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A Sabr Victory

Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:51 am
by DOUGHBOYS
It was the 10th inning and the Yankees had already scored a run in extra innings against the home team, Tampa Bay Rays. The reliever who gave up that run, Ryne Stanek, was still in the game. There were two outs, runners on second and third and left handed Brett Gardner at the plate. In the on deck circle was Gary Sanchez. In seven at bats, Sanchez has never gotten a hit or even solid wood against Stanek.
The situation cried for Stanek to pitch around Gardner or intentionally walk him.
I was watching, and having Gardner on some important teams, I, of course, was rooting for the Rays to pitch to Gardner.

Looking at this situation through a sabermetric eye, Gardner could do little wrong. Sabrs love their walks. They do not break down walks, like Statcasts does with each hit in having a trajectory and bat speed.
Nope, to sabrs, all walks are gold. Even when a pitcher intentionally walks a batter, the batter inflates his OBP. In what can only be described as defensive manipulation, sabrs reward these walkers with brownie points for taking their base.

In todays game, OBP is dominated by sluggers. It is not that sluggers, necessarily, have a better eye than other players. It is that sluggers are the types that pitchers want to avoid 'grooving' a pitch, so they'll see less strikes than say, Dee Gordon types.
Sabrs don't get this and laud the OBP. I have the belief that most sabrs were stuffed into lockers as kids. Usually at the hands of Jocks.
These sabrs tried to play Little League and when they did, they hit ninth. Hitting ninth, they would constantly hear this from their coach....
"A WALK IS AS GOOD AS A HIT!"
For those kids batting ninth, it was a way to contribute to the team. For the Coach, it was a way to imply that the ninth hitter need not swing and embarrass himself. Not to mention, the automatic out that occurred when swinging.
These ninth-hitting kids, of course, grew up and now they are pushing what their coaches pushed on them. That, no matter what, a walk is a good thing in baseball.

Sabrs champion a certain first baseman in Cincinnati (I promised that I wouldn't mention his name till the year's over).
But now that that hitter is no longer feared due to underproduction, voila, he doesn't walk as much.
Its happened to every good hitter fighting age.
The fear factor disappears.
Albert Pujols walked an average of 90 times while playing with St. Louis.
With the Angels, Pujols has walked a little over 40 times a year.
Nothing happened to Pujols eye. It's still keen.
He is just not the threat with the Angels that he was with the Cardinals.
In most cases, as in Pujols, OBP causes a good OBP.
That is to say, Over Blown Production (OBP) always makes for a good OBP (On Base Percentage)
Superstar players have OBP so they have a good OBP.

As fantasy players, we hate walks.
We hate 'em when our pitcher allows them. We hate 'em when our hitter receives them.
Unless our player can run and steal a base, a walk is a real pain in the ass.
A walk necessitates us to root for that player to score. And even if scoring, he does so by a probable hit and rbi from somebody that we are trying to beat in our league. A lose-lose situation.
There is nothing worse than a roto writer trying to make a base on balls look good to me.
"Brett Gardner went 2-for-4 and reached base three times WITH A WALK and scored a run on Friday"
BFD!
THAT, is what his roto write-up would have looked like had Stanek walked Gardner.
He didn't. Stanek pitched to Gardner. He hit a home run.
Here is what the blurb said....
"Brett Gardner went 3-for-5 with a three-run homer and two runs scored in an extra-inning win over the Rays on Friday."
Better!

It is my belief that ninth-hitting kids, while spending overnights in lockers at their schools, plotted and devised a plan that would take over baseball statistically.
They grew up and Championed what their coach yearned for, the base on balls.
Calling themselves, sabermetricians, to sound smarter, they infiltrated the world of the jock.
The same jocks that had stuffed them in lockers.
They took a little known stat, OBP, and made it larger than life.
They sold OBP to scribes, broadcasters, even to fantasy sites.
They even made us believe that a walk to our hitter was a good thing!
Some batting average fantasy leagues even turning to OBP leagues.
These nerds made Adam Dunn a Star!

These same nerds want us to still love Mookie Betts. Even put him on a pedestal as we did last year, when drafting him ahead and just behind Mike Trout.
They say there is nothing wrong with Mookie Betts.
After all, Mookie is second in baseball in drawing walks!
His OBP is near .400, they cry!
They say that Betts is on pace for well over 100 base on balls. He's never done that before! Awesome!
He has more walks than strike outs! Hooray!

Meanwhile, in the real world that we call fantasy, Betts is a disappointment.
He has stolen just 10 bases.
Only hit 13 homers.
Betts is not seeing the strikes that he did last year.
He is seeing balls. And after seeing balls, he is not stealing much.
In our world, that blows.

But somewhere, born out of a locker years ago, there are smiles.
Smiles because Betts is doing what a coach told that locker-bound kid to do so many years ago.
Walk.
In their world, a victory.
For us, aggravation.

Fantasy writers are still fooled by the base on balls.
They'll print that a batter walked three times and scored a run as if gold.
Meanwhile, the batter who has three strike outs and a solo homer is treated with a bit of scorn.
Yet, the ladder helped us in three categories.
The former, one.

The nerds forgot to Champion what they did when they did swing. Striking out!
Give them time......
They'll come up with something.

Re: A Sabr Victory

Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:22 am
by DOUGHBOYS
Sabrs talk about superstars as if they were their own. Superstars like Mike Trout and other hitters that are great receive a lot of walks, so voila, the analytics love them.
They never pick on someone their own size.
Like this player.
Have you ever heard of Max Bishop?
That's alright. Most folks have not.
Bishop played in the 20's and 30's. He would have made a horrible fantasy player.
In 12 years, he hit 41 homers and only stole 43 bases. He batted .271

What sets Max Bishop apart from other players?
He walked. He didn't just walk. He walked a lot. He walked so much, it would put a certain Cincy 1B to shame.
Bishop was nicknamed "Eagle Eye". Umpires wanted him to become an umpire.
Bishop walked over 100 times in eight seasons.
He did things with bases on balls that even sluggers like Ruth, Williams, and Bonds can't match.

Bishop walked eight times during a doubleheader......Twice!
Bishop also walked five times during a single game....Twice!
Both, Major League records.
Bishop was a sabrs wet dream before sabrs were born!
Here is something that would make sabrs of today drool....
Bishop walked two and a half times for every strike out.
You read that right.
In 1338 games, Bishop drew a walk 1153 times, while striking out just 452 times.

Bishop hit .271 and had an OBP of .423
Bishop should be on the tip of the tongue of every card carrying sabr alive.
Instead, he is relegated to being in a post on a dying Message Board in a forum where he doesn't really belong. That of a fantasy player.
For us, he would have been a one-category player. Scoring runs.
Back then, and in Bishop's case, a walk really was almost as good as a hit.
Bishop would lead off in front of sluggers like Al Simmons, Mickey Cochrane, and Jimmy Foxx.
The Athletics teams of the day were loaded and would have been touted higher if it weren't for the Yankee Empire.

Within a month, an event will occur. I may be the only one that's even noticed.
But it should be noticed by those same card carrying, ninth place hitting Little Leaguers, that have Championed the base on balls.
A certain first baseman from Cincinnati will be passing Max Bishop on the all time list for walks.
Bishop ranks 70th and is eight walks ahead.
Of course, Bishop played in over 300 LESS games, illustrating again, the kind of walker he was.

Bishop is not in the Hall of Fame. Nor should he be.
Although, I do believe that if sabrs existed during his day, he would have been elected.
Bishop was a wonderful player for his team. Perfect for the hitters that followed him.
To be in the Hall of Fame, Walking should be counted as a derivative of the product, not a large portion of the whole.
In coming years, that will be put to the test.
I believe that most Latins have the right idea.
Their saying is that, "You have to hit to get off the island, walking will only leave you drowned."

Later, we'll talk about another walker....Eddie Yost, 'The Walking Man'

Re: A Sabr Victory

Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:26 pm
by DOUGHBOYS
The top 10 players of All Time on the base on balls list are all in the Hall of Fame. (Well, except for Bonds, but we know his story)
Eddie Yost is number 11 on that list.
Eddie Yost really was 'The Walking Man'.
Incredibly, Yost walked over 120 times in a season EIGHT times!
He set a record in having the lowest batting average (.231) in comparison to his On Base Percentage (.412)
It still stands.

Yost played 18 years. Never did hit .300 Never hit 25 homers. Never stole 10 bases.
His lifetime batting average in a time where batting averages were high, was only .254
Yost may have been a middle of the order hitter for almost any other team.
He had power. But, the power was useless in Griffith Stadium, one of the largest venues in baseball.
In a 10 year stretch, Yost hit three home runs in his home park, 52 on the road.
Later, past his prime, after being traded to Detroit, he would hit 21 home runs in a season.

Eddie Yost was the first batter to ever bat for the expansion Los Angels in 1961.
In 1962, he was one of the last of a dying breed in baseball.
He was a player/coach.
He took his last at bat for the Angels in 1962.
He walked.

Yost walked almost twice as much (1614) as striking out (920)
The last 14 years of his career, he never had a season in which he didn't walk more than striking out.
In 1959, when released from the bowels of Griffith Park, Yost would hit his 21 homers, walk 135 times, score a league leading 115 runs, and have an OBP of .435

I am the last baseball person alive that doesn't Champion OBP.
To me, it has become overblown and even a negative in a fantasy sense.
But in cases like Max Bishop, Eddie Yost, and Rickey Henderson, I make an exception.
These batters were lead off men. The best way to help their team was to draw a walk.
A walk that would help them score runs for their teams with their best hitters behind them.
When best hitters are walked, there is no 'bestest' hitter behind them. Their walks just add to their OBP nonsense.
Their walks, mostly of a pitchers choice in not wanting to throw them a good pitch. Rather, facing lesser hitters behind them.
THAT is what drives me bonkers about OBP. It's discriminatory.
The Cincinnati first baseman had few good hitters behind him, that could hit as well as he could.
He encouraged walking and Pitchers obliged him.
Sabrs rejoiced.
Why?
I don't know.
His team was not really helped.
The Reds have hardly ever contended since then.
Yet, he is revered by these fellas who are already starting a Hall of Fame push.
In the mean time, guys like Bishop and Yost are swept under the carpet.

The guy from Cincy will have hit almost twice as many home runs as Yost.
Will have a batting average 50 points higher than Yost.
Will have played in one of the best hitting parks in baseball.
But you know what?
Yost will score more runs.
Isn't THAT what OBP should be all about?
Yost got on base to score.
The fella from Cincy? Mostly dies at first base.

Re: A Sabr Victory

Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:50 am
by DOUGHBOYS
Since this thread has been dedicated to the sabrs and their favorite statistic, OBP.......

I went looking through the history of baseball in an OBP frame of mind. As expected, most of the highest OBP came from players we would expect to have a high OBP.
These include power players that pitchers were not fond of offering strikes over the plate. In also includes PITA's
(Pain In The Ass) hitters who always seem to get hits.
However, only a few power and PITA hitters accomplished this..........A .450 OBP with at least 700 plate appearances.
Here they are and the year accomplished.

Player Name Year

Joey Votto 2017
Todd Helton 2003
Carlos Delgado 2000
Jeff Bagwell 1999
Jeff Bagwell 1996
Frank Thomas 1991
Wade Boggs 1988
Wade Boggs 1985
Ted Williams 1949
Lou Gehrig 1937
Arky Vaughan 1936
Lou Gehrig 1936
Charlie Gehringer1934
Lou Gehrig 1932
Jimmie Foxx 1932
Lou Gehrig 1930
Bill Terry 1930
Hack Wilson 1930
Lefty O'Doul 1929
Rogers Hornsby 1929
Lou Gehrig 1927
Rogers Hornsby 1922
Ty Cobb 1915

It is not surprising that this list is comprised of mostly past generations. No 'rest' was needed for these players and 700 plate appearances were the norm, not the rarity.
The only three players on this list that are NOT in the Hall of Fame are the three most current players.
The top name will be Championed by sabrs.
Helton, persecuted for playing in Coors.
Delgado punished for not reaching 500 home runs (473)
Mike Trout is the only player to have an OBP over .450 (.453) this season.

Thanks All.