Trout/Betts and the First Pick Conundrum

[DOUGHBOYS]

I got the first pick in an upcoming draft. I've done some study. I've done some reckoning. I've done some re-thinking.
And no matter how much I torture myself in who to take with the first pick...the name remains the same.
Mookie Betts.

I love Mike Trout. I believe that Mike Trout is the best thing that has happened to baseball in recent years.
I never disagree with any baseball fan when they say, "Mike Trout is the best baseball player".
Trout has more skills than every player in baseball, including Betts.

BUT...and this is a big BUT....we don't draft a player because he is the best player in baseball.
We play the season-long game.
To be specific, the 2019 season-long game.
And I believe that Mookie Betts will have better overall statistics in our five categories than Mike Trout.
Here are the reasons....

1. If Trout and Betts were traded for each other, I would make Trout my number one pick.
Batting in Boston's lineup, with Benintendi in front of Betts and JD Martinez behind him puts Betts in one of the most enviable positions in baseball.
Trout has old man Upton and old man Pujols around him.
It is no wonder that Trout walked 122 times last year.
I expect that number to rise a little more.
What pitcher wants to get beat by the best hitter in baseball?
Trout can be pitched around. Betts cannot.

2. Betts has ready-made RBI and Runs. Trout does not.
When Trout walks, we root for a stolen base. In the past he has delivered (more on this later), but then what?
He does not score as much as his statistics show he should.
Trout reached base almost 300 times last year.
He hit 39 homers. Had 67 extra base hits. 24 stolen bases.
Yet, 'only' scored 101 Runs.
Ozzie Albies scored more Runs (105) with far less impressive statistics.
Betts 129 Runs Scored is more of what we're looking for.
Trout has more power than Betts, but had one RBI less than Betts.
With Runs and RBI, we are looking for traffic on the bases surrounding our hitter.
Betts has the traffic of a subway, Trout, a country road.

3. Betts has been the better fantasy player. Whether using the place he plays or traffic around him, or any method, during the last two years, here are the comparisons...

Trout....310/193/72/151/46

Betts....301/230/56/182/56

Three Years?.....

Trout....310/316/101/251/76

Betts....308/352/87/295/82

The Home Run edge goes to Trout. Average and stolen bases cancel.
The big difference becomes Betts and his teammates in Boston with RBI and Runs.
That difference is also increasing in that Boston plays with the same group again this year.
Most Boston players like Benintendi, Bogaerts, Martinez are are budding or prime-of-their-lives Stars.
For Trout, Pujols and Upton are another year older with nobody else in the Angels lineup to prop up his counting Runs/RBI for next season.

This all said, I dislike drafting out of the number one or number two slot.
I dislike the aesthetics.
Sure, I have who I consider the best player to help me obtain statistics in the five categories next year...but, NOW WHAT?
I have to wait 28 agonizing picks till my turn comes round again.
Watching players that will most likely come close to Betts and Tout's numbers, only to see them doubled with more offense or the best pitchers going off the board.
By the time it comes back to me, I feel like I am getting the carcass that wolves have picked clean.

I also dislike the roster construction challenge.
After having what we consider the best fantasy player in tow, we have to follow up.
The knee-jerk reaction is to tell ourselves, "WE NEED PITCHING!"
Even if the great pitchers are long gone, we don't want to miss out on pitching. Of any kind.
ADP tells us that the eight best pitchers are gone. More in some drafts.
Not only that, but some teams have a head start with two offensive players and have begun filling positional needs in the infield.

It's a tough spot.
Before asking ourselves Trout or Betts, the question may be, is Trout and Betts worth having that draft spot?
For some, it'll be a resounding "YES!"
With the first pick assured, I'm not so sure.