Ziggers and Zaggers

[DOUGHBOYS]

We've all heard it before....
"I'm in this draft, and Man, they are really pushing pitching!"
OR, and this is my favorite...
"There is no way the Overall winner comes from this league, one drafter took five pitchers in a row to start his draft!"

Let's break down the top pitchers.
In the first five rounds, in most drafts, there are approximately 25 pitchers taken. An average of five pitchers per round.
But here, 'average' does not apply.
The first round in most drafts have Scherzer taken first in the middle of the first round. DeGrom then follows near the back end of the same round.
And sometimes, Sale, Kluber, or another pitcher is taken at the back end.
The second round has drafters beginning with the thought of getting their power guys (usually Harper, Judge, Stanton, Goldschmidt, Story, or Freeman (yeah, Freeman is more of an avg. guy) or 'over drafting a pitcher.
I say 'overdrafting' because ADP tells us that most back end drafters prefer their power guys.
It is in the middle of the second round where drafters get the idea that 'pitching is being pushed'.
The reality being that the top players left after those power guys are drafted ARE PITCHERS.
Not only that, but secure with their top picks of Trout, Betts, Lindor, Ramirez, Martinez, etc, these drafters want to supply power pitching along with their power picks from the first round.
We will see Kluber, Nola, Kershaw, Verlander, Cole, Carrasco, Buehler, Snell, Bauer, and Severino selected from the middle of the second round to middle-late third rounds.
That is 10 pitchers in a very short time and does seem like pitching is being pushed.
The reality is that it is not.
Drafters have just found their 'sweet spot' in where the best of pitchers meet the not-so-elite of hitting.
In these first three rounds, each drafter has made a decision on pitching in their own way.
The front end of the draft makes the decision to match their prize hitter with one or two pitchers.
The middle and later first rounders have a choice to start Scherzer, deGrom, or at the back end, 'push' two pitchers with the first two selections.

By the end of the third round, most pitchers mentioned have been drafted.
Usually, there are still two or three pitchers that can be selected in this area...Syndergaard, Corbin, and Paxton.
These pitchers are taken at the back end of the third round or beginning of the fourth round by the drafters who liked beginning their draft with Bregman, Baez, and Altuve have been paired with the muscle guys mentioned and these drafters want pitching now to make them feel all warm and cozy.
The fourth round also begins the relief pitching aspect. Diaz and Treinen have replaced the triumvirate of Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman.
These two will be taken in the fourth or fifth rounds.
By this time, all the 'Aces' are gone.
It is time to speculate if needing a top pitcher.
Taillon, Flaherty, Greinke, Bumgarner, and Clevinger are selected in the fourth and fifth rounds.
They are drafted by drafters who wanted hitters the first three rounds or by drafters who want to 'load up' on pitching.
'Loading up' on pitching scares other drafters. If seeing one drafter loading up, they will say that pushing is being 'pushed' or that there is no way an Overall winner comes from this draft.
That, of course, is hogwash.
While this drafter is having his buffet with pitchers, good hitters are falling.
Drafters like calling these players 'Value picks' (Don't get me started).
These 'value' drafters snatch up the hitting that has fallen.
Despite a drafter taking five pitchers in five rounds, it is balanced out by other drafters who would have selected pitching, but found the 'value' to hard to pass in selecting hitters.

As said, in most drafts, there are 25 pitchers taken in the first five rounds.
HOW those 25 pitchers are selected is of little matter.
The ratio is still two hitters to every pitcher.
For every two zigs, there is a zag.
If a drafter selects five zags, he feels he has zagged while everybody zigged.
Even upsetting Ziggers in the process.
The truth is that there are still the same fish in the pitching pond from rounds six to fifty.
And that the Ziggers will still have as much of a chance to win the Overall as drafts without Zaggers.

[Thurman15]

Well said Dan. As a group, we really do have patterns. 2 big pitchers in round 1, a bunch in round 2 and then the remaining "very good" pitchers in round 3. By the end of round 5 in every draft, the pitchers taken are the same, and the remaining pitchers are the same.

Same with hitting. 1st round is filled with "best overall hitters" (Scherzer and Degrom are exceptions) and then rounds 2 and 3 are the power hitters, that are likely lower average hitters and likely don't steam many bases. Sure an individual drafter can go a different path, but overall the pool will have the same pattern. Pretty well every draft.