The Brain, The Heart, The Eyes

[DOUGHBOYS]

"I keep telling you guys that Dalvin Cook is the number one running back in football and I'll keep saying this until you believe it too!"
This said by a football guy.
Of course, this football guy is saying this on the strength of watching Cook the first three games of the season.
Did he tout Cook as even a top four running back before the first three games?
Of course not.
Those spots were held for the same four running backs that everybody else in the world should go into the top three.

Why am I talking about football?
It's just an example.
These podcasters, writers, and analyst are just like us. Only a little bit louder.
If listening to them closely, they seldom say or do anything that we wouldn't do.
ALL of us would draft differently after watching some games.
We all get smarter as we watch players we drafted (and did not draft).

In our PreMature League that starts drafting this Sunday, I feel that the first four picks are 'reserved'.
They are reserved because of past and recent performances.
We reward these performances with higher picks in the draft.
Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, and Ronald Acuna will be the first four players in most drafts in the upcoming year.
Most everybody will draft these fellas as football enthusiasts drafted Barkley, McCaffery, Kamara, and Elliot in football.
We draft with our brain, heart, and eyes.
Our brain tells us that statistics back up our thoughts.
Our heart tells us that mere statistics does not cover everything.
Our eyes tells us that seeing is believing when it comes to our picks.

Our brain is screaming at us that those four players should be at the top of every list. And every podcaster, writer, and analyst will agree.
All of us will roll our eyes if another player enters the top four.
When that happens, it usually comes from the heart.
The brain stops the heart in drafting Dalvin Cook in the top 4.
Even though after the season starts, the heart is saying, "I told you so."
Now, the eyes see Cook going up and down the field and everybody wishes they had drafted him.

Last year, Mookie Betts was the first or second player taken in almost every draft.
Betts satisfied the new breed of baseball analysts. They love their On Base Percentage!
Betts is 10th in OBP and leads all of baseball in scoring runs.
So why does he drop?
First, he didn't have the fantasy seasons that the top four did.
And recency bias rules in drafting.
Second, his home runs didn't climb as home runs climbed around baseball.
Third, his HR/SB figure of 28/16 looks similar to the the 26/18 figure of Danny Santana.
Danny Santana!
Danny Santana is no Dalvin Cook!
So, we punish Betts.
He becomes a mid-first rounder instead of a top pick.
That will show him!

The same happens with other players.
Trea Turner has been taken in the first round because drafters think he can steal 70 bases.
Maybe he can. But he doesn't seem to want to.
Mallex Smith and Adalberto Mondesi look like they always want to steal. Our eyes tell us that Turner is just as happy staying at first as he is stealing a base.
This will drop Turner to the second round this year, where his drafters use their hearts in thinking that he can still steal 70 bases.

OK, enough of the brain, heart, and eyes thing.....Have you seen the shortstops available for the upcoming year?!
PreMature League drafters have!
Crazy!

Bregman
Machado
Mondesi
Story
Tatis
Villar
Bichette
J Polanco
Turner
Andrus
Escobar
Lindor
Bogaerts
Semien
J Baez
Kingery
DeJong
K Marte
Segura
Rosario
Seager
Correa
T Anderson
Gregorius
Swanson
Gurriel

That is 26 SS that could be drafted in the top 10 rounds.
Most should be drafted by round seven.
Just an incredible collection of low floors and even higher ceilings.
It's safe to say that most middle infielders this coming year, will be shortstops.

I'll leave you with this one statistic since we're talking about shortstops....
Back in the day, shortstops were neither powerful or speedy.
Sure, there was Luis Aparicio who led his league in stolen bases eight years in a row and is one of the few Hall of Famers to make it on fielding and speed alone.
For the most part though, we're talking Mark Belanger, Dal Maxvill types that could field really well, but not hit a lick.
That is, until Ernie Banks came along.
In 1955, Ernie Banks hit 44 home runs from the shortstop position. Most ever hit by a shortstop at that time.
Unheard of for a shortstop to hit with that much power.
The 44 homers were more homers hit than all the shortstops in the American League COMBINED.
Banks would certainly feel comfortable with that group above.
He may even say, "Let's draft two!"