NFBC Message Boards

I've played in the NFBC for a very, very long time. Every year about this time, I have already semi-formulated a plan for the Main Event.
I try to combine 'smart' picks or what the draft allows me along with players that I will vault ahead of ADP because I believe ADP missed on these players.
This year, I believe I have my offense aligned.
Pitching?
No clue.

Podcasters, writers, so-called 'experts'...they always seem to have a plan, don't they?
The problem being that most of these fellas are slaves to recency bias and track records.
Max Scherzer is ranked very high by ADP and these experts.
What they see is a track record and a good year last year.
What I see is a great pitcher who may have seen his last fully healthy year.
There is no worse pick to make then selecting somebody like Scherzer, ignoring the signs from last year, only to fall victim to another year of ouches.
Does deGrom get Wins?
Does Cole adjust in NY?
Does Flaherty match the last half of last year or the first half?
Kershaw hurt,,,again?
Bueller pick up the slack?
Have we seen the last of dominant Chris Sale?
Ask a podcaster! They know. I sure as Hell don't.

Most years, I have a list of pitchers that will beat ADP.
I have one for this year too, but it's the smallest damned list I've ever had.
Combine this with Managers being 'happy' to get five innings from Starters and our job is all the harder.
Heck, even with Closers, we're a little screwed.
Josh Hader is the first Closer off the board. Think Hader is 'safe'? Consider this....
1. Hader was only a Closer because of injury last year.
2. The Brewers would rather use him as a 'Utility reliever'.
3. Hader could be traded to a team like the Yankees, where more than likely, he would not Close.
Don't you love pitching?

Last year, the first two Closers off the NFBC Boards were Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen.
How'd that work out for us?
And believe me, every podcaster, every writer, and every 'expert' was telling us that Diaz and Treinen were as 'safe as it gets'.
Uh huh.
This year, not one pitcher is 'safe'.
From Gerritt Cole to Ivan Nova, no pitcher is truly 'safe'.
But those podcasters, writers, and experts think they have the answers.
Regurgitating recency bias and past history, and Voila!,,,,Their lists are finished.

Each year gets harder for us because we see less of these Starters.
A few years ago, Corey Kluber was the last Starter to average seven innings a start.
Now, Starters are having problems averaging even six innings.
Sonny Gray is a popular pick this year. He averaged 5 2/3 innings a Start last year.
Gray Started 31 Games. He threw seven innings in a game just three times. Three!
Max Fried averaged barely five innings.
That's only right.
Because the Braves babied him.
In 33 games, Fried threw 100 pitches just three times.
If wanting more pitches per game and not afraid of injury, draft a an old war horse.
Pitchers like Verlander, Scherzer, and Bumgarner have pitched long enough that they can tell the Manager they are throwing another inning.
We like innings.
It means strike out chances increase.
It means if behind, another chance for their team to score and get a Win for that pitcher.

For us, the odd number of 4 2/3 drives us crazy.
We are seeing it more and more because Starters thresholds and standards have lowered.
Managers have fresh arms and they love showing how smart they are by using them.
It could be worse this year with the 26-man roster.

And yet, these podcasters, writers, and experts know who to choose among pitchers.
And you know what's scary?
There are more podcasters, writers, and experts than ever before.
For me, I don't listen to podcasts.
I follow a very slim group of writers.
And for me, an expert's first claim had better be that he's done well in the NFBC. If that is not first on the resume, then we don't have an expert.
Only a person who is going through the motions of acting like an expert.

I listened to a show on XM Radio the other day.
The Fella was ranting and raving about what a great pitcher Chris Sale was and that we should not be afraid to take him.
Uh Huh.
So easy to say.
Now, enter a Main Event, plop down $1700 and draft Sale....in the bottom of the first or top of the second.
I'd be willing to bet that this fellas asshole would pucker at the thought.
Yet, he advises all the Yahoo Kids who play in free leagues that Sale is gold.
Before technology, we had few experts. We read magazines that were already outdated by the time we read them.
Now, there's an expert on every corner and most are not as good as that outdated magazine.
And if they say they know their pitching, move on.
They know as much as me about pitching, which is damned little.

This has nothing to do with the first post. Just didn't want to start another subject line.

I watched the talking heads debate whether Larry Walker should be in the Hall of Fame or not.
His backers say that he was a great all-around ball player.
His detractors saying that he was hurt too much.

It got me thinking about injury. Each of us process injury differently.
Jacoby Ellsbury is thought of as perma-injured.
We think of him as almost stealing the money from a large contract.
We don't think that way of Dustin Pedroia.
We think of Pedroia as gritty and that he just happens to have knee problems.
Still, Pedroia will be making 55 million dollars over the last four years of a contact that saw him play nine games over these last four years.

Going into last year, we thought of Max Scherzer as indestructible.
This year, not so much.
Pitchers have Tommy John as often as we go see an optometrist.
It's now part of our game.
Even kids getting Tommy John in High School and College shrug it off and are 'just glad it's over'.

Some see Jordan Hicks as a possible Closer after the All Star break this year.
Some see him as a possibility in 2021.
We know Christian Yelich has numbers too hard to resist. Enough even, to make us forget that he has back problems.
Chipper Jones was one of the best players of all time.
But during his last years, which were good, he was a pain in the ass to his owners in that he would sit games freely because of injury.

Sandy Koufax had his career shortened by elbow pain.
Nobody thought he should tough it out and throw more.
He said enough is enough.
He is in the Hall of Fame.
Dizzy Dean had a Career shortened by injury.
He took a line drive off his toe.
When taken to the hospital, a doctor told Diz, "Dizzy, your toe is fractured."
Dizzy yelled back, "Bullshit! That toe's not fractured. It's broken! Can't you see that?!"
The fractured or broken toe was the beginning of the end for Dean.
He changed his pitching motion to help the toe and it only served to injure his pitching arm.
Dean was voted to the Hall of Fame.

Interesting, right?
We see Ellsbury with many owwies and we're harsh on him.
We see Pedroia with a horrible knee and we ease up.
We see what happened to Koufax.
And we see what happened to Dizzy Dean.
Catastrophic and forgivable.
Larry Walker who missed games during each and every season, less so.
We didn't see him get hurt.There was nothing catastrophic.
So, we have less patience for him.
For the Walker detractors, it's not really that he was injured. He just wasn't injured in an acceptable way.

Right on the ball about the talking heads, Dan. Spinning their wheels on "Top 10" lists...my eye...the neighbors dog can match their lists by just looking at last years stats. Waste of time. Even top 20 or 30. Unless somebody gets traded or a FA signs, the 30- 60 guys get little or no "analysis". Those are the guys I need something new on. A few of those guys will a) get a chance; b) out-perform their historicals; or c) ride a hot team to counting stat glory. And next year, they will be in the "Top 10", but the trick will be to discover who they are now (or maybe just get lucky).

Not even talking about the next 80 or so that will be drafted for the back end of rotations or reserves....

Walker in...Jeter not 100%...