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We grouse about Wins in playing fantasy baseball. As we should. Wins have become more dependent on things out of our control.
We like control.
We like thinking that if Justin Verlander pitches a good game and his team hits,we should get a Win.
Unfortunately, the Manager, the pitch count, the bullpen, and other factors all play against us.
Still, we carry on.

The PreMature League wrapped up recently. We chose 143 starting pitchers. An average of almost 10 Starters per team.
I believe this is part of the backlash of Wins being tougher on us. If quality is not the answer, maybe quantity is.
The fact is that we no longer can draft Wins with confidence.

On the other side of the spectrum is Saves.
Saves has always been more of a pain in the ass category.
We know how to get Saves.
We simply draft the guy who has been in the game last for a team. We also throw FAAB money at the new Closer when a change is made.
We can get real lucky with Saves. Like drafting Shane Greene on a lark last season.
Or, we can get real unlucky with Saves. Like drafting Craig Kimbrel thinking somebody will sign him soon AND that he'll be his old self once signed.

For the PreMature, Saves involve a lot of coin flipping.
Who will close for the Rockies? the Dodgers? the Cubs? the Red Sox? the Cardinals? the Mets?
Even the Nationals have used a dual Closers approach to get in the World Series.
It made hunting for Closers very difficult for the PreMature League.
Only 37 relievers were selected.
Most were a rounding up of the usual suspects.
Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, and Blake Treinen who were highly drafted last year, were drafted at a lot lower cost this year.
Diaz in the 13th round. Jansen in the 10th. Treinen, the 23rd.
Only four Closers were drafted before round 10.
Drafters just did not want to participate in the guessing game.
Surprisingly, Craig Kimbrel was one of those four pitchers, drafted in the ninth round.
Kimbrel had everything going for him in signing with the Cubs.
A good team.
A team that would use him frequently.
A team that had something to play for.
Kimbrel chit the bed.

We don't have a 'best Closer in baseball' title any longer.
Last year, Diaz or Treinen would have been bestowed that honor.
Heck, even Josh Hader who went into the season as 'best reliever', turned into a Closer and disappointed folks at the end of the year.
Closers have become a guessing game. Especially this time of the year.
Kimbrel, Diaz, and Treinen weren't as good as we thought.
Do we even trust in Jansen being a Closer any longer?

It's no longer "Wins are going to be tough".
It's no longer "Saves are going to be tough".
PITCHING is going to be tough.

Hardest thing I found about Wins this year is that the 2-start mediocre streaming pitcher had a good chance at 1 or 2 W in previous years. In 2019 though with the juiced ball, pitch counts were higher, starters were getting pulled earlier so a lot of times they didn't make it through 5 and even if they did, leads weren't as safe anymore.

I don't have any stats to back this up but it felt like those are the pitchers that got hurt the most and they weren't worth streaming anymore.

Philippe27 wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:51 pm

Hardest thing I found about Wins this year is that the 2-start mediocre streaming pitcher had a good chance at 1 or 2 W in previous years. In 2019 though with the juiced ball, pitch counts were higher, starters were getting pulled earlier so a lot of times they didn't make it through 5 and even if they did, leads weren't as safe anymore.

I don't have any stats to back this up but it felt like those are the pitchers that got hurt the most and they weren't worth streaming anymore.

I agree with this.
A lot of the scribes are looking at leaders in Wins and saying that not much has changed.
The change occurs with the numbers three, four, and five members of rotations.
Their Managers do not have the faith in them to let them have the ball as long.
There are more and more of these pitchers exiting the game in the fourth and fifth inning.

And a further point....I have never seen as many pitchers who were leading in the game, pulled after 4 and 2/3 innings. ONE out away, they were winning, but the manager won't let them get that out. It used to be if they were within an out of qualifying for the win, the manager would be lenient.....not any more. The bottom line for me is, as already stated, if you are not grabbing a # 1 or a # 2 starting pitcher, you just can't count on wins. Jacob DeGrom aside, if an ace pitches enough innings, he will usually get a decent amount of wins. But your # 3 through 5 starters may pitch reasonably well and only get 7-9 wins. Where oh where are Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, Pat Dobson and Jim Palmer. We will never see that again.

Thurman15 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:54 pm

And a further point....I have never seen as many pitchers who were leading in the game, pulled after 4 and 2/3 innings. ONE out away, they were winning, but the manager won't let them get that out. It used to be if they were within an out of qualifying for the win, the manager would be lenient.....not any more. The bottom line for me is, as already stated, if you are not grabbing a # 1 or a # 2 starting pitcher, you just can't count on wins. Jacob DeGrom aside, if an ace pitches enough innings, he will usually get a decent amount of wins. But your # 3 through 5 starters may pitch reasonably well and only get 7-9 wins. Where oh where are Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, Pat Dobson and Jim Palmer. We will never see that again.

True. Managers didn't like pulling a pitcher with a lead in the fifth inning. He understood the Win stat.
He knew it meant a lot to the pitcher. Maybe even messing with next years contract for the pitcher.
Situations now, even if just the fifth inning, rules the Managers mind. Pitch counts also figure in too.

You're right, we'll never see a foursome throwing seven-nine innings a start again.
We'll see six pitchers throwing four-six innings before that.
I felt dirty just typing that.