Re-Drafting the First Round
Posted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:13 am
I'm very comfortable being grumpy, thank you.
That said, let's get on with this stuff that nobody cares about
Let's look and see how well we predicted the first round, along with my thoughts.
Who knows, maybe this will help somebody around Memorial Day.
The ADP coming from all Main Event Drafts
1-1 Mike Trout .312/21/7/20/4
I continue to believe that Trout is the best current player in the world.
However, he is NOT the best fantasy player in the world.
Fantasy players are helped by real life ballparks and real life teammates.
Trout's ball park is neutral. Trout's teammates abysmal.
He has to do it all himself.
He will have great numbers at the end of the year. And he is worthy of being taken number one, no doubt, but other players will have better numbers.
During the last three years, Mookie Betts has rivaled Trout in all but the home run category while killing Trout in Runs and RBI..
Trout- .310/316/101/251/76
Betts- .306/ 352/77/295/82
You would think with the difference in homers that Trout would be closer to Betts in RBI. Team mates the key.
If re-drafting.....I would not take Trout at number one. His team mates this year, even worse than before.
Lately, he has had Brian Goodwin hit behind him. 'Nuff said.
1-2 Mookie Betts .294/24/6/17/1
Like his team mates, Betts has sleepwalked through April. Boston slow played Spring Training and are paying the price.
Betts has been playing better of late and will soon start to play like the high pick that he is.
What is most concerning is his lack of steals.
This may be just the malaise or fog that all the Red Sox are playing under, but April counts more than September.
In September, our fantasy players are rested more and are more 'tired'. We like to make our hay now.
If re-drafting.... I would probably take Betts with the first pick. I expect Betts to get with the program in regards to steals and feel that the Red Sox will start to play like the Champs they are. Yelich and Bellinger could be taken number one during re-drafts, but I would feel fine with Betts.
1-3 Max Scherzer 4.08/1/62/1.17
Pitching was pushed beyond belief in Main Event drafts. Scherzer, chief among them.
Scherzer has not been Scherzer. Hitters have a better batting average vs. Scherzer than the average MLB pitcher.
That has never happened. Although it is just one month, facts are facts.
And the fact is, that Scherzer may not be the best pitcher in baseball.
And the truth is, that NONE of us really know who the best pitcher in baseball is.
If re-drafting ....Simply, I would not take a pitcher in the first round. Any pitcher.
1-4 Trea Turner I/NJ/UR/E/D
As fantasy players, we tend to over play the speed factor. It's no surprise that Turner was taken so highly.
I believe that speed players do not belong in the first round as their specialty does not effect the other four categories much.
With all their movements, they are also more susceptible to injury.
Turner's injury, not coming from the speed element.
If re-drafting...I have no doubt that, again, Turner will be taken in the first round of re-drafts.
I also have no doubt that, again, it will result in him being over drafted....again
1-5 Christian Yelich .353/26/14/34/6
Awesome. And I think there may be even room for improvement. Yelich has driven himself in more than team mates.
That should improve with slow-starters Aguilar and Shaw hitting better.
Yelich picked up where he left off from last year. Along with Cody Bellinger, easily the two best players in baseball during April.
If re-drafting.....Yelich is a top three pick
1-6 Ronald Acuna Jr. .270/19/6/20/2
Acuna has been a shoulder shrug so far this year. Mere average. We hate average from our first rounders.
Worse, and this goes for almost every NL East player, he has been boring.
Acuna should never be boring.
If re-drafting.....Acuna is a wild card. He could go on a hot streak and make a fantasy team a lot better. Or.......even more boredom.
1-7 JD Martinez .339/16/4/16/1
The batting average is great. But, where's the power?
If hitting .339 in the middle of a Red Sox lineup, we'd think that Martinez would have Yelich/Bellinger type R/RBI.
But, his team mates have sucked. And except for batting average, so has Martinez.
If re-drafting....Like Betts, I would guess that BoSox hitters will come around and make Martinez numbers better.
However, the Victor, not JD, Martinez-type of power is concerning.
Late first rounder.
1-8 Jose Ramirez .186/13/2/9/9
I could rip Ramirez. But I'd rather rip those that made him a first round selection. Ramirez made his numbers during the first part of last year.
After the All-Star game, he sucked. Then, he sucked during the playoffs.
Now, he sucks.
Ramirez is going to have great games, giving owners hope. But in no way is he a first round player.
If re-drafting.......Seriously?
1-9 Jake deGrom 3.82/2/49/1.24
deGrom has been ok. We hate ok. We want dominance. Like last year. Flat out, I don't know if we will see it.
If re-drafting.....There are better picks than deGrom in the first round. But, I'm guessing he'll be drafted there.
1-10 Nolan Arenado .308/25/9/27/1
I have never, in all the years Arenado has played, talked to one of his drafters and heard them say they were disappointed in selecting Arenado in the first round.
He is the most consistent player in baseball.
If re-drafting......Draft him, high.
1-11 Chris Sale 5.25/1/42/1.28
Sale has been called toast, hiding an injury, slow played, un-Sale like.
Whatever you call him, just don't call his name in any first round.
If re-drafting....Remember that Sale usually fails at the end of each season. If thinking he would be a 'sneaky' pick, the joke will probably be on you.
1-12 Aaron Judge IN/J/U/R/ED
Judge was hitting well before his injury. If wanting to be 'sneaky', I believe this would be the choice.
Judge plays in a great park and most of his mates will be back by Memorial Day.
If re-drafting.....I would take a chance on Judge if drafting mid-late in the first round.
1-13 Trevor Story .264/27/8/22/7
I thought that Story should have been selected higher. He is what we all want in a fantasy player.
He fills every category.
If re-drafting....Along with Arenado, he should be a first rounder in every draft.
1-14 Justin Verlander 2.45/4/53/.086
In a year of pitching inconsistencies, Verlander has been the rock of ages.
As said, I would not take a pitcher in the first round, but gun to my head, it would be Verlander.
If re-drafting....Verlander will be a popular choice to pair with a slugger at the end of re-draft first rounds. A drafter could do worse.
1-15 Jose Altuve .248/15/9/20/1
The early power was nice. I don't like the way Altuve has looked though. I'm guessing his injury is still a hindrance.
The one stolen base and only three attempts are a sign.
More of a sign? Altuve has six steals since the middle of last year.
If re-drafting.......He would not be a first round thought.
That said, let's get on with this stuff that nobody cares about
Let's look and see how well we predicted the first round, along with my thoughts.
Who knows, maybe this will help somebody around Memorial Day.
The ADP coming from all Main Event Drafts
1-1 Mike Trout .312/21/7/20/4
I continue to believe that Trout is the best current player in the world.
However, he is NOT the best fantasy player in the world.
Fantasy players are helped by real life ballparks and real life teammates.
Trout's ball park is neutral. Trout's teammates abysmal.
He has to do it all himself.
He will have great numbers at the end of the year. And he is worthy of being taken number one, no doubt, but other players will have better numbers.
During the last three years, Mookie Betts has rivaled Trout in all but the home run category while killing Trout in Runs and RBI..
Trout- .310/316/101/251/76
Betts- .306/ 352/77/295/82
You would think with the difference in homers that Trout would be closer to Betts in RBI. Team mates the key.
If re-drafting.....I would not take Trout at number one. His team mates this year, even worse than before.
Lately, he has had Brian Goodwin hit behind him. 'Nuff said.
1-2 Mookie Betts .294/24/6/17/1
Like his team mates, Betts has sleepwalked through April. Boston slow played Spring Training and are paying the price.
Betts has been playing better of late and will soon start to play like the high pick that he is.
What is most concerning is his lack of steals.
This may be just the malaise or fog that all the Red Sox are playing under, but April counts more than September.
In September, our fantasy players are rested more and are more 'tired'. We like to make our hay now.
If re-drafting.... I would probably take Betts with the first pick. I expect Betts to get with the program in regards to steals and feel that the Red Sox will start to play like the Champs they are. Yelich and Bellinger could be taken number one during re-drafts, but I would feel fine with Betts.
1-3 Max Scherzer 4.08/1/62/1.17
Pitching was pushed beyond belief in Main Event drafts. Scherzer, chief among them.
Scherzer has not been Scherzer. Hitters have a better batting average vs. Scherzer than the average MLB pitcher.
That has never happened. Although it is just one month, facts are facts.
And the fact is, that Scherzer may not be the best pitcher in baseball.
And the truth is, that NONE of us really know who the best pitcher in baseball is.
If re-drafting ....Simply, I would not take a pitcher in the first round. Any pitcher.
1-4 Trea Turner I/NJ/UR/E/D
As fantasy players, we tend to over play the speed factor. It's no surprise that Turner was taken so highly.
I believe that speed players do not belong in the first round as their specialty does not effect the other four categories much.
With all their movements, they are also more susceptible to injury.
Turner's injury, not coming from the speed element.
If re-drafting...I have no doubt that, again, Turner will be taken in the first round of re-drafts.
I also have no doubt that, again, it will result in him being over drafted....again
1-5 Christian Yelich .353/26/14/34/6
Awesome. And I think there may be even room for improvement. Yelich has driven himself in more than team mates.
That should improve with slow-starters Aguilar and Shaw hitting better.
Yelich picked up where he left off from last year. Along with Cody Bellinger, easily the two best players in baseball during April.
If re-drafting.....Yelich is a top three pick
1-6 Ronald Acuna Jr. .270/19/6/20/2
Acuna has been a shoulder shrug so far this year. Mere average. We hate average from our first rounders.
Worse, and this goes for almost every NL East player, he has been boring.
Acuna should never be boring.
If re-drafting.....Acuna is a wild card. He could go on a hot streak and make a fantasy team a lot better. Or.......even more boredom.
1-7 JD Martinez .339/16/4/16/1
The batting average is great. But, where's the power?
If hitting .339 in the middle of a Red Sox lineup, we'd think that Martinez would have Yelich/Bellinger type R/RBI.
But, his team mates have sucked. And except for batting average, so has Martinez.
If re-drafting....Like Betts, I would guess that BoSox hitters will come around and make Martinez numbers better.
However, the Victor, not JD, Martinez-type of power is concerning.
Late first rounder.
1-8 Jose Ramirez .186/13/2/9/9
I could rip Ramirez. But I'd rather rip those that made him a first round selection. Ramirez made his numbers during the first part of last year.
After the All-Star game, he sucked. Then, he sucked during the playoffs.
Now, he sucks.
Ramirez is going to have great games, giving owners hope. But in no way is he a first round player.
If re-drafting.......Seriously?
1-9 Jake deGrom 3.82/2/49/1.24
deGrom has been ok. We hate ok. We want dominance. Like last year. Flat out, I don't know if we will see it.
If re-drafting.....There are better picks than deGrom in the first round. But, I'm guessing he'll be drafted there.
1-10 Nolan Arenado .308/25/9/27/1
I have never, in all the years Arenado has played, talked to one of his drafters and heard them say they were disappointed in selecting Arenado in the first round.
He is the most consistent player in baseball.
If re-drafting......Draft him, high.
1-11 Chris Sale 5.25/1/42/1.28
Sale has been called toast, hiding an injury, slow played, un-Sale like.
Whatever you call him, just don't call his name in any first round.
If re-drafting....Remember that Sale usually fails at the end of each season. If thinking he would be a 'sneaky' pick, the joke will probably be on you.
1-12 Aaron Judge IN/J/U/R/ED
Judge was hitting well before his injury. If wanting to be 'sneaky', I believe this would be the choice.
Judge plays in a great park and most of his mates will be back by Memorial Day.
If re-drafting.....I would take a chance on Judge if drafting mid-late in the first round.
1-13 Trevor Story .264/27/8/22/7
I thought that Story should have been selected higher. He is what we all want in a fantasy player.
He fills every category.
If re-drafting....Along with Arenado, he should be a first rounder in every draft.
1-14 Justin Verlander 2.45/4/53/.086
In a year of pitching inconsistencies, Verlander has been the rock of ages.
As said, I would not take a pitcher in the first round, but gun to my head, it would be Verlander.
If re-drafting....Verlander will be a popular choice to pair with a slugger at the end of re-draft first rounds. A drafter could do worse.
1-15 Jose Altuve .248/15/9/20/1
The early power was nice. I don't like the way Altuve has looked though. I'm guessing his injury is still a hindrance.
The one stolen base and only three attempts are a sign.
More of a sign? Altuve has six steals since the middle of last year.
If re-drafting.......He would not be a first round thought.