Sunday Star Syndrome

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Sunday Star Syndrome

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:29 am

The Stars all aligned correctly this past Sunday for a wildly crazy FAAB on one player...

First, he is a Yankee. Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Rockies get more love from NFBC folks than any other teams when it comes to hitters.
The Yankees combine a potent lineup with a small ball park that has FAAB'ers salivating at getting a hitter from the Bronx Bombers.

Second, he will get every day at bats. At least temporarily.
Aaron Hicks will come back some day. Giancarlo Stanton will do the same.

Third, and this may be the most important, he got to play against Baltimore pitching and killed it over the weekend.
I am talking about Clint Frazier.
Frazier has talent. He's been a 'prospect' seemingly forever.
And this past weekend, Frazier ripped Baltimore pitching.
He hit a homer on Saturday. Then had two homers and four hits against the Orioles on Sunday.
The strong weekend did two things.
It solidified his starting spot in the lineup.
But more importantly to us, it made him an expensive proposition for FAAB.
If a player available on FAAB has a great Sunday, as Frazier did, it drives up his price exponentially.

Here is what we paid for him...

Clint Frazier Luis Cessa 349 Main Event Online 3/16 @ 1:00 pm ET #753 E720
Clint Frazier Zack Cozart 288 Main Event Las Vegas 3/25 @ 5:00 pm PT #996 Chicks Love My Long Balls
Clint Frazier Albert Almora Jr. 277 Main Event Online 3/26 @ 8:00 pm ET #1021 Chico Linds Hermanos O
Clint Frazier Keon Broxton 267 Main Event Las Vegas 3/23 @ 10:00 am PT #955 I Have The Best Dragons
Clint Frazier Franklin Barreto 266 Main Event Online 3/24 @ 7:00 pm ET #945 WARNING TRACK POWER 2
Clint Frazier Carl Edwards Jr. 249 Main Event New York 3/17 @ 9:00 am ET #758 modsax
Clint Frazier Franchy Cordero 249 Main Event New York 3/16 @ 1:00 pm ET #755 SaxMod
Clint Frazier Scott Schebler 225 Main Event New York 3/16 @ 1:00 pm ET #754 Troyalty
Clint Frazier Hunter Pence 214 Main Event Online 3/27 @ 8:00 pm ET #1045 Mickey Dolan
Clint Frazier Brandon Crawford 208 Main Event Online 3/25 @ 8:00 pm ET #986 Lake Erie Warriors DSA
Clint Frazier Ian Happ 197 Main Event Online 3/26 @ 8:00 pm ET #1019 Chest rockwell main
Clint Frazier Eric Lauer 191 Main Event Las Vegas 3/23 @ 10:00 am PT #931 Sack & Luny
Clint Frazier Alex Verdugo 189 Main Event Online 3/23 @ 1:00 pm ET #924 One Eyed Jack
Clint Frazier Troy Tulowitzki 189 Main Event Online 3/24 @ 7:00 pm ET #944 One Eyed Jack
Clint Frazier Carlos Gonzalez 188 Main Event Online 3/26 @ 8:00 pm ET #1022 Home Run Derbies
Clint Frazier Troy Tulowitzki 188 Main Event Online 3/27 @ 8:00 pm ET #1042 Home Run Derbies
Clint Frazier Scott Kingery 188 Main Event Online 3/27 @ 10:00 pm ET #1167 One Eyed Jack
Clint Frazier Carlos Gonzalez 188 Main Event Online 3/21 @ 8:00 pm ET #862 One Eyed Jack
Clint Frazier Alex Reyes 179 Main Event Online 3/26 @ 8:00 pm ET #1020 SaxWin Main
Clint Frazier Trevor May 177 Main Event Las Vegas 3/23 @ 10:00 am PT #930 Vegas Vandals
Clint Frazier Brandon Drury 159 Main Event Online 3/25 @ 8:00 pm ET #987 ctm & gst
Clint Frazier Matt Shoemaker 139 Main Event Las Vegas 3/24 @ 4:00 pm PT #946 Dawson
Clint Frazier Alex Reyes 130 Main Event Las Vegas 3/23 @ 10:00 am PT #929 Bronx Win ME1
Clint Frazier Josh James 126 Main Event Online 3/27 @ 8:00 pm ET #1041 King of Queens
Clint Frazier Justin Bour 122 Main Event New York 3/16 @ 1:00 pm ET #756 Fortune and glory kid
Clint Frazier Sandy Alcantara 115 Main Event Las Vegas 3/23 @ 10:00 am PT #926 El Scorchos Main
Clint Frazier Bryse Wilson 113 Main Event Online 3/27 @ 8:00 pm ET #1043 Eagle Nation
Clint Frazier Alex Verdugo 101 Main Event Las Vegas 3/23 @ 10:00 am PT #927 DDK
Clint Frazier Bryse Wilson 93 Main Event Online 3/27 @ 8:00 pm ET #1044 Oaktown 2
Clint Frazier Ivan Nova 90 Main Event Chicago 3/16 @ 12:00 pm CT #757 Nolter
Clint Frazier Matt Kemp 89 Main Event Online 3/23 @ 1:00 pm ET #925 I wanted that guy
Clint Frazier Greg Bird 85 Main Event Las Vegas 3/23 @ 10:00 am PT #928 tEeNaGe WaStElAnD LV MAIN
Clint Frazier Curtis Granderson 72 Main Event Online 3/16 @ 1:00 pm ET #751 Chart
Clint Frazier Scott Kingery 71 Main Event Las Vegas 3/21 @ 5:00 pm PT #868 0.002906 of a Trout
Clint Frazier Teoscar Hernandez 58 Main Event Online 3/16 @ 1:00 pm ET #752 BonoElf
Clint Frazier Trevor Rosenthal 47 Main Event Las Vegas 3/21 @ 5:00 pm PT #869 Dutch Mafia 2
Clint Frazier Justin Bour 25 Main Event Las Vegas 3/27 @ 5:00 pm PT #1046 DOUGHBOYS

If the two home run game had happened earlier in the week, the price for Frazier probably would have seen a discount of 25% off these prices.

If the two home run game would have been a simple 4-0-1-0 box score, at least 50% would have been the discount.
But, we are subject to Sunday Star Syndrome.
The worst of recency bias.
We see the 4-5 and two home runs and feel like we HAVE to Have this guy.
No matter that it was Baltimore pitching, which would be AAA pitching for most other teams.
Frazier vs BAL...556/3/3/6/0
Frazier vs everybody else...177/0/0/2/0
This is a very small sample size.
Clint Frazier could be a wonderful player.
Heck, several FAAB buyers are betting on it.
But the smart money is on these drafters falling victim to Sunday Star Syndrome.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Thurman15
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:27 pm

Re: Sunday Star Syndrome

Post by Thurman15 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:03 pm

I'm a huge Yankee fan, but I'm concerned that Frazier will never be a regular. I look at some of the drops and I see Alex Verdugo twice. I believe Verdugo is the better hitter. So paying 189 to DROP Verdugo for Frazier is not wise in my opinion, but as you mentioned, 2 home runs in the spotlight did the trick. Frazier has power, most say BIG power, but he has never hit for the power people think he has. He is 24 and will get better. Right now he strikes out too often. But Verdugo is 22 and already a better hitter, easily, than Red Thunder. Will Frazier be full time by next year....maybe....maybe not. But Alex Verdugo will be and will be much cheaper to obtain. (free agent in some pools).

The point is (as you have illustrated) that the spotlight and the desire to snag the new toy distort players values by a huge margin. Sunday baseball, weekend baseball, can sure drive up prices.
Rogers Hornsby, Hall of Famer with the Cardinals was once asked " You love Baseball Rogers, but what do you do in the winter ? " His response......"I stare out the window and wait for spring "

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Sunday Star Syndrome

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:09 pm

And this week, Austin Dean becomes the Clint Frazier of last Weekend :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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