Hitting the Trey

[DOUGHBOYS]

As soon as last season was over (or even before), there were lists about who would go in the first round of 2019 drafts. Recency bias is extraordinary when players are still playing. With that in mind, some lists omitted Jose Ramirez. The writers knew that Ramirez had had a remarkable year, but fresh in their minds were his horrible post season and finish to the 2018 season.
Ramirez hit .210 over August and September of last year. Then, went 0-11 in the playoffs.
Cooler heads prevailed. Drafters looked at his overall body of work for the season and Ramirez is now the number three pick in NFBC ADP.

What about this season?
To tell the truth, I haven't drafted Ramirez. It's not that I don't think a lot of him. I think he's a great player.
What I don't like is what Cleveland has done around him this off season.
Encarnacion is gone.
Brantley is gone.
Really, the best thing Cleveland has going for them this year is that the rivals in their division are horrible.
Cleveland has a window to make the World Series and they're closing it on themselves.
Sure, they can win their division.
But like last year, they'll get killed in the playoffs.
And honestly, the Twins have made great strides. It wouldn't surprise me to see them give the Indians a go for first place in the division.

Getting back to Ramirez, fantasy drafters like to see their players in a plush lineup. Ramirez lineup got thinner around him.
Now, with the Lindor injury, Ramirez will start the year as Mike Trout will. They will be the only large nemesis for pitchers to face when pitching against their teams. It is why I prefer Betts to Trout in drafts. Trout may be the better player, Betts is in the better position to pad stats.
I believed that when Lindor took a hit in ADP, that Ramirez may too.
He has not.
I understand.
When looking at the stats of players in default, 39/34 is tough to pass.
But, I would...and have.

The stars just don't seem to be aligning for Cleveland during this off season.
Last year, Ramirez always seemed to be up at the right times.
Especially against bad teams.
Against the two best teams (BOS, HOU) in the American League last year, Ramirez hit .180 with one homer. That does not even include his 0-11 in the playoffs.
What Ramirez IS, is a great cripple killer. I like fantasy cripple killers.
We don't care where we get the stats or who the stats come against. Just give us the stats, Ma'am.
Against BAL, CIN, CWS, DET, and MIN, Ramirez line was .328/55/23/50/12
Without last years lineup around him, it'd be tough to see him getting the same pitches even from these lowly teams.
He'll still see the crappy pitching a lot. That crappy pitching will just be a little more selective against him.
Plus, there is that recency bias.
Ramirez hit .302 with 29 homers before the All Star break. He was a top 10 player in every one of our categories!
After the All Star break, .218, 10 home runs.
The gaudy stat line from last year makes Ramirez a credible number three ADP.
Everything else, not so much.

[DOUGHBOYS]

By the way, I started two drafts during the last three days.
Ramirez went third in both.