NFBC Message Boards

(Again, Part one and part two...)

"What do you need in each category to win the Main Event?"

"I don't know"

"WHAT?" "You've been in the NFBC for 15 years and you don't know?"

"Nope"

That was part of a conversation with an NFBC fella who is doing the Main Event for the first time this year. I told him where he could find those numbers and asked why he needed to know.
He was doing his 'projections' of players and was devising a plan to get all of his necessary numbers.
"You're wasting study time".
He took offense and told me that projections ARE a part of his study.

I know that we all have our different ways of preparing for the Main Event. In 2005, my first Main Event, I had a plan.
If possible and I had the right draft spot (no KDS back then), I was going to draft Johan Santana with my first pick and Roger Clemens with my eighth pick. David Ortiz was going to be my second pick, best player available third, Jose Reyes fourth.
Everybody else would be dictated by the flow of the draft.
That was my plan.
There was no ADP. What there were, was a few satelites at the NFBC and A LOT of mock drafts everywhere else.
I did mock drafts for three days before declaring them worthless.
Like a friend of mine said, "People are not the same when it's not their dick on the chopping block!"

It was a simple plan.
I ended up getting every player I targeted, along with getting more who had wonderful seasons.
I ran away with my league and finished second in the Overall.
At the time, there were four drafters in my draft who predicted a bad finish for my team.
They used projections.
I kept looking at my team, wondering what I had done wrong.
I got the players I wanted. I was very happy with my draft.
Yet, when the guys with the projections told me after the draft that I had wasted my money...
Their projection had left me with dejection.

My wife and I drove nine hours to get to Las Vegas to draft. We stayed in a cheap hotel off the strip that Friday night.
We checked out Saturday morning, so that I could draft and be on the road again.
She must have read that roster back to me a hundred times on the way back home.
Where had I gone wrong?

(Part 2)

The season started and my team flew out of the gate.
I won the weekly prize for best Overall team for the first week. I would also win another later in the year.
I thought it appropriate that one of the prizes was a signed picture of Roger Clemens since he was helping my team.
Man, I loved the concept of having weekly prizes.
It kept all teams engaged to the very end of the year.
My team stayed in first place Overall for most of the year. And I ran away with my league.
But the team would fade in September and I counted myself lucky that I finished second.
I loved the whole thing. What a wonderful experience.

Really, I didn't think again about those four projectors till a week after the season had ended.
None had cashed. Each had their own team as a winner.
It got me thinking that we are ALL projectors.
Just as I projected Santana, and Clemens, and Ortiz, and Reyes, and others to have great seasons...they had done the same with their players.
The difference being that I drafted the names, the projectors drafted numbers that went with the names.
Since then, I've thought about doing that.
Then, decided it was folly.
The Main Event has a lot of moving parts.
If projecting Nolan Arenado with .300/101/38/112/2 and putting it on paper, it doesn't make it more apt to happen.
And what happens if Arenado misses a month with an injury?
Those numbers are kaput and you are using a replacement player to pick up the slack.

The draft is half of the NFBC battle or probably 65 per cent if hazarding a guess.
FAAB is the other half or 35 per cent..
Nobody projects FAAB.
Nobody.
My point is that we can go into a draft with numbers by names, but we are no more ready than the fella who just has names.
Each Main Event draft is different.
Each season is different.
The season will destroy most projections.

One story...
Those four projectioners had Reyes with 25 stolen bases or less.
Reyes had a history of hamstring problems. However, I had read a story about how Reyes had changed his running style in order to improve the wear and tear on his hamstrings. I bought into the story.
The projectioners went on past history. Telling me that Reyes had never even played 81 games, let alone a full season.
Reyes would steal 60 bases that year. He would play in 161 games.
Those projectioners also used the word 'value' in almost every sentence.
I grew to (as you know) hate the word in that context.
All the way home, I asked how could any player have 'value' when the season has yet to begin.
After the season was over, I realized that the 'value' was only on their spreadsheets and in their own minds.

So...What numbers do you need to win the Main Event?
The answer is simple.
If drafting the best players, the numbers will magically fall in place.