NFBC Message Boards

I had a one hour discussion (argument) with a well-known SABR influenced writer (He asked that I not use his name at least till reading this).
Look, I'm not a smart guy, I never said I was. If I was, I would probably understand the numbers that SABRWriters come up with when putting their numbers in their articles.
I do know that being smart is knowing what I am dumb about.
Anyway, this writer goes on and on about BABIP, WAR, xwOBA, and a bunch of other fancy letters. It is almost as if these guys sit on a calculator like an astronomer looks for new stars , so they can let the world know that a new star, eh, new stat has been discovered.
And this is what started the 'discussion'.

Fercrissakes, we don't need new stats, was my retort.
I told this guy that fellas like him keep messing around with apples while we're playing with oranges. No matter how many new stats are made. No matter if we believe in which letter arrangement that they come up with, and no matter a players exit velocity or fly ball percentage or swing and miss,
NO MATTER ALL OF THAT...it still comes down to the 10 Commandments

No matter how these fancy statistics are gathered (and this really pissed off the writer), one of the categories we shoot for in an offensive player is the very category abhorred by these statisticians everywhere.
RBI.
This is what I mean about them constructing new apples, while we're still playing with oranges.
The category that they refuse to accept, the category despised and never used in their calculations is the very category that is a basis for our game!
I asked how they can quantify a category that they would just as soon have eliminated?
No real answer to that question.
Just statistics that 'may' result in more RBI.
BLAH BLAH BLAH.

I don't see these fellas winning NFBC leagues hardly at all. I don't. Not being mean, just stating a fact.
They fall in love with their own stats. Preach about them. Can't believe that others don't understand or use these stats, then apply them to their drafts....and fail.
The writer told me that there HAS TO BE something more than the eye test and five categories.
I semi-agreed.
But applying a statistic heavily weighted towards getting on base means very, very little in the NFBC.
If Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera obtains one of their precious walks, what happens?
The writer claimed that each 'has done their job' and become a possibility to score.
To which he received a five minute barrage from me.
Both did NOT 'do their job'!
Their job is to fill roto categories. OBP is not a roto category.
They, for our purposes, have just given us one less at bat.
I told him that batting average is down to a terrible average of .248
The chances of Cabrera or Votto scoring are less than 25%
They are supposed to be category fillers and leaving us a 25% chance of changing ONE category is a good thing?!
I'd rather have a player swinging at a 3-2 pitch just off the corner than taking a walk with runners on second and third anytime!
Put THAT in your stat pipe and smoke it!

The writer called out some of 'The Forecasters' data as being outdated. (the probable reason he did not want his name disclosed)
I responded that it didn't matter.
At the very least, the Forecaster is staying true to their original theories.
It's understandable for most readers.
And for most readers, their synopsis of each player is what most of their audience remembers.
They don't thrust xwOBA on us to prove that they know what new statistics are the new hit in SABRville.

Part 2 (these stupid boards won't let me have a long post for some reason, maybe they know me too well)


At the end of the conversation, I let him know that there are thousands of ways to kill an ant.
Literally thousands.
When having thousands of ways to kill an ant, why rack your brain in coming up with a new way?
Each of us has our own way of determining which player we are going to draft in which round.
And unless it is two writers/SABRS partnering together in a draft, I doubt there will be a pause in any draft so that two partners can argue over a player's xwOBA.
Deciding on a player rarely comes down to a new stat.
It ALWAYS comes down to the 10 Commandments.

One last thing, during the argument (conversation), he told me that we need all the tools we can get.
I disagreed.
I looked at his xwOBA and knew that I would never use it.
Singles, doubles, triples, HBP, BB, no matter how these events are sliced, they don't readily pertain to AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB
Look, I told him, the more you guys rely on OTHER numbers, the more you're getting away from the 10 Commandments.
He finally had to ask what the 10 Commandments were...
AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB/ERA/K/W/SV/WHIP.
Simple.
And as soon as I mentioned those pitching stats, he went off on a new stat for pitching.
Ugh.
I know baseball has changed. I know that smarter guys are running it and using sabrmetrics.
All good.
What hasn't changed is the 10 Commandments for our game.
The arrival of those 10 Commandments can be sliced, diced, and julienne any which way we please.
We ended the harassment (argument) (discussion) with that.
He'll go his way. I'll go mine.

Just one more thing that is kind of related to this, but a different conversation.....

A friend told me that he was not drafting Kyle Schwarber.
I asked why.
"Have you seen his splits? They're horrible vs. lefties!"
I knew they were.
Schwarber had one home run in 76 at bats vs. left handers last year.
That is a big debit and a reason to LOWER a player in a draft, not disregard him.
So, I asked my friend, if Schwarber were to slip down into the 23rd round, would you take him?
He paused.
I told him that the silence was all I needed to hear. Every drafter has their price on a player.
He would draft Schwarber at SOME point, the price just has to be better than normal.

Splits are strange.
My friend said he wouldn't draft Schwarber using his splits as the reason.
To me, that is draft day reckoning.
When the real season begins, we're free to use a guy like Schwarber as we wish.
If the Cubs are going up against Bumgarner and Holland in a three game series...DON'T PLAY HIM.
The splits have no effect to a player that is sitting on your fantasy bench.

What drives me crazy are positive splits and stupid Managers.
Scott Schebler hits lefties better than righties.
He has done this his whole MLB career.
Still, he is benched against the lefties.
His Manager will say, "Yeah, we're giving Scott a blow against the tough lefty today."
That SOUNDS smart, but if he were really smart instead of just thinking he was smart, he would bench Schebler against the tough righty.
Last year, Joey Gallo hit a homer nearly once in every 10 at bats vs. lefties.
Against righties, once every 14 at bats.
His average a little better vs. lefties.
He should not be benched vs. lefties. But he will.
The difference being that I can start Gallo and Schebler in a lefty dominated series.
The drawback being the Manager who doesn't know jack.
With Schwarber, I bench him...and of course, he'll hit a grand slam coming off the bench vs. a right handed reliever

The point is that all players have their uses.
If a player is an accomplished hitter or pitcher, he should be drafted.
Find your price and think about how to best use that player when manipulating your roster that will put these players in their best lights.
We can only do the best at our jobs in hopes that the players do the same.