Trea Turner and Speed

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let's talk about Trea Turner. Partly because I am infatuated that drafters think he is a top pick, but mostly because I know it pisses a few folks off that I say not nice things about Trea Turner.
First, I still mock those that took Turner as a third Overall pick.
Second, is he a first rounder? Very questionable.
Third, is he even a second rounder?
Let's explore.

If I were to be unfair, I could make this comparison......

Trea Turner in 225 at bats ...280/36/7/22/17

Jarrod Dyson in 235 at bats..247/40/5/18/20

On the surface, these two players would look to have very similar statistics.
Certainly, neither are first or second round statistics.
The problem lies with the way both of these accumulations have been achieved.
Turner suffered an injury, then has grinded every day at bats.
Dyson has been cherry picked as to when entering games.
For fantasy, we can count on Turner being in the lineup almost every day and in 2018, he was literally in the lineup every day.
Dyson drives us crazy in guessing when he will actually use his speed to aid his owners.
Turner owners could have replaced Turner while injured and received more statistics. So the Dyson comparison becomes junk.....
Although it does illustrate that Turner is not having a wonderful year...injury or not.

The truth is that Turner may drop because he has been 'out-Turner'd'
Raul Mondesi's kin, Adalberto Mondesi will most likely pass Turner in drafts this coming year.
Mondesi seems more willing to steal a base. Is on a team that cares less how many attempts he makes.
And Mondesi seems to have the same pop that everybody envisioned Turner having.
Mondesi is a better version of Trea Turner, than Trea Turner.
We also have the likes of Marte, Merrifield and others who are Turner-like.

But, there is something else that is not on Turner's side. Or really, on ANY speedster's side that has established himself as an everyday player.
And that is today's game and the effect on its players.
For some reason, Players who come up and establish themselves as great players of the game tend see their running game start to disappear.
It hasn't happened to Yelich, thankfully.
Alex Bregman who has established himself as a slugger has four, count 'em, four Bags this year.
Javy Baez has five.
DJ LeMahieu is having a great year in every way but stolen bases with four.
Mookie Betts had 30 Bags last year. This year, 11.
Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo were good for double digit steals. No more.

It's another pitfall for us drafters.
Whit Merrifield, established after leading baseball with 45 steals last year, has just 14 thefts this year.
Marking that even players known for their thievery will steal less.
Their teams seem to like the less wear and tear on these type of players.
As owners of speed, we'd like to be coaching first base and put a needle in these guys ass to make them run.
We can't and they won't.
For us, it's going to make speed a very challenging category.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let's talk about Trea Turner. Partly because I am infatuated that drafters think he is a top pick, but mostly because I know it pisses a few folks off that I say not nice things about Trea Turner.
First, I still mock those that took Turner as a third Overall pick.
Second, is he a first rounder? Very questionable.
Third, is he even a second rounder?
Let's explore.

If I were to be unfair, I could make this comparison......

Trea Turner in 225 at bats ...280/36/7/22/17

Jarrod Dyson in 235 at bats..247/40/5/18/20

On the surface, these two players would look to have very similar statistics.
Certainly, neither are first or second round statistics.
The problem lies with the way both of these accumulations have been achieved.
Turner suffered an injury, then has grinded every day at bats.
Dyson has been cherry picked as to when entering games.
For fantasy, we can count on Turner being in the lineup almost every day and in 2018, he was literally in the lineup every day.
Dyson drives us crazy in guessing when he will actually use his speed to aid his owners.
Turner owners could have replaced Turner while injured and received more statistics. So the Dyson comparison becomes junk.....
Although it does illustrate that Turner is not having a wonderful year...injury or not.

The truth is that Turner may drop because he has been 'out-Turner'd'
Raul Mondesi's kin, Adalberto Mondesi will most likely pass Turner in drafts this coming year.
Mondesi seems more willing to steal a base. Is on a team that cares less how many attempts he makes.
And Mondesi seems to have the same pop that everybody envisioned Turner having.
Mondesi is a better version of Trea Turner, than Trea Turner.
We also have the likes of Marte, Merrifield and others who are Turner-like.

But, there is something else that is not on Turner's side. Or really, on ANY speedster's side that has established himself as an everyday player.
And that is today's game and the effect on its players.
For some reason, Players who come up and establish themselves as great players of the game tend see their running game start to disappear.
It hasn't happened to Yelich, thankfully.
Alex Bregman who has established himself as a slugger has four, count 'em, four Bags this year.
Javy Baez has five.
DJ LeMahieu is having a great year in every way but stolen bases with four.
Mookie Betts had 30 Bags last year. This year, 11.
Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo were good for double digit steals. No more.

It's another pitfall for us drafters.
Whit Merrifield, established after leading baseball with 45 steals last year, has just 14 thefts this year.
Marking that even players known for their thievery will steal less.
Their teams seem to like the less wear and tear on these type of players.
As owners of speed, we'd like to be coaching first base and put a needle in these guys ass to make them run.
We can't and they won't.
For us, it's going to make speed a very challenging category.

I'd like to reply to the author of this post. I know I am late to the party since it was posted long ago.
I believe he is right in that speed is challenging. BUT, since reading the post, I have kept my eye on Trea Turner.
And I believe the poster may have been a little hasty in discounting Turner's other qualities beyond speed.
Turner, along with Soto and Rendon, carried the Nationals offense.
He did not run at every opportunity as fantasy players would like, but he was most instrumental in being in the middle of Nationals rallies.
To put it bluntly, Mr. Poster, Turner is pretty good at this hitting stuff.

Turner was unfairly hyped as a potential 70 base stealer.
Who could live up to that? Especially in today's climate of power first, speed last.
Turner is what he is. A tremendous leadoff hitter. A hitter with some pop. And speed.
Is he a first round choice?
With speed being such a high commodity for drafters, sure.
Does he belong in the first round?
Maybe.
He plays a position that is saturated in goodness this upcoming drafting season.
Lindor
Story
Turner
Bregman
Torres
Tatis
Bogaerts

All of these shortstop-eligible players are fantastic. And those are just the cream of the crop. Look at who's behind them...

Villar
Baez
Machado
Mondesi
Correa

All of these shortstops could be first rounders after a swell year.

Summing up, Turner may be a first rounder in some drafts this year and may not be in others.
All the same, he's a darned good player and you should give him his just due.
Thanks for the listen.

[ToddZ]

FWIW, while some will dismiss this because "It's not the NFBC Main", the overall champion of the TGFBI (a 315 team competition among the fantasy baseball industry hosted by Greg/Tom/Darik) took Trea Turner 6th overall.

[NorCalAtlFan]

wtf is tgfbi!!!?

jk todd. good job in that.