Hype Over Substance
Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:28 am
As a group, we love the hype, don't we?
There is nothing like a fresh prospect to get us going.
Look at our friend Louie Bob (thanks text group!)
Louie Bob is a pet name Luis Robert.
Many, many sites already have him as the leadoff hitter for a White Sox lineup that seemingly gets better every day.
Seems a bit unfair to expect that much, but let's roll with that.
Robert is pristine in drafters eyes.
He has speed. He has power. He can hit.
Louie Bob, more importantly, has never hurt us in the past. A clean slate.
And when the White Sox signed Louie Bob to a contract, it eliminated the thought of Louie Bob starting the year in the Minor Leagues.
That piece of news has given Louie Bob a bit of a boost in DC's and folks are drafting him in the fifth and sixth rounds.
Listening to pundits, Louie Bob is a can't miss Star.
Of course he is. That is because every player who rips the minors is called a can't miss Star.
And the funny thing is that even if those Star's miss, hello Lewis Brinson, we still draft them for years thinking maybe THIS is the year.
Byron Buxton was a can't miss Star. He has missed a lot.
He has never returned the price from any round selected in an NFBC draft.
His fall is slow and deliberate. That is how much we trust the hypesters.
One a can't miss star misses, we hate the thought of missing out if he does come around.
Buxton is usually available in round 10 of most drafts.
If you're in a draft with me and wanting Buxton in the 10th round, go for it, it won't be me taking him.
Look at these numbers...
.272/52/15/69/0
.261/79/15/47/5
.234/76/17/57/4
.226/59/15/46/6
.244/55/23/93/3
These are statistics of seemingly run-of-the-mill players, right?
What sets these numbers apart are the player and hype that goes with them.
The first set of numbers belong to Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero Jr. is already embarking on a 'best shape of my life' tour.
Mostly because upon his promotion to the big leagues last year, he won the BAIB Award.
Biggest Ass in Baseball. Of course, this is literal. Others vie for the figurative award.
Anyway, despite those mediocre numbers, the hype of Guerrero makes him a fifth round pick.
Hype also has something to do with the second set of numbers.
Those belong to my good friend, Joey Votto.
When a player has several good years, then a bad year, he becomes a bounce back candidate.
This is because we've seen so much of the good, that we can't believe the bad is here.
Not every player gets this hype. Only some.
The third set of numbers is Brandon Belt.
Poor Belt. I only put his numbers here to illustrate just how bad the other numbers are!
The fourth set of numbers is Matt Carpenter.
He is not getting the Votto bounce back treatment.
In fact, some sites have him on the Cardinals bench.
I have $10 bet that Carpenter beats Votto in more roto Categories this coming year. Go Carpy!
And the last set of numbers is the player that folks have been drafting since just after the turn of the century.
Albert Pujols, unlike Louie Bob, came with little hype.
During that Spring Training of 2001, Mark McGwire implored Tony LaRussa to not send the Pujols kid down to the minors.
Pujols played 161 games that year. .329/112/37/130/1
Louie Bob will not come close to matching those numbers.
Heck, if he matches Pujols last year numbers, reversing RBI and Runs with a few stolen bases, a lot of drafters would call it good.
Anyway you look at it, Louis Bob has his fantasy ticket punched.
Thrive or fail, he'll be a top 10 rounder for the next few years.
Hype is like that.
There is nothing like a fresh prospect to get us going.
Look at our friend Louie Bob (thanks text group!)
Louie Bob is a pet name Luis Robert.
Many, many sites already have him as the leadoff hitter for a White Sox lineup that seemingly gets better every day.
Seems a bit unfair to expect that much, but let's roll with that.
Robert is pristine in drafters eyes.
He has speed. He has power. He can hit.
Louie Bob, more importantly, has never hurt us in the past. A clean slate.
And when the White Sox signed Louie Bob to a contract, it eliminated the thought of Louie Bob starting the year in the Minor Leagues.
That piece of news has given Louie Bob a bit of a boost in DC's and folks are drafting him in the fifth and sixth rounds.
Listening to pundits, Louie Bob is a can't miss Star.
Of course he is. That is because every player who rips the minors is called a can't miss Star.
And the funny thing is that even if those Star's miss, hello Lewis Brinson, we still draft them for years thinking maybe THIS is the year.
Byron Buxton was a can't miss Star. He has missed a lot.
He has never returned the price from any round selected in an NFBC draft.
His fall is slow and deliberate. That is how much we trust the hypesters.
One a can't miss star misses, we hate the thought of missing out if he does come around.
Buxton is usually available in round 10 of most drafts.
If you're in a draft with me and wanting Buxton in the 10th round, go for it, it won't be me taking him.
Look at these numbers...
.272/52/15/69/0
.261/79/15/47/5
.234/76/17/57/4
.226/59/15/46/6
.244/55/23/93/3
These are statistics of seemingly run-of-the-mill players, right?
What sets these numbers apart are the player and hype that goes with them.
The first set of numbers belong to Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero Jr. is already embarking on a 'best shape of my life' tour.
Mostly because upon his promotion to the big leagues last year, he won the BAIB Award.
Biggest Ass in Baseball. Of course, this is literal. Others vie for the figurative award.
Anyway, despite those mediocre numbers, the hype of Guerrero makes him a fifth round pick.
Hype also has something to do with the second set of numbers.
Those belong to my good friend, Joey Votto.
When a player has several good years, then a bad year, he becomes a bounce back candidate.
This is because we've seen so much of the good, that we can't believe the bad is here.
Not every player gets this hype. Only some.
The third set of numbers is Brandon Belt.
Poor Belt. I only put his numbers here to illustrate just how bad the other numbers are!
The fourth set of numbers is Matt Carpenter.
He is not getting the Votto bounce back treatment.
In fact, some sites have him on the Cardinals bench.
I have $10 bet that Carpenter beats Votto in more roto Categories this coming year. Go Carpy!
And the last set of numbers is the player that folks have been drafting since just after the turn of the century.
Albert Pujols, unlike Louie Bob, came with little hype.
During that Spring Training of 2001, Mark McGwire implored Tony LaRussa to not send the Pujols kid down to the minors.
Pujols played 161 games that year. .329/112/37/130/1
Louie Bob will not come close to matching those numbers.
Heck, if he matches Pujols last year numbers, reversing RBI and Runs with a few stolen bases, a lot of drafters would call it good.
Anyway you look at it, Louis Bob has his fantasy ticket punched.
Thrive or fail, he'll be a top 10 rounder for the next few years.
Hype is like that.