Get All You Can Get

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Get All You Can Get

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:45 am

In a draft, our job is to get all we can get. If we think that Victor Robles is better than first sex, we will 'cheat' adp to get him. By 'cheating' adp, I mean that we will over draft Robles or take him a round or so above his adp. This is where adp comes in handy.
ADP is a masses vote. A conglomeration of votes about the placement of a player.
If thinking that Robles is a third round player disguised as a seventh round draft pick that is his adp, we do not draft Robles in the third round. We simply wait till the sixth round, taking him a round before his adp.

I use Robles as an example only. Personally, I think it is crazy that this kid is going in the seventh round of most drafts.
It's the Acuna-Soto effect. Now, we (adp) believe that it is totally viable that a kid will come up to the Major Leagues and dominate.
When it comes to kids like Robles, I'd rather be a year late than too early with a high pick for a kid.
Everybody thinks about Acuna and Soto in thinking that kids will be immediate successes.
Nobody talks about the thousands of FAAB dollars wasted on Kyle Tucker and Eloy Jimenez last year.

But, I am getting off track in speaking about kids and where to draft them.
So, we've 'cheated adp and have Robles rostered.
THIS is a good way to make sure you have the player YOU want.
I write this because of several conversations I've had lately with NFBC players the last couple of days. Here are some quotes from these players...

"Wait, let me see what the Forecaster said....."
"I have him on the same tier as others...."
"Zola projects him for...."

I simply hate all three of these comments. I didn't say anything to the people I spoke with, I just cringed on the phone.
First, tiering is something we should be past in being NFBC players.
Tiering is a stepping stone in a fantasy players development. When I played in Yahoo and ESPN leagues, I used tiering. Even at the beginning of playing in the NFBC.
But soon after, I realized that tiering was a crutch.
Away for me to rationalize that I really didn't know one players skills from another.
A lot of articles still use tiering.
They;ll tell us that Jon Lester is the same as Dallas Keuchel.
Almost like they give up in distinguihing the subtle differences between these two pitchers!
And yet, we're reading this. Ugh.
It is our job to know that one is slightly better than the other in some way. If 'happy with either one', we're not doing enough study.

"Zola projects this" drives me up a wall. And I use Todd as an example because he is an NFBC player and has projections.
But you know what?
THOSE ARE TODD'S PROJECTIONS!
NOT YOURS!
What are you doing if you're quoting another man's projections?
It screams that YOU are not yet reliant on your own study or thoughts into a player.
Like tiering, another man's projections are a crutch. They're not a reason for taking one player over another.

"Let me look at the Forecaster...."
We all look at the Forecaster. It is a well-thought out analysis of sabrmetrics in a player.
Hell, I 'look at' the Forecaster to get some information.
But when speaking of a player on the phone, one should never have to say, "Let me look at the Forecaster..." before forming an opinion of a player.
That is letting the industry do the thinking for you.
I can read the Forecaster. I KNOW their thoughts. If asking about a player, I don't need what the Forecaster read to me.
I want to know YOUR opinion.

In a way, we can throw tiering, Todd's projections, the Forecaster, the NFBC folks on the phone, and fantasy magazines into adp as well.
It wouldn't change the needle on adp much at all.
It always comes back to adp.
And it all comes back to the first sentence of this post.
THAT is our job.
It is why every draft is different.
We all value players in different ways.
The drafter who takes Victor Robles in the sixth round to secure his third round reckoning has done me a favor by taking a player I have no interest in off the draft board.
In another draft, there are no Robles lovers and I have to wrestle with myself in the ninth round whether Robles is deserving of a pick there.
I didn't take him and I knew that Robles would be on none of my teams this year.
Although, I probably shouldn't say that. Drafters do get wiser.
I thought the same thing about Byron Buxton as Robles.
That with a 10th round adp, I would never roster Buxton.
But, drafters have gotten smarter since the drafting season began. Now, Buxton has a 13th round adp and I ended up selecting him in the 17th round of a draft.
PLEASE, do not reply that I got 'value' in taking Buxton there.
We don't even know if that is a good spot to take Buxton.
Afterall, no draft spot for Buxton has been a good spot yet.

I went off on a tangent about Robles and Buxton, but the message is to do the study.
Don't rely on a rationalization that 'one player is as good as the other'. We're beyond that.
We're also beyond cheating off another's paper.
Projections are more entertainment than gospel.
The Forecaster is an informational tool, not a Bible verse that needs to be quoted.
When in doubt, go back to the first sentence.
Get all you can get. THAT is the best we can do.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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