Sharks and Sheep

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Sharks and Sheep

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:14 am

We like to say there are 'Sharks' and 'Sheep' in our game.
The 'Sharks' are the aggressors. The drafters who aren't afraid of following their own way. For them, it has worked in the past and it should work in the future.
The 'Sheep' are said to be (mis)lead by other drafters, news reports, even posts on a Message Board.
Supposedly, 'Sharks' are willing to jump on their players long before 'Sheep' are around to graze on those same players.

Let's help out the sheep a little here.
In looking at the Main Event drafts, I was amazed at a few things.
And when we're amazed at a few things, it's a good bet that 'Sharks' are behind it :D

Shane Bieber has been proposed by Baseball HQ as a pitcher who may have a breakout season.
His statistics last year, would lead Sheep to not follow him much.
The 1.33 WHIP and 4.55 ERA when looking at the default doesn't get them interested.
However Bieber was averaging more than a strike out an inning while giving up those runs.
He only walked a batter once in almost every six innings.
Like his brother, Justin (made up) there is a reason Shane Bieber has many followers. (That is made up too, I have no reasons why people 'follow' Justin Bieber. He is like the Monkees of the 60's. Very little talent, but the kids love him)
Shane Bieber has become a sexy pick.
In the recent first weekend of Main Event Drafts, Bieber went higher than already established pitchers.
Craig Kimbrel, Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, and Josh Hader to name a few.

Bieber is the fifth Starting Pitcher on the Indians staff. Both in real and fantasy baseball.
It's why every prediction is for the Indians to win their division.
All five of Cleveland's Starters were selected in those drafts before 13 teams had their FIRST Starter selected. Amazing.
Bieber was drafted as high as the seventh round, and never below the third pick in the ninth round.
In a two week period in January, Bieber was being drafted in the 11th and 12th rounds
Sharks are circling Bieber.

We've done our pitching Sharks fav, let's do a hitter of import.
I love Trevor Story.
He has everything we love in a fantasy player. Five category goodness.
For most of the drafting year, Story has been a second round pick.
He has been drafters who have missed out on Lindor, Bregman, Baez, Turner, and Machado's consolation prize.
A consolation prize worth more than thought.
In January drafts, Story was drafted behind all those middle infielders.
For Main Events, he was drafted in the first round. His lowest selection was just three picks into the second round.
He passed hitters like Altuve, Bregman, Lindor, and Javy Baez.
He was the 10th hitter in ADP!
Ahead of all first baseman, including Freeman and Goldy.

Story had a sore arm at the end of last year.
The bet is that the Sharks are convinced that arm is ok.
He was drafted with the ninth pick in a Main Event.
Bets are, that is was no Sheep taking him that high.
The story on Story is out.
And like Shane Bieber, the Sharks are circling.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

ChipChopChip
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:46 pm

Re: Sharks and Sheep

Post by ChipChopChip » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:34 pm

I would think the sharks would have been in on Story last year. I expect some regression this year. I guess that is because I am probably a sheep

Money
Posts: 1585
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 6:00 pm

Re: Sharks and Sheep

Post by Money » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:51 pm

Sharks is a name that I believe goes to those that have had a reasonable amount of success in these parts. The term sheep was coined a while back by those that perceive themselves as sharks. In my opinion it is a derogatory term meant for those new joining the NFBC who pay attention a little to closely to the ADP. It is a downer when promoting the NFBC to new players.

Those "Sharks" that significantly jump ADP, are attempting to be the smartest guy in the room, they rarely succeed. They have a self inflated view of themselves and their talent level and need to show off with their shiny new toy. Have at it SHARKS, jump the ADP by a couple of rounds and be the smartest guy in the room. I am a sheep who would love to have you in my league as we jockey for the players we will follow all summer.

Best of luck everyone this year. Especially us sheep.
Joe

Money
Posts: 1585
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 6:00 pm

Re: Sharks and Sheep

Post by Money » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:48 am

In looking at the 8 main events and 2 high stakes leagues that have taken place already there is a wide range of highs and lows on may players. One that I found interesting is Shohei Ohtani. In the 8 mains he went from 193 to 259 and an average of 220. In the Super he was taken at 190. Yet in the $5,000 NY Ultimate he was not taken until pick number 304.

That on average is a 6 round difference, from the low, it is an 8 round difference. I am neutral on him and will most likely not own him at the going price. I guarantee you though, being the sheep that I am, I would certainly take him in the 17th,18th, 19th or 20th round where he was passed over in the Ultimate.
Joe

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Sharks and Sheep

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:22 pm

Money wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:48 am
In looking at the 8 main events and 2 high stakes leagues that have taken place already there is a wide range of highs and lows on may players. One that I found interesting is Shohei Ohtani. In the 8 mains he went from 193 to 259 and an average of 220. In the Super he was taken at 190. Yet in the $5,000 NY Ultimate he was not taken until pick number 304.

That on average is a 6 round difference, from the low, it is an 8 round difference. I am neutral on him and will most likely not own him at the going price. I guarantee you though, being the sheep that I am, I would certainly take him in the 17th,18th, 19th or 20th round where he was passed over in the Ultimate.
That's really not a sheep/shaark thing, Joe.
Really, it is just two different ways to approach a draft.
Heck. Even approaching each round of a draft.
I'll go to my Main Event draft today....

Fifth round of my draft, the pick is coming to me....
I like two players...
Daniel Murphy is the 'cool pick'.
I know the Sharks like him. I know that his ADP has moved astronomically to the fourth round in Main Events.
Here it is the fifth round and the cool kids haven't taken him.
I've already drafted a 2B.
Murphy offers a different statosphere than Whit Merrifield.
A batting average hero in Colorado....homers....runs....rbi....two positions.
It's easy to see why the cool kids like Murphy.
I didn't take him.

You see, I knew some of the players that I would pinpoint later.
If getting them, or even some of them, I knew that Jean Segura would be a better fit for me than Murphy.
And I know that Merrifield and Segura have similar skill sets. Yet, there are few players that share these skill sets LATER in the draft.
Murphy is cool. Murphy should have gone first according to ADP. Murphy, most of the time, is the play.
But for me, Segura was the pick.
Two picks later, Murphy was drafted.
It's just part of drafting.

If holding off on drafting Ohtani till he has been passed over a couple of rounds. it is neither a sheep or shark trick.
It is being a bargain hunter.
In this Main Event, I drafted Willy Adames in the 22nd round.
I didn't need Adames. I sure as Hell wasn't looking to draft Adames.
Sometimes though, we know we're getting a bargain.
Adames had a Main Event ADP of 227. I selected him with pick 328.
Almost free, in my book.

We have to keep our minds open. I know Sharks do that. Certainly, they pinpoint players, but they're also not above picking up a bargain.
Everybody likes bargains.
In a few days, we'll see if our 'bargains' have value.
In my case, we'll find out who was right on Adames.
The drafters in many drafts who put him at pick 227.
Or the drafters in my Main Event who thumbed their nose at him seven rounds later than that.
I can't wait :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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