Mocks and ADP

[DOUGHBOYS]

We used to have mock drafts. Folks took them quite seriously, Some, even said that mocks were a source of study. How they came up with this conclusion, I'll never know.
Study is something YOU do.
You don't depend on others opinion's in a mock draft to count as 'study. That's preposterous.
For the NFBC, mocks have mostly gone away. NFBC drafters have realized that some of the mock drafters stopped giving a rats ass after a few rounds.
In some, the default would pick for mock drafters.
Wonderful.
A big waste of time.

Now we have ADP.
NFBC drafters depend on ADP even more than mock drafts in preparation for drafting.
They want to know how much they can get away with.
For instance, if loving Chris Sale, his ADP is 37.
KDS will have to be at the top of the draft for the best chance in drafting Chris Sale.
If the drafting position is 8-15, you would have to draft Sale well before his ADP to pocket Sale.
Or, ask for help from the Fantasy God and hope Sale drops below his ADP.
This is commonly called 'value'. Don't get me started.

ADP is made up of mostly losing drafters.
Hardly any of these drafters took Yordan Alvarez last year.
Most of these drafters got Jean Segura wrong in the fourth round and Marcus Semien wrong in the 10th round.
Now, they're reversed and it'll probably be wrong again this year.
ADP was wrong on Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon, Gerritt Cole, Rafael Devers, and A LOT more last year.
While we look to cheat ADP to get so-called 'value' from it, we are also getting a little brainwashed by it.
Look at the default and ADP in your next draft. I have never seen them run as close together in the past as they are this year.
After a year in which ADP sucked, we, as a whole, are following it like sheep this year!

For some reason, we are more comfortable in drafting Lucas Giolito as a third round pick due to recency bias rather than overdraft a coveted pitcher in the eighth round with an ADP of the 10th round.
There are less 'drastic' picks so far this year.
It may be the quality of Draft Champion drafters.
It may be that Draft Champions drafters do not want to 'show their cards' for the large drafts in March.

Everything changes for those big drafts in March.
For those brainwashed by ADP, it'll be a shock.
Main Event drafters do not put as much stock in ADP's.
First of all, the DC's and Main Event are two different games.
DC's have no FAAB.
They are looking for year-long players in trying to keep numbers flowing from every position all year long.
Seth Lugo could be a great pick in the 21st round of a DC.
In a Main Event, unless feeling strongly that Edwin Diaz will fail and Betances is not the next option, Lugo is not that alluring.
He'll most likely be available in FAAB most leagues.
Second, the cost of a Main Event is more than tenfold the cost of a DC.
Nothing makes us think for ourselves more than money.
At $150 some might think that the flock may be right.
At $1700 most will think, screw them, if losing that much money, it'll be with my own damned players!

If drafting in DC's, take a look at the default and ADP numbers.
Take a look and see if I'm right.
DC's are at an all-time high.
A lot of new drafters.
Maybe these drafters trust the default and ADP.
More than they should.