The Need for Speed

[DOUGHBOYS]

Each draft through the NFBC years have been different. Especially at the top of drafts.
When the NFBC started in 2004, very few pitchers were drafted in the first and second rounds.
It was thought that a team needed to build a power base.
A power base gives numbers in at least three categories. Four for the top players.
Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera dominating the top of the drafts for awhile.

Johan Santana would make most first rounds in 2005. And from there, slowly, very slowly, pitchers started becoming 'acceptable' in the first round by NFBC players.
Ever behind, writers still subscribed to waiting on pitchers. NFBC players knew better and more and more pitchers were taken in the first and second rounds.
Since then, we don't blink when pitchers are taken in the first round.
Believe it or not, some writers still preach that we should wait on pitchers.
What do you expect?
Writers can't put Willie Mays of that generation or Derek Jeter of this generation unanimously in the Hall of Fame.

Over the last few years, power has still dominated the first round.
But now, that is even turning. We like five tool players. So Mike Trout is a constant number one, while players like Mookie Betts nipped on his heels.
We are a supply and demand game.
Now, power is all over our game. Even fellas not readily drafted on NFBC teams are hitting 20 home runs.
Ian Desmond hit 20 home runs in a crappy year.
Brian Dozier played part time and hit 20 homers.
Heck, Adam Jones hit 16 and he has to play in Japan.
Sufficith to say, homers have become like beer in a bar.

Missing from the first round now, are slugs.
The power fellas that used to be favorites.
Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, JD Martinez have the same skills as possible 10th rounders now.
When Chris Davis hit 50 homers, recency bias made him a first round pick the following year.
Pete Alonso hit 50 home runs last year and is barely hanging on to the second round of drafts this year.
The demand for home runs has severely lessened for us.

In real baseball, the stolen base is a luxury.
Schmart Management saying that they don't want to give up outs on the base paths.
With that roto category drying up, demand has gone through the roof.
The only projected first rounder to have less than 10 stolen bases is Nolan Arenado.
And with trade rumors circulating, Arenado is falling like a rock in DC drafts and may become a second rounder soon.

We are more forgiving of players....if they have speed.
Jose Ramirez had a horrific year for Jose Ramirez last year.
He is still a top of the second round pick....because of speed.
Jonathon Villar will be playing for yet another team this year. He wears out a welcome fast in clubhouses.
For us, we don't care. He has speed.

While we have the need for speed, our tastes have become more discerning.
Late picks in DC's like Rajai Davis and Jarred Dyson are mostly gone.
Speed only guys like Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon barely have real jobs and are thumbed at by both baseball hierarchy and NFBC drafters now.
Trea Turner is like Carl Crawford from a few years ago.
His drafters can bank on the stolen bases, then pray for more.
JT Realmuto is the top catcher although other catchers out-homered him.
Realmuto doubled the output of nearly every other catcher when it came to stolen bases.
THAT is all drafters need to know.
They are getting speed out of a position that bears little.
Or, blood from a turnip.

Like driving a car, there are speed traps.
Drafting Turner, then forgetting about speed, is a trap.
Same with drafting Acuna, Trout, or Yelich and pairing them with Marte and forgetting about speed.
On paper, we have 50-80 stolen bases or whatever you think you have...
In reality, nobody gets hurt in baseball more among position players, than speed guys.
Speed is their game and the more a player moves on the baseball field, the chances increase that he will get hurt.
Every player mentioned in this paragraph battled some sort of injury last year.
Injuries are another speed trap.
Worse, they cannot be foreseen.
Speed players are like pitchers. We draft and pray.
But one thing is for sure, unless punting the category, we have to have them.

In 2019, eleven players stole 25 bases or more.
Seven of those 11 players are being drafted in the top five rounds.
Just 10 years before that, 29 players stole 25 bases or more. Three players stole 60 or more in 2009.
The most last year, was 46.
Indeed, a challenging category.

[Edwards Kings]

Right you are Dan. We used to worry about position, as well. Drafting maybe a lessor bat because they played a "thin" position. Since there are so few catchers who would be drafted for any other reason than they might get 375 AB at the position, I do not feel position scarcity has any validity anymore.

Now, we just accumulate as many stats as we can, no matter the position, until we are forced by to fill out the roster. Because of that, there are drafts within the draft. The speed draft, the BA draft (hmmm....that .255 BA won't hurt me too bad), the Power (HR, RBI) draft, the K draft, the please don't hurt my ERA/WHIP draft, and the saves draft.

At least that is how it seems to have morphed to me...