Past Performance Participants

[DOUGHBOYS]

There is a bias that we ALL fall victim.
Past performance bias.
It is why Mike Trout is consistent number one selection.
It is the reason why so many think of Jose Ramirez as a first rounder.
When we see a player perform well over a number of months or even a year or two we expect the same to continue.
When it doesn't happen the next year, we see the words 'surprised' or 'when will he come round' or 'it's a long season'.

Here are tidbits from a column written by an NFBC'er describing next week's pitchers....

1 Max Scherzer WAS at MIL, at LAD Remain calm. All is well. Underlying metrics are fine.
2 Gerrit Cole HOU vs. KC, vs. TEX Could be a victim of the juiced ball based on his average fly ball distance
3 Jacob deGrom NYM at SD, vs. MIA Great draws to build on last outing
4 Trevor Bauer CLE vs. CWS, at OAK Getting extra day of rest, pushing two starts from last week to this week
5 Stephen Strasburg WAS at MIL, at LAD
6 Charlie Morton TB vs. ARI, vs. NYY Walks a concern but boosted by pair at home
7 Blake Snell TB vs. ARI, vs. NYY Failed to get out of the 4th twice last two vs. Royals
8 Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD vs. ATL, vs. WAS
9 Cole Hamels CHC vs. MIA, vs. MIL Quietly having stellar season
10 Walker Buehler LAD vs. ATL, vs. WAS Appears ready to cut loose after the club took it slow in the spring
11 Miles Mikolas STL vs. PHI, vs. PIT Home, sweet home
12 Jon Lester CHC vs. MIA, vs. MIL K% spike a mirage - SwStr same as last season, velo down a tick
13 Masahiro Tanaka NYY vs. SEA, at TB
14 Madison Bumgarner SF at COL, vs. CIN
15 Justin Verlander HOU vs. TEX
16 Tyler Glasnow TB vs. ARI
17 Chris Sale BOS at BAL 28 K, 6 BB last three outings, spanning 18 IP
18 Collin McHugh HOU vs. KC, vs. TEX 7 HR in 38 IP, last season served up 6 HR in 72.1 IP
19 Clayton Kershaw LAD vs. ATL
20 CC Sabathia NYY vs. SEA, at TB Congrats big guy, good spot to start working on next 3000
21 Mike Minor TEX at HOU Adjusted baseline expectation, hopefully won't rue it
22 Anthony DeSclafani CIN vs. SF, at SF Rare home and home, top free agent target if available
23 David Price BOS at BAL
24 Caleb Smith MIA at CHC, at NYM Tough lineups, on road, but strong start supported by skills growth
25 Patrick Corbin WAS at LAD
26 Luis Castillo CIN at SF
27 Max Fried ATL at LAD, at ARI Strikeouts should increase as season progresses
28 Jose Berrios MIN at TOR Like Cole, latent candidate to surrender more homers
29 Noah Syndergaard NYM at SD That was great, now let's see you do it again (or something close)
30 Zack Wheeler NYM vs. MIA Getting in groove
31 Carlos Carrasco CLE vs. CWS Indians should put him in bubble wrap between starts
32 Chris Archer PIT vs. TEX, at STL
33 Mike Foltynewicz ATL at LAD, at ARI Still shaking off the cobwebs
34 Zack Greinke ARI vs. ATL
35 Kyle Hendricks CHC vs. MIA Coming off 81 pitch, complete game effort
36 Jack Flaherty STL vs. PHI Plagued by gopheritis, 8 HR in just 36.2 IP
37 Matthew Boyd DET vs. LAA
38 Rich Hill LAD vs. WAS
39 Marcus Stroman TOR vs. MIN, vs. CWS
40 Matt Strahm SD vs. NYM
41 Jameson Taillon PIT vs. TEX K% down but SwStr up, increase in K% is on the way
42 Yonny Chirinos TB vs. NYY
43 Kenta Maeda LAD vs. WAS
44 Aaron Nola PHI at STL Rounding into form
45 Yu Darvish CHC vs. MIA
46 James Paxton NYY vs. SEA Tentative - left last start with a sore knee
47 Mike Soroka ATL at ARI Dbacks offense better than expected
48 Shane Bieber CLE vs. CWS
49 Domingo German NYY at TB
50 Chris Paddack SD vs. NYM
51 Robbie Ray ARI at TB
52 Pablo Lopez MIA at NYM
53 Joe Musgrove PIT at STL Tough spot to rebound from shellacking bu Athletics
54 Trevor Williams PIT at STL
55 Michael Wacha STL vs. PIT Missing bats but also walking a ton
56 Kevin Gausman ATL at LAD
57 Jeff Samardzija SF vs. CIN
58 Sonny Gray CIN at OAK Back at familiar haunts
59 Jhoulys Chacin MIL vs. WAS, at CHC
60 Jose Quintana CHC vs. MIL Looking to rebound after rough outing, previous three were stellar
61 Merrill Kelly ARI at TB, vs. ATL
62 Brad Peacock HOU vs. KC Strikeouts down even more than usual for a reliever-turned-starter
63 J.A. Happ NYY vs. SEA
64 Clay Buchholz TOR vs. CWS
65 Martin Perez MIN at TOR, vs. DET
66 Tyler Skaggs LAA at DET Velo and SwStr% up, bodes well for K%
67 Yusei Kikuchi SEA at NYY
68 Jakob Junis KC at HOU, vs. PHI 5.12 ERA with 4.16 xFIP and 4.33 ERA hint at some bad luck and SwStr% up but K% down
69 Trevor Cahill LAA at BAL
70 Jake Arrieta PHI at KC
71 Chase Anderson MIL at OAK
72 Aaron Brooks OAK vs. CIN, vs. CLE
73 Mike Fiers OAK vs. CIN
74 Michael Pineda MIN vs. DET
75 Eduardo Rodriguez BOS vs. SEA .356 BABIP, 59% LOB help explain 6.16 ERA with 3.91 FIP and 4.04 SIERA


Notice how reversals are predicted for the pitchers that have done well in the past. The writer depends on metrics and underlying stats.
Writers also depend on players going back to the mean. The 'mean' is past performance.
After all, we have seen Max Scherzer and other pitchers dominate for too long in the past to being mere mortals this year.
All of us base our drafts on past performance.
For some, even a month or two is a good enough look-see.
Ronald Acuna Jr. was taken highly in last years drafts.
We even depend on the Minors.
Vlad Guerrero is supposed to be the greatest thing since sliced bread.
His minor league performance, alone, good enough to make him a fourth rounder in this years drafts.

We could be guilty of playing the same player for three months in waiting for a player to resume 'the way he was'.
In Jose Ramirez case, he could be played all year.
Unless injured, we never give up on first round selections.
It's not about not giving up on the player, it's about giving up on his past.
We KNOW he has been wonderful in the past.
There is that sense of ego too. We drafted the guy.
He may be struggling, but it was us who uttered his name on draft day.

I believe that next year's drafts will take on a new look over previous drafts.
I believe that Mike Trout will not be a consensus first round pick.
I don't think any player will.
It's just my thought that more and more drafters will be less and less reliant on the previous season(s).
Maybe, new metrics will be a form of measure instead of 'I saw, I drafted' optics.
For us, it was perfectly acceptable seeing Jose Ramirez drafted third in a draft, but see Ronald Acuna Jr, Javy Baez, or even Blake Snell drafted in the third spot and the drafter gets roasted by other drafters.
We see past performance on draft day. Maybe, far too much.