Recency Virus...Part 2

[DOUGHBOYS]

Concluding.... (This post must have been too long, it wouldn't let me do it all at once...)




Freddy Freeman-

2017- 'Up; 40 HR, MVP candidate'

2018- 'Up: .320 batting average'

You guessed it. Freddy did not have a good power year last year. But he did hit .309
This, this is a poor 'Up' for me. 11 points? The Forecaster can do better.
This is recency virus again. They've given up calling the home runs after Freddy did not come close to 40 and 'settled' for 11 points of batting average.

Leonys Martin-

2017- No snipet

2018- 'Up: 20 HR, 25 SB'

This is my favorite.
Martin was not included in the previous Forecaster. I have no idea why. He did play and has played before that.
He was hurt a lot last year and they even mentioned his life threatening infection.
Still, he gets a '20/25 Up'.
It is bold. I like it and no recency virus is attached with this one.

Luis Castillo-

2017- 'Up: 3.25 E.R.A, 200 K's

2018- 'Let the hype build anew'

Every publication fell in love with this kid.
It was almost like they forgot that he threw in Cincinnati!
Look, if hype should be taken with a grain of salt for young players, it should be pitchers.
A small sample isn't enough.
Sometimes, it takes recency virus to make us aware.

Luis Severino-

2017- 'Pay the extra dollar'

2018- 'Ace stuff intact. Only inconsistency is holding him back'

This is classic recency virus.
MOST pitchers are inconsistent. Especially young pitchers.
We are trying to forecast pitchers, not hark back to just last year.
I may pay the extra dollar for the upcoming year.

Jurickson Profar-

2017- 'The panic level escalates'

2018- 'Up; 25 HR, 15 SB

Hmmmm, now where in the world could they have gotten that 'Up' from?
It is exactly five homers and five stolen bases more than last year.
From panic to last years number plus.
Again, recency virus striking and rearing its ugly head.


I don't use the Forecaster to criticize any projections.
Anybody can do projections.
And when I mean anybody, I mean that I can do projections, and if I can do it, Anybody can.
Anyway, I use the Forecaster for this post because it is just easier with their snipets and to show how recency virus effects even the best of writers,
None of us are immune.
Last year, Braves fans were whaling that they'd have to 'carry' Nick Markakis another year.
This year, they're wondering how to fill his void.
Buster Posey does not hit homers any longer and only hit five last year.
He drops down five or six rounds in early drafts (what took so long? He hasn't hit a lot of homers for years)
It shows us that sometimes we're slow to react to recency bias.
.....Or....
Jose Altuve drops from second pick to second round ....
Sometimes we react too harshly.
Recency virus is a bitch.
And she is our bitch.

[DOUGHBOYS]

And I'd like to add one more....
This one is 100 percent Recency Virus....

Dexter Fowler-

2017- 'Up 25 HR, 20 SB'

2018- 'Age suggest a big turn around cannot be banked upon this year'

Wow, Fowler got old fast!
I remember the good old days when he was supposed to be strong enough to hit 25 HR and speedy enough to steal 20 bases.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I had one more sent to me....

Jonathon Villar has zoomed up in drafts.
Yes, I know it's December. In the earliest of drafts in October and November, Villar was selected in the 10th, ninth, and eighth rounds.
Now he can be seen going in the fourth and fifth rounds. Kinda crazy.
Villar had a wonderful year three years ago.
So much so that he was a second round pick.
He KILLED his drafters by busting.

After that year, the Forecaster wrote....'Cap bidding at $10 for any hope of profit'

Now, Villar is coming off a little bit of a rebound year and hopes are through the roof.
The Recency Virus in full effect.
Now that Villar showed some signs of life.....
The Forecaster went from a $10 cap to this ....'Up...Return to 60 SB'

Holy Cow.