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Expectational Suckage

Posted: Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:02 am
by DOUGHBOYS
ex·pec·ta·tion
/ˌekspekˈtāSH(ə)n/
Learn to pronounce
noun
plural noun: expectations
a strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future.
"reality had not lived up to expectations"
a belief that someone will or should achieve something.
"students had high expectations for their future"


Our game is based on expectation. I expected Travis Shaw and Jesus Aguilar to be really good players this year.
Screw you, Aguilar and Shaw!
Those expectations, along with many pitching decisions have served to render my teams a limp dick in most leagues.
It's alright. I've had years where my expectations matched and came true on the field.
This year? This year I have been right about almost nothing.
Makes me feel like Brody Van Wagenen.

Let's talk about Brody for a bit.
He is a splash guy. A fella who felt needed to make his mark with Mets.
He trades for Cano and Diaz.
He obtains Ramos. Gets Jed Lowrie. Keon Broxton. Jeurys Familia.
When trading for or obtaining all these big-name players, it is an absolute shame that, really, his best deal was getting JD Davis.
Seriously.
Cano is a bad example of a ball player who is fading into the sunset....quickly.
Diaz is more 'light up' than 'lights out'.
Ramos is a catcher that deGrom and Syndergaard are begging not to throw to, choosing......Nito?
Talk about a bad year!

The Mets two best offensive players were on the squad the whole time.
Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso.
And Brody almost sent Alonso down to AAA before the season began.
Thankfully, Alonso 'earned' his way onto the team in Spring Training.

Another problem for the Mets is Amed Rosario.
Rosario is having a horrible defensive year.
When the strength of your team is the Starting Pitching, the catcher and shortstop should be helpers.
They shouldn't be positions at which the starting pitching is rolling their eyes.
And when your pitchers prefer Nito over Wilson Ramos, a lot of money has been wasted on Ramos.

Now, maybe I had to bring up the Mets to illustrate just how Badly I have done this year.
Like said, I loved Aguilar. Thought Travis Shaw was a steal.
I also liked Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Nola.
Makes me wonder how I didn't like Corey Kluber.
At the same time, we all missed to a degree. (Yes, trying to make myself feel better about failure)
Here is a fantasy All-Star team (like all All-Star teams, subjectivity existing).....

C- Willson Contreras
1B- Pete Alonso
2B- DJ LeMahieu
3B- Anthony Rendon
SS- Xander Bogaerts
OF- Cody Bellinger
OF- Christian Yelich
OF- Mike Trout
SP- Hyun Jin Ryu
C- Kirby Yates

As said, cases can be made for other players, but this is a very representative fantasy All Star team.
And you know what?
Only two first rounders appear on this team (Yelich and Trout)
NO second rounders.
Bellinger and Rendon taken in some third rounds.
As fantasy drafters, we failed miserably.
Third round reversal (as some inquire about) with Trout, Betts, and Ramirez at the top? Laughable.
I only bring this up, though, to make myself feel better.
And......It's not working.

My teams are horrible. No getting around that. I can't wait for next year to get the taste of this one out of my mouth.
I am the New York Mets of fantasy baseball.
I had high expectations and failed miserably. Me and you, Brody. We suck.
Misery does enjoy company. To a degree.
I hate having the Mets as company. They stink.
Worse than that, they'd say the same about me.

Re: Expectational Suckage

Posted: Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:41 pm
by DOUGHBOYS
One more thing about expectational suckage. And this applies to me and everybody who plays in our hobby....
Why do we keep getting fooled by recency bias?
Yesterday was yesterday. Not tomorrow.
Yet, we confuse the two.

This manifests itself more in Closers than any other area.
Remember how Diaz and Treinen went before every other Closer in every draft last year?
Tell me, how good do Diaz and Treinen look now. Pathetic, right?

Want to see how Closers do year after year?
Here is the list of leaders in Saves just three years ago.
JUST THREE YEARS AGO!

1 Jeurys Familia 51
2 Mark Melancon 47
Kenley Jansen 47
Zack Britton 47
5 Francisco Rodriguez 44
6 AJ Ramos MIA 40
7 Sam Dyson 38
8 David Robertson 37
Jeanmar Gomez 37
Alex Colome 37

For the most part, Closers are like M & M's. They melt in mouths, not in our hands.
Here today, hanging on tomorrow.
Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman are exceptions to Closers.
Most Closers are like Norman Greenbaum or Barry McGuire who were big hits for a short time.
For Closers, we're looking for consistency in a place where consistency hardly exists.
Shane Greene is great this year. Blew last year.
The Tigers should have already traded him, while they can.
But, Major League teams are like us.
The Tigers think the Greene Gravy train will last.
It could end badly.
Diaz/Treinen..... no more need be said.