Just some ranting....
I got into a conversation during the fantasy football drafting season with a buddy of mine.
He had the fourth pick.
I asked who he was thinking about.
"Kamara and David Johnson".
I replied that I wouldn't touch either one.
"WHY?", He asked.
Kamara shares touches and Johnson had one great year. Why are you betting on another one after his injury? Why does he deserve to go so high?"
My friend responded with the second worse thing he could have said....
"Well, me and millions of others believe that Johnson should be that high!"
I went off.
"Because millions of people believe something doesn't make it true!
Millions of people believed OJ was a 'nice guy'.
Millions of people believe in different Gods.
Millions of people believed that Bruce Jenner was a man through and through!
Look, why don't you think about Hopkins"
I don't want a receiver.
Then think about Chubb or Conner or Cook..."
And with that last sentence, he uttered the worst response possible....
"I don't get any value with those guys."
First of all, you guys know how I feel about the misuse of this word.
And this, this was the worst possible way to use the word.
I exploded.
"VALUE....VALUE?"
"It is YOUR fricking fourth pick of the draft and your worried about the value of a pick in relation to what the masses think?
Are you afraid that if you don't fall in line, you'll be laughed at, ridiculed, burned to a stake?
This is YOUR pick, fercrissakes! Not everybody's pick!
Do you 100% believe in David Johnson?"
"No, but I think he is the right pick for me."
I gave.
The first three picks were Barkley, McCaffery, and Kamara.
My buddy chose Johnson.
I'm reminded of this story because he called me this week...and lamented.
He also said he learned a valuable lesson. I'll call it a VALUEable lesson.
After talking about his team hitting the skids, he said he wouldn't make the same mistake next year.
But, I know he will.
For some reason, we have an ADP that is assigned merit in our minds.
We trust in ADP. Some in a good way. Some in a bad way.
My friend trusted it in a bad way. He assumed that other drafters could not be wrong.
They ARE wrong. Often.
The way to approach ADP is in how to beat it.
Not being afraid of 'value' getting in your way.
Timing ADP, so that we get the picks coveted at our price.
Christian Yelich is being drafted second or third in almost every early draft.
I love Christian Yelich. I drafted him a lot last year.
But, that back that flares up every year annoys me.
Worst, it worries me.
We like to think of these guys in full health. We look at the yearly statistics from last year and think everything is fine.
But, there's that back.
And back issues always seem to flare up year to year. Sometimes they get so bad that dl stints are needed. It hasn't gotten that bad for Yelich yet.
But, it worries me.
If somebody had the third pick in a draft and told me he was going to take Yelich, I would remind him of those back problems and that some other player may be a better selection.
And if sold on Yelich 100%, I couldn't blame him for drafting Yelich.
But, if that drafter is pulling a 'David Johnson', he still has a lot to learn.
Different rant.....
Why is every player signed a wonderful choice for that team?
Watch the MLB Channel. Listen to podcasts.
EVERY player signed is a great player to sign.
Of all the signings last year, including Harper and Machado, only one was questioned.
DJ Lemahieu going to the Yankees.
WHAT THE HELL DO THESE PEOPLE REALLY KNOW?
I'll answer that. Nothing.
Nothing.
Weall know nothing till the player plays with that team.
Yet, all these media members jump on board with almost every signing.
Right now, the Braves are being lauded for their early signings....
First, they should be applauded for giving us something to read about in November.
THAT part I like.
And I do like the Will Smith signing.
But I heard a guy say yesterday that Travis d'Arnaud will be a top catcher next year.
Ugh.
d'Arnaud had circumstances that fit him for half a season last year.
He could play 1B.
He could DH
He could Catch.
He'll only be able to do one of those things with the Braves.
He will have to do what he has never been capable of at the Major League level.
Be an everyday player.
We all know that that half season was not d'Arnaud's true skill.
His true skill is getting hurt.
We don't like that skill, but he is darned good at it.
He is better at getting hurt than any baseball trait.
The press says that d'Arnaud was the next best catcher on the market after Grandal.
I don't believe that.
Austin Romine is a much better defensive catcher. With Romine's reverse splits of hitting 100 points higher on the road than Yankee Stadium last year, he would intrigue me more than d'Arnaud.
He would come with a smaller price tag as well.
But, what do I know?
There are a million members of the press calling it a great signing.
And in alot of folks view, if a million people are saying it, it must be true.
Rants
Re: Rants
Great post Dan! I agree on Yelich and we still don’t know about his broken knee!! I myself have a different guy pegged for the 3rd overall player and if not getting a top 2 pick I can probably get that guy around picks 8-10. The joy of having kds and “our own” rankings! See you Friday in the MTM
Re: Rants
That is an excellent rant covering two sports and multiple players. I'm all in favor of other folks rating Yelick that high. In my current draft, he went second, a guy without a team went third (Geritt Cole) and I got "stuck" with that Trout fella at number 4. 