Numbers

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Numbers

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:51 am

Ian Kinsler retired this week. Kinsler was a favorite of fantasy baseball drafters during his career. Middle infielders with speed and power were hard to find during most of Kinsler's career. Along with Michael Young, really, in fantasy, they were a better tandem than the more talked about Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker.

Kinsler retired with 1.999 hits. He is petitioning MLB to change an error to a hit from a previous day.
Ah, the power of the even numbers!
Sometimes I marvel at the power of it.
Remember at the end of last year when Texas left Mike Minor in the game far beyond the plan of his pitch count.
Why?
Because he had 199 strike outs for the season.
There was even a pop fly to the third baseman with two strikes on the batter struck in foul territory with Minor exhorting the third sacker to drop the ball.

The Red Sox had Eduardo Rodriguez make every start while resting their other Starters.
The reason?
E-Rod had a chance at winning 20 Games.

Base stealers with 19 or 29 stolen bases going into the last week of a season are bound to steal that last even numbered base.
Look through the history of players stealing bases.
A player is more than twice as likely to have ended his season with the last digit of a zero than the last digit of a nine.

Yet, when interviewed, almost every MLB player or Manager will tell you that they don't care about such numbers.
They are liars.
Even numbers matter.
Ted Williams was set to retire.
A fan approached him and told him how close he was to certain numbers. Including 500 home runs.
It changed Williams mind and Williams played longer.

Very late in his career, Mickey Mantle came to the plate against Denny McLain.
It would be Mantle's last year. McLain was the talk of baseball. He would go on to be the last pitcher to win 30 games.
Every move Mantle made was being documented across the country in his retirement year.
For the moment, it was about Mantle being tied with Jimmy Foxx on the all time home run list at 534.
McLain called his catcher out to the mound. McLain respected Mantle and wanted to do him a solid.
"Tell Mick that a batting practice fastball is coming."
When getting to the plate, the catcher dutifully told Mantle.
Disbelieving, Mantle let the pitch, a batting practice fastball, go by.
McLain nodded and winked to Mantle that the same pitch would be coming again.
Mantle clobbered it into the seats.

Times have changed since Williams and Mantle. Players hardly ever retire when still under a contract for millions.
They play out the string.And it gets ugly.
Currently, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Ryan Braun are shells of themselves.
If any of them were free agents, it would be more likely that they would retire more than sign for their real worth of just a million or two a season.
Instead, their contracts not only guarantee them way too much money, but playing time to boot.
Although today's teams are called 'smarter', they are not beyond playing washed up players over prospects, in hopes that they are somehow getting more of their money's worth.

Cabrera, whose descent has been very rapid due to continual injury, has hit 473 home runs and has 2,815 hits.
The Tigers will keep running him out there. Hoping he gets near enough to those even numbers to get a few extra fannies in the seats.
For Cabrera, his ticket assured for the Hall of Fame, a chance at those even numbers.
Even if almost embarrassing himself by the meager production he now provides.

Will Kinsler get his 2,000th hit through the back door?
I don't care.
What I do care about is players lie about numbers. They care.
They most certainly do.
A LOT.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Edwards Kings
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Location: Duluth, Georgia

Re: Numbers

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:34 am

Lookng for a number is like looking for a record. Everyone hated Pete Rose. He did not get the McClain/Mantle treatment. He was livid when Atlanta Brave reliever Gene Garber didn't grove him a pitch late in a game that would be an Atlanta 16-4 victory. And Rose's 44 game hit streak came to an end, well shy of DiMaggio.

I hate Rose...anybody got an autographed ball?
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Quahogs
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Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

Re: Numbers

Post by Quahogs » Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:24 am

Dough! You're making my job hard. I've been enlisted by Miggy's agent to keep his fantasy ADP afloat this year.
Since this forum is lightly trafficked :lol: I'm fine letting the cat out of the bag here...

No lingering offseason injuries [+15 slots]
Hired personal chef - new diet equals newer muscles [+10 slots]
Coming into camp 15lbs lighter, visually slimmer too, it's all about the optics [+8 slots]
Contract means F/T abs [+30 slots]
Chasing stats means F/T abs [+15 slots]
Vastly improved Detroit lineup [+12 slots]
Spring training stats --> expect 5 jacks and .350 (365ft power alleys+wind+A ball fastballs) [+22 slots]
1st week ME floor prop pick -->rd 15

by the end of Week 2 LV drafts he'll be going late 13's... :D

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Numbers

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:41 am

Quahogs wrote:
Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:24 am
Dough! You're making my job hard. I've been enlisted by Miggy's agent to keep his fantasy ADP afloat this year.
Since this forum is lightly trafficked :lol: I'm fine letting the cat out of the bag here...

No lingering offseason injuries [+15 slots]
Hired personal chef - new diet equals newer muscles [+10 slots]
Coming into camp 15lbs lighter, visually slimmer too, it's all about the optics [+8 slots]
Contract means F/T abs [+30 slots]
Chasing stats means F/T abs [+15 slots]
Vastly improved Detroit lineup [+12 slots]
Spring training stats --> expect 5 jacks and .350 (365ft power alleys+wind+A ball fastballs) [+22 slots]
1st week ME floor prop pick -->rd 15

by the end of Week 2 LV drafts he'll be going late 13's... :D
Steve, don't forget going to Arizona to work on his legs to capture, not one, but maybe two extra stolen bases in an era where the stolen base has been all but forgotten! (+15 spots)

I love that this area is lightly trafficked. A respite from the Main page.
I haven't forgotten that you were instrumental in that. And for that, I thank you again!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Quahogs
Posts: 2399
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

Re: Numbers

Post by Quahogs » Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:43 am

I'm just a slave to organization Dough - you've done the heavy lifting :D

You're an NFBC treasure - I think I've read all 1000 articles railing on "value,sleepers&Votto" :lol:
You need a wider audience - about time one of these pundits gets you a slot on The Athletic or something...

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Numbers

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:32 pm

Thanks Steve.
I tried Fantrax and have been asked by a couple of others to write for them.
I enjoyed the short time at Fantrax and the offers from others.
Heck, I remember writing a 'Fantasy Camp' for Todd once.
But I'm an NFBC guy.
I really enjoy writing here with no thoughts of deadlines and no editor telling me what to do.
I like that everybody who does read this, is an accomplished NFBC player, so there is no need to 'explain' things.
In short, the pay sucks but the 'job' is terrific!

A few years ago, a 'Yahoo Kid' type told me that he had just won his free league and was ready for NFBC play.
I asked him if it was a Yahoo or ESPN league that he had won.
He responded that it was a home league that had 'grown' from 8 to 10 teams.
I suggested that he play a 15 team Yahoo or ESPN league before putting money on the line.
I haven't heard from him or seen his name in NFBC drafts since.
I like to think that he found out he didn't really belong here.

We are the best of the best. No brag, just fact.
And I love having the chance to write here any time I like with the best fantasy players on Earth.
I wouldn't want it any other way.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Numbers

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:12 pm

Columbo style, "Oh one more thing...."

Have you heard these podcasts and others when talking about drafting?
If "Value" was drinking game during these shows, there is no humanly way to leave the show sober.
It's a freakin epidemic!
Listen to Greg and Tom some time. Or anybody.
They attach that freakin' word to any seen advantage by the describer.
ADP is built on opinion.
Whether one guy thinks another player is better while another doesn't, in reality, means shit.
Just like the word, 'value', itself.
It is only said to bolster an argument. There really is no value in value...at least in the context we like to use it in.

You know what I value?
I value the statistic that Hunter Pence has scored form first base on a double 75 of 107 times! 75 of 107! That's incredible!
Since 2002, the year the stat started, the only player to come close to Pence was Ichiro and Ichiro only scored half the time.
73 times in 146 chances.
The MLB average is scoring 28 per cent of the time in that circumstance.
Having Hunter Pence on first base is value because of the increasing chance he can score from first on a double.
BUT.....If somebody drafts Hunter Pence and says that he got value? Screw him.
All he did was draft another player, like every other player drafted before Pence.

Thought you'd like one more mini-rant about value. :)
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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