Aces or Asses?

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Aces or Asses?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:02 am

For the most part, I do not over draft pitchers.
'Over draft' has many different connotations.
In this instance, it means 'jump' or 'make sure I get' a top pitcher.
In my March 27 Main Event, the first 14 of 15 starting pitchers selected, were drafted before their Main Event ADP.
I did not join in on the frenzy.
Consequently, the remarks were that my pitching was abysmal.
And I had to admit, that on paper, my mates were right.
Fortunately, our game is played on the field.

When a Main Event Draft leans towards hitting or pitching, I tend to go the other way.
Some call this zagging while others zig.
I call it bargain hunting.
Pitchers continued to jump off the Boards through the first 10 rounds.
After 10 rounds, I had one Starting Pitcher. One.
Last year, I had five in the first 10 rounds.
That pitcher was far from being an Ace. It was Kenta Maeda.
I selected Maeda at 9-15 and was faced with a dilemna for my other pick.
Masahiro Tanaka was available and so was Yoan Moncada.
The roster construction Angel was on my left shoulder telling me take Tanaka. That he was an Ace cloaked in a number two pitcher's disguise.
The high ceiling Devil was on my right shoulder telling me to screw pitching. You've come this far and been touting Moncada as having his breakout year this year, daring me to put my money where my mouth was.
I think I took the whole minute.
Then decided on Moncada.
The Angel on my left shoulder looked at me and said with forlorn eyes watering , "I don't even know you."
The Devil laughed and said, "Fuck off Angel! Moncada will kick ass!"

A funny thing happens when deciding hard between two players. No matter who is picked, we are never truly happy with our selection.
Instead, we tend to focus on what we missed.
Instead of celebrating Moncada, I was already missing Tanaka.
Was it the right pick?
We don't know yet.
Both are off to really good starts.
The answer will come later in the season, probably, when needing certain hitting or pitching categories over the other.

Anyway, let's get back to those first 15 Starters selected.
It has been a slow start for these Aces.
Only three have an ERA under 3.00- Bauer, Snell, and Corbin.
Only three have a WHIP under 1.00- Cole, Snell, and Corbin.
What these 15 Starters ARE doing is getting what they were mostly drafted for. Strike outs.
14 of the 15 Aces are close to or over a strike out an inning. Chris Sale, the outcast.
The problem being that strike outs have proliferated so much in baseball, that even non-aces are close to a strike out per inning.

After the first three weeks of the season, and as a group, the first 15 Starters selected in Main Event Drafts have not been that good.
As a group, they have a 4.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and averaging a little over one Win per Starter.
The good news is that all of these pitchers are in good health and that past performance is clearly on their side in having good seasons.
The only pitcher of the 15 to miss a Start is Blake Snell, who should only miss one start.
Seven of these pitchers have ERA's over 5.00
We know that won't last.
But, as the kids say, 'It is what it is' and right now, what it is, is that the first 15 pitchers selected have not been that good.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Aces or Asses?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:57 am

Just following up...

The 15 Aces (Asses?) are a little worse since my original post.
This is even after including my own mistake in now adding Paxton as the number 15 pitcher selected in Main Event drafts.
Mike Clevinger was the number 16 pitcher selected.

A 4.43 ERA and 1.22 WHIP last week is now a 4.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

What these fellas ARE doing is racking up strike outs.
They have 489 K's in 379 innings!
But get this, with a slight pickup in strike outs, this could be the first year where ALL pitchers AVERAGE a strike out an inning.
That's right.
Once the Cadillac of pitching stats, the k/inn is now a Kia.
In fact, right now in the National League, each team is averaging 192 innings pitched, 196 strike outs.
Strike outs are the cheapest commodity in baseball and fantasy baseball.
Unfortunately, these Aces other categories have been a drag for owners.
Most of these Aces have five Starts. Only Gerrit Cole has three Wins.
Chris Sale is the black sheep. His roto line is 8.50/0/14/1.56
Sale is the only pitcher in baseball with four losses.
Only four Aces (Scherzer, Snell, Bauer, Corbin) are throwing over six innings a start.
While five (Sale, Nola, Buehler, Carrasco, Flaherty) cannot even say that they're averaging over five innings a game.

A couple of years ago, the logic was that we HAD to have Aces to compete for a Main Event title.
So far, those doing well in leagues are doing so DESPITE their Aces.
Earl Weaver's three run homer is kicking Billy Martin's small ball ass in our current game.
And right now, we can't tell Max Scherzer from Homer Bailey.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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