Skill and Luck

[DOUGHBOYS]

In my mind, there is a fluctuating meter between skill and luck in our game. Some days, I think that skill is the overriding factor.
But then others, I believe that luck is the ingredient most needed in our recipes.
Our recipes begin with our drafts.
We do a lot of studying, be it visual, Numerish, listening to others. going back and looking at past history, studying splits, minor league credentials, etc.
We try to leave no stone unturned.
We call this....SKILL.

So, our recipe is created using these skills and logic to form our dish for Opening Day.
Then, the shit hits the fan.
Players under perform, they over perform, they get hurt, they get benched, they get traded and benched, they get caught with PED's, they take leave, they're IL'lin for 10 days, they're IL'lin for 60 days.
Our recipe of success turns to crap.

Lucky for us that this isn't the old days!
In the old days, we had one Main Event team.
One.
There were no other options in the NFBC.
Then along came Satelite leagues.
Then DC Leagues.
The Main Event was opened to more than one entry.
Until today, we have a myriad of choices in leagues to play.

Now, skill and luck play into our games more than ever before.
In the Overall Standings of the DC, I have three teams in the top 200.
In the Overall Standings of the DC, I have a team that 3313 out of 3450 teams.
These teams were all built with the same mind and recipe for success.
Lindy Hinkelman has the number one team Overall in DC's (Way to go, Lindy!)
Lindy also has a team that is 2,846th Overall.
Again, same mind.
The same skills went into both the good and bad drafts.
Luck, good and bad, had a field day with these drafts, when the season started.

We all have the skill to know that Byron Buxton is an injury risk. I guarantee you that everyone reading this, knows that.
Could we foresee Luis Severino being a non-factor this year?
Jesus Aguilar wilting?
Yordan Alvarez flourishing?
Corey Kluber?
Carlos Carrasco with leukemia?
First that Frankie Montas would be a success and secondly, get caught for that success?
Tyler Skaggs dying?

We are so smart with our skills before the season starts.
Then luck takes hold of those skills and turns our recipe into a splendid dish or an utter disaster.
At drafting time, we believe it is better to be good than lucky.
Then the season begins and the tail wags the dog.
Sometimes, the Fantasy God smiles, winks, and gives us an "Attaboy".
Other days, the Fantasy God wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and says, "How can I screw him today?"
We know it's true.
We've lived it.
And we have our good teams and bad teams as proof.

Our family and friends are fooled.
They know that "Sunday's are Dad's Day during baseball season.
We put our work into FAAB hoping for a good result.
We don't tell them that luck plays a large part in those decisions.
We don't really know that Rogelio Armenteros or Jose Urquidy, two pitchers we knew little about at draft time, will help our teams or not.
Again, we are calling on the Fantasy God to do us a solid and make them what we think they can be in our minds.
We hope for luck here, knowing that the 'skills' part of our mind is telling us that the Astros will trade for a Starter or two, rendering one or both of these pitchers as useless later.
If we're not successful with this FAAB,, the family and friends will never know. We'll just drop them later.
If successful, and the Astros find no matches at the deadline, we were smart....or is it lucky...I don't know.

Not everybody can play our game.
We need skills to compete at this NFBC level.
Those skills can carry us to great heights.
It is luck that puts us over the top in winning leagues and Overalls.
I guarandamnedtee you that when an Overall Championship is won by a drafter, that the drafter's failing teams will never be mentioned.
Nobody will care.
They'll assume that those met with bad luck.
While skill was the reason for the Championship.
We're just funny that way.