be mediocre. I fear that our game is somewhat broken, and that players will get increasingly pissed, and fans increasingly will stay away, as fewer and fewer teams go all out to win every season. Just my $0.02. I love an active Hot Stove season, but I'd like to see one where all participants are trying to win, rather than one driven by teams (including ones in the play-off hunt last year) just looking to sell-off assets and build for the future. The next CBA negotiations may be ugly; I'm already concerned.

Mike

[SpinningSeams]

I think of all the work Dipoto has already accomplished during the first month of the off season, then think about the Baltimore Orioles who can't even decide on a Manager in the same time frame.
The Orioles have a chance to break the new franchise New York Mets record for losses this upcoming year.
Dylan Bundy could be a good pitcher in normal circumstances, but no pitcher, save Steve Carlton, can pitch in such abhorrent conditions and come out of it with even average statistics.
The Orioles play in a division that eats up bad teams.
While other teams are progressing with making their teams better for now or the future, the Orioles are stuck in neutral.
A bad team stuck in neutral is like having a vehicle quit on you in the middle of a high crime area.
The Orioles are simply, toast.

Geesh, I think you give the O's too much credit at this point. Neutral?! They are in reverse. How can you not have a manager going into the winter meetings. You have no idea what type of team you want to put together. You are handcuffed... In every sense.

One potentially positive development with the O's is the involvement in the international player pool. Really never participated in the past. With the new GM Mike Elias that will change. In fact I heard him saying that he will be on the road most of the year scouting players. This is a weakness in the O's organization that will hopefully be resolved in order to make them more competitive. Tough, tough Division though. They have a loooooonnnggg way to go.

[SpinningSeams]

As for Corbin, it is amazing how a guy can make so much money by being so inconsistent,
Still, he had a good year on his contract year.
That means a lot in this day and age.
I believe Corbin will pitch more like Strasburg and not like Scherzer for the Nationals.
Strasburg has never been the pitcher most thought he would be.
He can be dominant at times, but it seems like he keeps getting in his own way.
Corbin is like that too.
BUT, even with all the new analysis going around, baseball teams, like fantasy players, are prone to recency virus as well.

Some data regarding Corbin

Jeff Mathis was MLB's 2018 #1 Runs Saved Leader at the Catcher position
Nick Ahmed was MLB's 2018 #1 Runs Saved Leader at the Shortstop position
Ketel Marte was MLB's 2018 #7 Runs Saved Leader at the Second Base position
Paul Goldschmidt was MLB's 2018 #7 Runs Saved Leader at the First Base position

The Diamondbacks saved 122 total runs above average last year.

The Nationals had a -47 total runs saved above average last year.

Patrick Corbin had 48.5% ground ball rate with a 41.3% slider usage.

Draw your own conclusion

[SpinningSeams]

Thus, before we get to Spring Training, I count about half of the teams as having no chance to win, and who seemingly are in or on the verge of a rebuild, or who just tread water content to be mediocre. I fear that our game is somewhat broken, and that players will get increasingly pissed, and fans increasingly will stay away, as fewer and fewer teams go all out to win every season. Just my $0.02. I love an active Hot Stove season, but I'd like to see one where all participants are trying to win, rather than one driven by teams (including ones in the play-off hunt last year) just looking to sell-off assets and build for the future. The next CBA negotiations may be ugly; I'm already concerned.
Mike

Great editorial Mike. I would like to add to your concern.

Two teams paid the luxury tax in 2018. The Red Sox and Nationals to the tune of $10.6 million combined. Thats it! Two teams. Thats it $10.6 million. How many major markets do we have? Los Angeles x2, New York x2, San Francisco, St. Louis, Chicago, DC area, Boston, and Philadelphia.

According to ESPN, the Dodgers paid $157 million in luxury tax over the past four years. The Yankees have paid $341 million from 2003-2017. Thats a lot of moola! The tax was put in place to make a more competitive environment for MLB. Shared revenue (luxury tax) was supposed to mean higher player budgets for all teams, resulting in higher player salaries.

What seems to have occurred is a ceiling for salaries. So baseball has responded by one signing unassuming players to low budget contracts, a la Lonnie Chisenhall, for peanuts (pun intended) and two bringing up younger players to the majors, at younger ages, after playing games with their service time only pay the league minimum.

Steinbrenner said that free agency wasn't the issue with salaries, but in fact arbitration was. This year CJ Cron was non-tendered and then signed for $500,000 less with the Twins. Schoop just signed a deal with Twinkies for less than $8 million, yet was set to earn over $10 million in arbitration. How does that make any sense?

These are just couple of items to be battled out in the next CBA.

Gone are the days of George Steinbrenner. Where an owner, like the Boss, would go and pay whatever it took to get the players he wanted. Instead we have ownership groups, multiple GMs per team, analytics, exclusive TV contracts and a false salary cap that will carry MLB into the future.

I share your concern.

[DOUGHBOYS]

One potentially positive development with the O's is the involvement in the international player pool. Really never participated in the past. With the new GM Mike Elias that will change. In fact I heard him saying that he will be on the road most of the year scouting players. This is a weakness in the O's organization that will hopefully be resolved in order to make them more competitive. Tough, tough Division though. They have a loooooonnnggg way to go.

Hopefully, Elias is not serious.
HE is going on the road to scout players?
The GM?
Does he not trust his own staff already?
A GM can't do that.
That is actually a horrible thing to hear and the Orioles STILL don't even have a Manager.
Elias is off to a standing start while every other team in baseball has already passed the baton.
Get busy with YOUR job, Elias!

Elias should give some thought to hiring a one year, old guy, 'been there-done that' Manager for the coming year.
This coming year is a disaster in wait, no matter the Manager.
Why not save money there by doing an old codger a favor for a year, while trying to start some sort of rebuild within the farm system.
PLUS, why let a new, long term Manager be demoralized by a certain hurtin' in 2019?

[DOUGHBOYS]

It looks like the Royals will be signing Billy Hamilton.

Whew! That has to be a relief for them. Alcides Escobar has been safely replaced.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It will be fun to watch the 9-1-2 of the lineup of Hamilton, Mondesi, and Merrifield running wild some days though I have to admit.

[DOUGHBOYS]

For early Tyson Ross drafters....too bad.
Ross goes to a team that is looking to under spend on Starters (Matt Moore, Ross) with short term contracts.
Along with Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Fulmer, and Matt Boyd, this is a staff that will give up many, many runs.
On a good day, when one of these five does pitch well, they hand the ball to a bullpen anchored by Shane Greene.
Avoid.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I watched the MLB Network for an hour today.
If it were a drinking game, "A Great Signing" would have gotten me drunker than a bar slob.
There are no 'Bad Signings' in current baseball.
Next year, after a year of under performance or bad health, only then, will they admit that a team had a bad signing.
As of now, EVERY player is a great signing

[DOUGHBOYS]

I am not in love with Philly signing McCutchen.
If having a lot of money to spend, 50 million on an aging player would not be where I'd start with the signing of players.
Philly could be thinking that if missing out on the Harper 'sweepstakes' that they'll still have 'a guy' for the outfield.
With all the outfielders available in trade though, they may have pulled this trigger a little too quickly.
This is one of those three year signings that will probably be regretted three months into the first season.

[SpinningSeams]

I am not in love with Philly signing McCutchen.
If having a lot of money to spend, 50 million on an aging player would not be where I'd start with the signing of players.
Philly could be thinking that if missing out on the Harper 'sweepstakes' that they'll still have 'a guy' for the outfield.
With all the outfielders available in trade though, they may have pulled this trigger a little too quickly.
This is one of those three year signings that will probably be regretted three months into the first season.

Perhaps the Phills realize they are not going to be able to sign Harper..?

[DOUGHBOYS]

It's a lot like the Carlos Santana signing of last year.
Signing a player for three years when the best years are behind them.
McCutchen is being paid 50 million dollars for his past.
It wouldn't surprise me to find out that not only did Philly over pay by millions, but also gave MCutchen at least one more year than any other club.
They didn't learn a thing.

[jvetter]

It looks like the Royals will be signing Billy Hamilton.

Whew! That has to be a relief for them. Alcides Escobar has been safely replaced.

This is so true. I thought that this would be a likely landing spot for Billy Hamilton.

[Bronx Yankees]

Charlie Morton to Tampa Bay for 2 years/$30 million.

While I'm not sure that this is a great value, and it could make things tougher for my Yankees if Morton stays healthy and pitches well, I love this signing just to see Tampa Bay spending money to stay competitive with Boston and New York. It is good for baseball. Tampa Bay did a great job last season, winning 90 games with a very young team and a low payroll. Nice to see them spending some money to get better rather than resting on their laurels (like the Pirates all those years) or, worse, selling off assets. Add one team to the "trying to win" category!

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

While I agree that the Phillies overpaid for McCutchen, both in terms of dollars and years, it is not a horrible signing for them. Given how low their overall commitments are, I do not see the McCutchen signing as impeding them going after Harper or Machado. In other words, they had extra money to be stupid about. McCuthchen's best years are behind him, but he spent most of his career in a tough hitter's park, and then played most of last season in SF, which is even worse for hitters. I think he still can put up decent numbers in Philly, where he will find the home park much more to his liking. He also consistently puts up great at-bats, which is what that lineup of free-swingers need. While he no longer can play CF well, he should be more than competent in LF or RF. Finally, his makeup seems fantastic. It does not alter his fantasy value and can't be quantified, but if you believe that some players can provide value in the clubhouse, with teammates, etc., McCutchen may be one of the best in that regard. A classy guy that many of the youngsters on that team can learn from. Again, I'm not saying it is a good economic deal for Philly - something like 2 years/$24-26M would have been more like what I was expecting, but the deal may not turn out that badly from Philly's perspective. Just my two cents.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

While I agree that the Phillies overpaid for McCutchen, both in terms of dollars and years, it is not a horrible signing for them. Given how low their overall commitments are, I do not see the McCutchen signing as impeding them going after Harper or Machado. In other words, they had extra money to be stupid about. McCuthchen's best years are behind him, but he spent most of his career in a tough hitter's park, and then played most of last season in SF, which is even worse for hitters. I think he still can put up decent numbers in Philly, where he will find the home park much more to his liking. He also consistently puts up great at-bats, which is what that lineup of free-swingers need. While he no longer can play CF well, he should be more than competent in LF or RF. Finally, his makeup seems fantastic. It does not alter his fantasy value and can't be quantified, but if you believe that some players can provide value in the clubhouse, with teammates, etc., McCutchen may be one of the best in that regard. A classy guy that many of the youngsters on that team can learn from. Again, I'm not saying it is a good economic deal for Philly - something like 2 years/$24-26M would have been more like what I was expecting, but the deal may not turn out that badly from Philly's perspective. Just my two cents.

Mike

You keep qualifying things, Mike.
You could work for the MLB Network where they make every signing, "A Great Signing"....just messin with ya

It all comes down to Philly has stupid money and waaay over paid for a guy past his prime.
The ball park really doesn't matter.
A smaller ballpark takes away average as well as adds power.
Power really isn't McCutchen's game. He may want those extra batting average points.
His numbers, similar to that of Kevin Pillar.
If wanting a great clubhouse guy, Philly could have signed Ronald Torreyes for almost 50 million dollars less!
Really, it's not a horrible signing, but it's not a very good one either.
I'd be willing to bet that no other team was willing to give more than Charlie Morton money for McCutchen, both in terms of total dollars and years of contract.
It's a big Win for McCutchen...not so much for the Phillies.

[DOUGHBOYS]

OK, Lance Lynn signs a three year, 30 million dollar contract with Lance Lynn.
Why?
Just....WHY?
Texas is not competing for the next three years.
Lynn is now there Ace in not competing. Way to go, Rangers.
This signing is similar to the Tigers signing Matt Moore and Tyson Ross.
Just so they can say they signed two Starters.
For fantasy, if starting Lynn, Ross, or Moore....your team is in trouble.

Justin Bour goes to the Angels.
Like CJ Cron, Bour has been treated badly by baseball through no fault of their own.
Now Bour shares DH with one of the best hitters of All Time and the WonderBoy from last year.
Baseball just keeps screwing you, Justin!

Tanner Roark gets traded to Cincy for a cheap reliever.
The Nationals don't need Roark. Happy to get rid of his fat ass and fat salary.
I can say that, being a fat ass myself.
Cincinnati is like Colorado when trying to persuade pitchers to throw there.
Keuchel to Cincinnati? Who writes these things?
He has a choice.
Roark does not.

What the Hell is the deal with JT Realmuto and baseball writers?
When did he become Johnny Bench?
These writers all act like he is a Hall of Famer.
They call him "the best catcher in baseball"
That's like calling the New York Giants 'the best team in New Jersey' !
Who cares?
We are at a time where we don't have a best Catcher in baseball.
Catcher's Suck right now.
It's Christmas. We see those terrible fruit cakes in stores. Realmuto is the best of those fruit cakes. Woo hoo.

[DOUGHBOYS]

AND.......McCutchen gets a 3 million dollar buyout for the 4th year that Philly will never use.
This gift just keeps on giving.
This deal is kind of like hearing your wife say,
"My Mother's coming."
"She wants our bedroom"
"She wants to watch Hallmark Christmas movies"......"And Valentines Day movies too"..."She's staying three months"

JA Happ goes to the Yankees.
We knew this would happen when they didn't get Corbin.
And, it's probably a better deal than Corbin's.
The Nats saved the Yankees from themselves.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Joe Kelly signs with the Dodgers. Fantasy-wise, meh.
For the Dodgers, it offers them a viable reliever going from the AL East to the NL West.
Kelly could Close in Colorado. I don't know if that's a good thing.
By the way, expect other pitchers to come down with 'heart conditions' before having to pitch at Coors. Kidding.

Jeurys Familia signs with the Mets.
With Edwin Diaz rostered, Familia's signing gives a clear middle finger up to each early drafter who selected him for the coming year.
Take heart though.
It's the Mets.
Expect health problems for Diaz soon. Kidding.
But also not kidding.

Craig Kimbrel wants a 6-year contract for 100 million dollars.
With McCutchen signing for 53 million over three years, I guess anything is possible.
That would be a bad deal for any team though.
Five years at 80 million would be a bad deal for any team.
Four years at 65 million is tolerable.
If I were a fan of one team, I wouldn't want it to be my team signing Kimbrel for that amount.

Kimbrel looked almost inhuman during the first part of his career.
Last year, human.
Inhuman ain't coming back.
And human is only gonna get worse with each year.
Kimbrel has had a 2.44 ERA with the Red Sox. That is Elite.
BUT, before joining the Red Sox, he led the National League in Saves four straight years with the Braves and had an ERA WELL BELOW 2.00
On the outside, Kimbrel's paint job is polished and shiny.
The transmission is sticking and he's leaking oil.
He wants a new car price. I wouldn't pay it.

[DOUGHBOYS]

All in all, the Winter Meetings were a little disappointing.
I expected a few more trades. But all we got was just the slow drizzle of signings we would get in most weeks anyway.
JT Realmuto was traded a hundred times without ever being traded.
If rumors were news, the Meetings would have been a success.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good!
All I had to do was express disappointment and a big trade is made.
Encarnacion goes to the Mariners (temporary as are all things in SEA) and a draft pick.
Santana and Jake Bauers go to the Indians.
Yandy Diaz goes to Tampa with a player to be named later.

That player better be good.
Otherwise its Jake Bauers for Yandy Diaz and some also ran.
At the outset, it looks like Cleveland got a Helluva deal.
Bauers can play in the outfield.
Santana plays a great 1B and Yonder Alonso hits righties well.

Seattle got what they wanted.
Cleveland got a great deal.
Tampa sees something in Yandy Diaz that others are hesitant about.
Diaz hits liners and a lot of ground balls and is a possible wonderful gap-to-gap hitter.
In the minors, never 10 homers. Only 11 stolen bases as a tops. A Joe Panik for fantasy.
Maybe Tampa and Seattle have a wink-wink deal to follow where Encarnacion goes to Tampa.
As is, Tampa is getting screwed.