In Our World..The Past IS the Future

[DOUGHBOYS]

In a world where we are trying to foresee the future, we are still creatures of habit.
AND, we are this way because of the past.
For instance, I have never seen a draft this year where Max Scherzer has NOT been the first pitcher selected.
When we ask ourselves, 'Self, who is the best pitcher in baseball?"
Max Scherzer is never the immediate answer.
He is grouped with pitchers like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Verlander, and others.
BUT, in our world, we can't begin to think of taking another pitcher first.

The past tells us that Scherzer is dominant on the mound. Has been for years.
Who are we to say that will change?
He pitches for a good team. He pitches in the right league. Never gets hurt.
We cannot say anything bad about Max Scherzer.

Justin Verlander went through a faze where he was not very good.
We punished him for it by dropping his roundage.
Since then, Verlander has gotten back in our good graces.
His fastball has miraculously been restored and he is the same guy he was before the temporary suckness.
Scherzer has never experienced suckness.
In fact, during the last six years, in a time where Starters don't last long in games, get this, Scherzer has never thrown less than 200 innings and never struck out less than 240 batters.
Not only that but recency virus is on his side. He set a career high in strike outs just last year with 300.
300!

For five years, Verlander and Scherzer threw on the same team, the Detroit Tigers.
The team also had the best hitter in baseball in Miguel Cabrera.
(Thus illustrating that the signing of Harper or Machado, or even both does nor necessarily make ANY team an instant contender...but that is for another day).
Then, neither were the first pitcher selected in fantasy drafts.
That honor went to Clayton Kershaw.
Then, Kershaw started having back problems.
He still held onto the number one pitcher status as fantasy'ers refused to believe that it would fell Kershaw.
It did.

Now, Scherzer is undoubtedly the numero uno pitcher.
Although we enjoy forecasting breakout seasons (re: Turner, Soto, Guerrero, and of course Buxton), we never try to forecast 'breakdown' seasons.
If anybody is ready for a breakdown season it is Max Scherzer.
Scherzer has logged 206 innings per season for 10 years.
Those are 1980 type stats.
He has never had a swoon like Verlander.
He has been the energizer bunny.

Scherzer is the number one pitcher because we can't see him any other way.
He has given us zero reason NOT to be the best pitcher.
We rely on that past.
We don't forecast 'breakdown's'.
There is no glory in predicting that.
If Javy Baez has a breakout year and was drafted in the 10th round last year, his drafters are happy and they will be lauded.
If we avoid Max Scherzer this year, thinking a 'breakdown'...
Nothing.

They say that age is only a state of mind.
Scherzer's real age is 35 this coming year.
Most pitchers show a lot of wear and tear by this age.
Felix Hernandez is only 32.
But in baseball years and especially in fantasy minds, he is an old man.
Scherzer's body is older than Hernandez, his arm younger.
In our world, age is only a state of arm.

What do all of us do during the off season to prepare for the upcoming year?
We study.
We can't study the future.
We study the past for glimpses (we think) that we may see in the future.
It's a conundrum.
For a guy like Scherzer, study is not necessary.
It becomes more of a question of will he carry on or not.

None of us know if this is the year.
The year that Scherzer does something other than what he has done for the last 10 years.
We do not predict the breakdown of Scherzer by picking another pitcher ahead of him.
We simply, avoid him if that is the thought.
His past is vast.
He is the object in the rear view mirror that appears larger than life.
We try to foresee the future in drafts, but it is that past that dictates our every move.