Sleepers My Ass

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Sleepers My Ass

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:25 am

So, I am reading some fantasy baseball stories and come across this one....

"FIVE CATCHING SLEEPERS FOR 2020 FANTASY BASEBALL!"

The first thing I think is that this is not written by somebody who plays in the NFBC. If playing in the NFBC, really, there are no such things as 'sleepers'.
Before technology and the NFBC, sleepers were players that few knew about. It could have been a prospect or little known player.
Most folks in the NFBC know the inventory. While the normal fan can name the Stars on their own teams, NFBC folks can name their bullpen and tell them who is likely to come up from the minors to help that bullpen.

The story listed Carson Kelly, Jorge Alfaro, Austin Romine, Jason Castro, and Jacob Stallings casts as 'the sleepers'.
Our archaic (and stupid 2-catcher) system of having two catchers required is the big reason a story like this can be written.
We draft catchers as if punishing ourselves. We tell ourselves that it's 'strategic' to have two catchers, but deep down we know it's the penalty paid for following a stupid tradition from long ago.
Seriously, think about it.....
If we would have had a one-catcher system all this time, would there be a soul who would want to switch to two catchers?
We all know the answer.
Sometimes, tradition sucks.

Anyway, none of these catchers are strangers or sleepers to us. We know them. Probably already owned one or two in the past.
The story goes on to list some benefits of each catcher and get this...includes their NFBC ADP!
Now...Now I'm wondering if this writer thinks we got them wrong. Should these catchers be taken before this ADP?
I re-read the story and it never said anything about 'beating adp'.
So, what do I do with this story?
If I take this writers advice and draft one of these catchers, should I jump their ADP?
Or should I go with the flow of the story, convince myself that these are real 'sleepers' and be confident that they'll be available after their ADP?
The truth being that I'll do neither since the writers arguments for all five players did not sell me.

If writing a story like this, SELL ME!
Make me want a player!
This fella recited some contact rates, k-rates, some other rates, and wrote a second-rate article.
One of the selling points on Alfaro being his four stolen bases!
Woo Hoo!

For me, 'Sleeper' has changed from a player little known to a player who we can get and like and pay next to nothing for him.
But really, isn't that what we're doing with EVERY pick?
We hope that each pick exceeds expectations for the round selected.
I've also noticed that there are millions of 'sleeper-like' columns.
It is just incredibly easy to say that players near the end of a draft will beat expectations.
Why do we never see the opposite?

"FIVE FIRST ROUND PICKS WHO WILL BUST!"

We never see articles like that because THAT would take balls.
It's easy to say how great Ronald Acuna and Mike Trout are. Easy.
Tell me why I shouldn't take them at the top.
The first pick of each draft rarely returns first pick status.
Yet, we never question the top players going where they go.
And worse, writers do not either.
It's easier to bottom feed.

Since I'm here, and the last time I checked, I had balls, I'll give you a pick to bust.
Let's call it....

"CHRISTIAN FED TO SHARKS!"

Damn, I need to work the word 'sleeper' in there.
Anyway, I'm not drafting Christian Yelich this year. I can list contact rates, k-rates, or other second rate stats that are based on last year bias, but the truth is I've lost confidence in Yelich playing a full season. Back problems never seem to go away and progressively, back ailments have been catching up to Yelich.
Remember when owning Chipper Jones?
Jones was a great own WHEN HE PLAYED. But as his career progressed, his playing time did the opposite.
If getting a top five pick, I am avoiding Yelich for that simple reason.
Staying healthy is a skill. His other skills are all intact. No need for 'rates'.
More important for a first rounder than any other pick, is health.

I just re-read what I wrote.
I started out to put this stupid article in its place.
Put down 'sleepers', ranted about the two-catcher system, and gave a pick going in the top three who I think will bust this year.
THIS is why I'm not a 'real' writer.
I have no focus :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Edwards Kings
Posts: 5879
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: Duluth, Georgia

Re: Sleepers My Ass

Post by Edwards Kings » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:27 pm

No...it is not lack of focus. Your are a (the) big dawg of fantasy baseball. But as a dawg you need to see everything, smell everything, mark it as your own...you just happen to see something in the periphery from time to time!

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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