Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post Reply
DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:20 pm

The text read..."I'll take 200 K's and 15 Wins every year. Vroom Vroom."

The texter was talking about James Paxton.
There are many opinions on Paxton. They range from 'Ace' to 'Injury Riddled'
In a way, both accounts are correct.

Paxton is being selected in the sixth or seventh rounds in most NFBC early drafts. He is drafted behind Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber.
Ahead of Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray.
This is the area where most drafters are selecting one of these pitchers to be their 'secondary Ace'. A pitcher to backup their premier pitcher.
Each of these pitchers have what NFBC drafters require. Strike outs.
Each are close to the k/inn that is now expected by pitchers drafted in single digit rounds.

A strike out an inning used to be an achievement. I remember looking at the stat with reverence when beginning NFBC drafting.
Now, with the rise of hitters 'selling out' and not caring about the outcome of a strike out, they are a dime a dozen.
Strike outs have risen every year since the NFBC started. It is the only trend that has had a continuous rise since then.
In effect, strike outs have become 'cheap'.
200 strike out pitchers like Matt Boyd and Robbie Ray can be had in the 10th round and beyond in most drafts.
Boyd and Ray did not make 200 strike outs or a k/inn by the skin of their teeth.
Each had over 50 strike outs beyond their innings pitched.

Still, we revere the strike out.
Each pitcher selected highly,even Closers, must have the ratio we crave.
But, let's get back to James Paxton.
Does he really belong as one of these pitchers?
Sure, he checks the box of having a k an inning.
But, does he do it in a meaningful (for us) way?
As I told the texter, Paxton has reached 200 strike outs ONCE.
He has reached 15 Wins ONCE.
And not in the same year.
Paxton, in my mind, is still riding the hype that has kept him a high rounded pitcher in NFBC drafts during his career.

So, I tried an experiment.
I put Paxton beside a pitcher who has never yielded a strike out an inning.
A pitcher that has never been taken highly in NFBC drafts because of that missing skill.
A pitcher who pitches TO contact, not avoiding it.
Paxton's polar opposite.
Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks is boring. Damn boring.
He is the Mutt to Paxton's Jeff.

NFBC drafters are not partial to boring. They want exciting.
Heck, Ronald Acuna is the dominant number one pick in drafts.
Exciting to Mike Trout's boring accumulation of yearly stats.
We like exciting, dominant players.
Kyle Hendricks is not exciting or dominant.
His number one skill is participation.
And Hell, any player can do that!
Hendricks almost continuous participation has netted him over 30 starts, four of his last five seasons.
Paxton has NEVER started 30 games. Never.
He did get to 29 last year. His highest ever. Coincidentally, he did not reach 200 strike outs.
Part of the reason is his 150 innings pitched. That's right. Paxton averaged just a fraction over five innings per start.
Add the five innings a start to Paxton's injury history and excitement should be replaced by red flags.

During the last five years, Hendricks keeps 'participating'.
His 818 strike outs accumulated through that participation even tops Paxton's 803.
He does this by topping Paaxton's innings, 966-733
During those five years, Paxton has lost a season of starts to Hendricks, 164-131.
Hendricks truly is, the turtle to Paxton's rabbit.
Or is he?
We think that if only Paxton were not injured, he would be the far superior pitcher.
But through those 200+ innings Hendricks has started over Paxton, Hendricks beats Paxton in other areas.
Hendricks lifetime WHIP is 1.11......Paxton's 1.21
Hendricks lifetime ERA is 3.14.......Paxton's 3.50
Hendricks lifetime Wins, 63..........Paxton 56

Hendricks is a year younger and has one less year of service than Paxton. I could have sworn the opposite would be true.
I believe it is because the sheen lasts longer on exciting over dull objects.
I don't expect this piece to have an effect on either Paxton or Hendricks draft spots.
Ultimately, we don't draft players exclusively for their pasts.
We try to project the future.
Although the future of both Paxton and Hendricks looks bright, it'll be Paxton who NFBC drafters will be coveting.
It's just the way we are.
We are mostly men.
Men are drawn to bright objects.
And we scoff at the thought of participation medals.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:36 am

Strike outs per inning have become stupid.
As stupid as home run records during the height of the steroid era.
Chris Archer has a higher rate of striking out hitters over Nolan Ryan. Seriously.
Carlos Carrasco strikes out more per inning than Sandy Koufax.
Being a good modern day pitcher gives carte blanche to match k/inn greatness.
No longer wanting 'rallies', teams are going all in on hitting home runs. Strike outs are the fallout.

Here are the top 20 k/inn ratios of pitchers who have thrown 1,000 innings in their careers.


Rank Player (yrs, age) Strikeouts per 9 IP
1. Yu Darvish (7, 32) 11.1237 R
2. Chris Sale (10, 30) 11.0839 L
3. Randy Johnson+ (22) 10.6098 L
4. Stephen Strasburg (10, 30) 10.6036 R
5. Max Scherzer (12, 34) 10.5799 R
6. Kerry Wood (14) 10.3174 R
7. Jacob deGrom (6, 31) 10.2526 R
8. Gerrit Cole (7, 28) 10.0619 R
9. Pedro Martinez+ (18) 10.0398 R
10. Chris Archer (8, 30) 9.8308 R
11. Corey Kluber (9, 33) 9.8005 R
12. Clayton Kershaw (12, 31) 9.7491 L
13. Nolan Ryan+ (27) 9.5481 R
14. Oliver Perez (17, 37) 9.5438 L
15. Trevor Bauer (8, 28) 9.4996 R
16. Carlos Carrasco (10, 32) 9.3730 R
17. Trevor Hoffman+ (18) 9.3608 R
18. Tim Lincecum (10) 9.2889 R
19. Sandy Koufax+ (12) 9.2775 L
20. Justin Verlander (15, 36) 9.0724 R


13 of the top 20 pitchers are current.
It really is amazing that Koufax and Ryan remain in the top 20. Both played in era's that played for rallies. Both played in era's where hitters were just 'trying to get a piece of the ball'.
Strike outs are a dozen a dime. Meaning 12 per every 10 innings and easily acquired.

On this list is one pitcher that humors me.
In fantasy baseball, we have one, two, three, four, and five category hitters.
We hardly ever use those terms for Starting Pitchers.
But in truth, Chris Archer has made himself into a one category pitcher.
For Pittsburgh, he won't win.
His E.R.A. and WHIP, two categories that his owners white knuckle while on the mound.
Still. There he is. More K/INN than Nolan Ryan. More than Sandy Koufax.
What an era we live in.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

User avatar
Ando
Posts: 632
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 6:00 pm

Re: Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post by Ando » Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:05 pm

Hendricks got hurt for the first time last year, kinda worries me.

Without checking, I think he sniffed 8K/9 in '17 & '18?

Hope you're well, Dan.
"Luck is the residue of design."

-Branch Rickey

User avatar
Edwards Kings
Posts: 5878
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: Duluth, Georgia

Re: Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post by Edwards Kings » Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:57 am

Gonna pull up my double-knit pants on this one and run my hands over my razor-ignored jaw while I access my inner codger on this memory....

This reminds me of a time when we only needed 1,200 or so K's to get our 80% of points and only pitchers with K/9 rates of 7.5 or better need apply. The Kyle Hendricks of that era seemed to be Mark Buehrle. Innings? Yes. Only his first year (51.1) and his last year (age 198.2) did he not pitch at least to 200+ IP. Games started. Yup, every full year at least 30 or more. Wins? Double-digit every year save the first (low of 10, high of 19 and 16 twice). Career BB/9 was 2.0. ERA was serviceable usually from the mid-3's to low 4's, Hittable (pitched to contact) but the low walk rate kept his career WHIP to 1.281. Mostly on bad CHW teams.

K-rate? His high for K's was 165 in the inaugural year of the NFBC of 2004. In three of his full-time years he did not break 100, but in those three years won 12, 13, and 15 times. Career K/9 was 5.1 and he gassed up to 6.1 twice.

Always drafted it seemed, but late. The fantasy and real baseball equivalent of the reliable back end of the rotation arm.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

Thurman15
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:27 pm

Re: Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post by Thurman15 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:43 am

I believe the answer (rightly or wrongly) is that Paxton MIGHT have 200 K's and an excellent ERA and ratio, and he MIGHT get 17 wins. Whereas Kyle Hendricks is considered slightly above average. In short, Paxton still has a higher ceiling, and by a fair bit. I know that I draft Paxton in some years and I NEVER draft Hendricks.
Rogers Hornsby, Hall of Famer with the Cardinals was once asked " You love Baseball Rogers, but what do you do in the winter ? " His response......"I stare out the window and wait for spring "

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:47 am

Thanks Matt, best wishes to you and yours as well.

I have a soft spot for pitch to contact pitchers. The art of getting a hitter to ground out weakly on the first pitch has been replaced by a K after eight pitches.
Jimmy Key, Don Sutton (never a fan of the man himself), Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mark Buehrle, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Hendricks are all 'artsy' type pitchers. Hitters call them 'Comfortable Out' pitchers.

The amusing thing is that I love watching them work. BUT owning them in fantasy is harrowing.
If their stuff is not in tune, it makes for a long day.
These type of pitchers can give up eight runs in 60 pitches and the Manager feels obligated, still, to leave him in with the low pitch count.
The harder throwers usually lose control, leading to more pitches and an early exit before our stats take much of a beating.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Participation Medals Are Not Wanted in the NFBC

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:49 am

Thurman15 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:43 am
I believe the answer (rightly or wrongly) is that Paxton MIGHT have 200 K's and an excellent ERA and ratio, and he MIGHT get 17 wins. Whereas Kyle Hendricks is considered slightly above average. In short, Paxton still has a higher ceiling, and by a fair bit. I know that I draft Paxton in some years and I NEVER draft Hendricks.
You are right. It is that ANTICIPATION that draws us like bees to honey. But, in most years, Hendricks turns out to be the better buy.
Paxton is truly a rabbit to Hendricks turtle.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Post Reply