Recency Virus...Part 1

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Recency Virus...Part 1

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:59 pm

There is one thing that every, and I mean EVERY, fantasy player, publication, and speaker falls victim to.
It doesn't matter whether we are attributing a projection, an opinion, or a fact, this comes into play.
Recency virus.
Others call it recency bias, but it goes beyond that.
This virus strickens everybody.

Don't believe me?
Let me read you 10 snipets from the Forecaster.
Both from 2017 and from 2018.
In most cases, the player has not changed. But the recency virus? It has attacked!

George Springer-

2017- 'Up: 40 HR's

2018- 'His floor is rock solid, but ceiling seems to be lowering with each passing year'

I believe this is more a case of the writer thinking too much of Springer's ability for 2017.
For 2018, recency virus strikes as he lowers expectations.

Jose Abreu-

2017- 'Reliability has value'

2018- 'An injury related pass is tempting given track record,but penciling in another 30-100-.290 seems risky'

One year! One year and he has gone from reliable to risky.

Ronald Acuna Jr. -

2017- 'All the makings of a future Braves stud, just do not expect him to be one quite yet'

2018- 'This ride has already taken off'

Yeah, it has taken off, but without 'Foreception'.
Rookies are tough. We don't have to go back to how Mike Trout 'can never repeat'.
But it does seem like the Forecaster is not great with young players.
Recency virus can either hurt or help them.
In Trout's case, it could not be repeated, in Acuna's, 'The ride has already taken off'
Younger players are 'getting it' faster.


David Price

2017- 'Be cautious'

2018''This performance is repeatable'

Like Tanaka, Price elbow problems have not gone away.
They are 'out of sight, out of mind'.
THAT is what recency virus does to us.
It happened last year, we can expect the same for the coming year.
It is prototypical that we 'be cautious' after an injury year, yet expect another good year, the year after, right?
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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