Hype Over Substance

[DOUGHBOYS]

As a group, we love the hype, don't we?
There is nothing like a fresh prospect to get us going.
Look at our friend Louie Bob (thanks text group!)
Louie Bob is a pet name Luis Robert.
Many, many sites already have him as the leadoff hitter for a White Sox lineup that seemingly gets better every day.
Seems a bit unfair to expect that much, but let's roll with that.

Robert is pristine in drafters eyes.
He has speed. He has power. He can hit.
Louie Bob, more importantly, has never hurt us in the past. A clean slate.
And when the White Sox signed Louie Bob to a contract, it eliminated the thought of Louie Bob starting the year in the Minor Leagues.
That piece of news has given Louie Bob a bit of a boost in DC's and folks are drafting him in the fifth and sixth rounds.
Listening to pundits, Louie Bob is a can't miss Star.
Of course he is. That is because every player who rips the minors is called a can't miss Star.
And the funny thing is that even if those Star's miss, hello Lewis Brinson, we still draft them for years thinking maybe THIS is the year.

Byron Buxton was a can't miss Star. He has missed a lot.
He has never returned the price from any round selected in an NFBC draft.
His fall is slow and deliberate. That is how much we trust the hypesters.
One a can't miss star misses, we hate the thought of missing out if he does come around.
Buxton is usually available in round 10 of most drafts.
If you're in a draft with me and wanting Buxton in the 10th round, go for it, it won't be me taking him.

Look at these numbers...

.272/52/15/69/0
.261/79/15/47/5
.234/76/17/57/4
.226/59/15/46/6
.244/55/23/93/3

These are statistics of seemingly run-of-the-mill players, right?
What sets these numbers apart are the player and hype that goes with them.
The first set of numbers belong to Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero Jr. is already embarking on a 'best shape of my life' tour.
Mostly because upon his promotion to the big leagues last year, he won the BAIB Award.
Biggest Ass in Baseball. Of course, this is literal. Others vie for the figurative award.
Anyway, despite those mediocre numbers, the hype of Guerrero makes him a fifth round pick.

Hype also has something to do with the second set of numbers.
Those belong to my good friend, Joey Votto.
When a player has several good years, then a bad year, he becomes a bounce back candidate.
This is because we've seen so much of the good, that we can't believe the bad is here.
Not every player gets this hype. Only some.
The third set of numbers is Brandon Belt.
Poor Belt. I only put his numbers here to illustrate just how bad the other numbers are!
The fourth set of numbers is Matt Carpenter.
He is not getting the Votto bounce back treatment.
In fact, some sites have him on the Cardinals bench.
I have $10 bet that Carpenter beats Votto in more roto Categories this coming year. Go Carpy!

And the last set of numbers is the player that folks have been drafting since just after the turn of the century.
Albert Pujols, unlike Louie Bob, came with little hype.
During that Spring Training of 2001, Mark McGwire implored Tony LaRussa to not send the Pujols kid down to the minors.
Pujols played 161 games that year. .329/112/37/130/1
Louie Bob will not come close to matching those numbers.
Heck, if he matches Pujols last year numbers, reversing RBI and Runs with a few stolen bases, a lot of drafters would call it good.
Anyway you look at it, Louis Bob has his fantasy ticket punched.
Thrive or fail, he'll be a top 10 rounder for the next few years.
Hype is like that.

[mbendar16]

Dan,
Nice post - only you can find a way to get Votto into a post that includes Vlad Jr.

This could be me, but I think the only reason Buxton is still sniffing the first 10 rounds is because of his speed. The only thing he has done consistently when healthy enough to stay on the field is know how to steal a base. In this fantasy landscape, the 20-30 steals he would get if healthy is around that spot. The potential to put it all together of course adds a few rounds, maybe 5, to his healthy appropriate round.

As you note all the time, staying healthy is a skill and Buxton doesn't have it. As some point, just like Tulo, the luster will end and the fall will be steep when it does.

Mark

[thepats]

Good stuff. Guess I'll have to stop drafting Lewis Brinson. Maybe next year.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Buxton and even Brinson fit into my next point.
This draft season is little more than half over. But, you know what phrase I hear the most?
It is always something along these lines...."He can't hit that well, but might get me more bags".
If Billy Hamilton (another hyper) were having his rookie season this year, it would be through the roof.
Drafters have put speed on all their Santa lists.

Has Victor Robles stayed healthy or hit enough to be taken in the fourth round?
We all know the answer is no.
But, he can run.
It is what props him up.
It is what props Buxton up.
It even props Brinson up late in DC's.

Trea Turner was being taken fourth overall last year because of the thought of 70 steals.
That thought has all but perished now, but 40-45 thefts are still enough to keep him as a first rounder.
I believe if one player can steal 70-75 bases, it will be Turner.
His team lost Rendon.
Eaton, unexplainably, stayed healthy all last year.
That offense may need a kick in the bags and Turner could do that.
If ever he was going fourth overall, it should be this year, not last.

Jose Ramirez who had his worst year, last year, only fell one round.
Why?
Because he ran.
We are ok enough in our fantasy skill set to build around speed. If Ramirez does not return to his hitting ways, it's alright.
He'll still steal more than any other 3B.
We have the need for speed this year.
The demand overcoming the supply.
Just look at the rounds 30-45 in DC's.
Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson are being drafted there.
They don't have jobs and may not even get a Major League gig this year.
They can't hit their way out of a paper bag.
But we are 'Dumb and Dumber'.
Drafters are saying, "So, you're telling me there's a chance."

[Edwards Kings]

The two magnetic poles of season long fantasy baseball. Recency bias (good September so he must be good, bad year so he must suck) versus projection/hype (but if he DOES steal 70, I will look like a genius).