Being Civil with the V Word

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Being Civil with the V Word

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:36 pm

I've had three or four conversations through chat, email, and phone about the drafting of players.
With my many articles railing against 'Value', I get a lot of snark about the word. Understandable.
But in these three or four conversations, we talked about the word at it's best.
Unlike podcasters who use the word once in every five words. Instead of getting better in not using the word, its gotten drastically worse.
Heck, we even say auction 'values' now. And instead of ADP, it's AAV. Puhleeese!

But anyway, back to those conversations....
A fella asked me if I would rather get a player at 'value' or reach for a player. I love the question.
Let's say you're like me and do not trust Chris Sale this year. Sale is being drafted in the bottom of the second or sometimes third round.
At the same time you believe that Yu Darvish is going to be fantastic this year. Darvish is being drafted in the fifth round.
Throughout all your drafts, you have ignored Sale and drafted Darvish in the fourth and fifth rounds. The fourth being a reach, but you wanted a Ace.
Ok, now we come to the Big draft.
The draft is going along and it comes to the fourth round. You are floored. Chris Sale is still there.
According to all accounts.....THIS is VALUE. The word all the experts, writers, and podcasters preach. This is it!
What do you do?

If you are a good drafter and believe in your own methodology and do not get swayed by noise, you would take Darvish.
You have no confidence in Sale. You've said that by bypassing him in every draft.
Now, that he is a 'value' will he pitch any better?
No.
Those 15 drafters in that one draft may be smarter than ADP by the thousands.
If you even thought about taking Sale and living with him for the next six months, you didn't really trust yourself.
You may as well get a wool coat and say 'baaaa' for those six months because you turned into a sheep.

Value focuses on the draft room game. The draft room game is to get as much player as possible for the lowest price.
Unfortunately, most think that 'price' is ADP.
We get confused during drafting season.
We think the most important question is 'Where'.
As in, Where did you draft Chris Sale?'
Tell me, when looking at your roster on the first day of baseball season, do you care 'WHERE' you got any of those players?
Hell no!
The important question is 'WHO'.
When seeing Chris Sale's name on that roster, you may throw up in your mouth a little bit because you made a promise to yourself that Sale was going to end up with Tommy John and to stay far away. Now, you're looking at his name on your big team.
And, you have to look at it for six months....Because of....value

The best part of drafting is when 'value' finds you.
Let's say in that same draft that you bypasses Sale.
But Luis Castillo also fell.
You're not passionate about Castillo but like the thought of getting him in the fourth round.
You want Darvish, but with the way Starters are falling, you decide to take a chance. You draft Castillo and hope that Darvish is available in the fifth.
When he does, you snatch him up.
In essence, you just got a double 'value'.
An unexpected Castillo in the fourth and your guy Darvish in the fifth.
The real value, of course, being established when the season begins.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Being Civil with the V Word

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:41 pm

Continued.... (Stupid Message Boards didn't let me post the whole thing at once...)

Reaching is a little like the anti-value. At least, that is the perception.
One of those conversations mentioned brought up Carter Kieboom.
This drafter thought that Carter Kieboom would far outplay his ADP.
Kieboom is being taken in the 20th round or so.
This drafter is thinking 10th round numbers.
What to do?
Well, if loving Kieboom this much, the drafter will never stop thinking about him when the draft commences.
I offered that each draft will let him know when to select Kieboom.
From the 15th round on is when he is 'draftable.
If not passionate about players on the board from the 15th to 20th rounds, take Kieboom.
Even if drafting him in the 15th, it secures that he got him AND he's still five rounds ahead if believing in 10th round returns.

The word 'value' means different things to different drafters.
Usually, it is used in beating ADP.
It doesn't have to be that way.
The Kieboom drafter sees value in OVER drafting a player. A so-called' reach'.
In this case and in his mind, he reached AND got value.
'Value' can be beauty during a draft.
But like beauty, it is in the eye of the beholder.
Sale, in the fourth round would/could be a Godsend for that drafter. Value in the eye of that beholder.
To the drafter I was talking about, he becomes a trap.
Next time you hear an expert, podcaster, or writer exclaim 'VALUE'!
It's just his, not ours.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Gb2715
Posts: 274
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:59 pm

Re: Being Civil with the V Word

Post by Gb2715 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:17 pm

Every time I talk about how I hate the word value and value drafting I get so much pushback. My response is always value means nothing until the last day of the season. We have no idea what a players value is until that day. So take your guys and who fits your team and win the damn league!!!!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Being Civil with the V Word

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:39 pm

Gb2715 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:17 pm
Every time I talk about how I hate the word value and value drafting I get so much pushback. My response is always value means nothing until the last day of the season. We have no idea what a players value is until that day. So take your guys and who fits your team and win the damn league!!!!
Me too, Greg. I get the word thrown back in my face all the time.
Although 'value' means something different to each drafter, especially in a players worth, experts, podcaters, and writers treat it like it's universal.
I don't get it.
"He is great value right there" should be the name of some podcasters next baby.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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ToddZ
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Re: Being Civil with the V Word

Post by ToddZ » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:33 pm

Found this in a column from some clown, I hear he also does podcasts too

Value is the most misused term in fantasy baseball, well, all fantasy sports. Value is past tense. We don't know a player's value until after the season. Yet, many will contend a good draft or auction is all about getting value. A perceived good pick or buy is deemed a great value. After an MLB trade, everyone wants to know how a player's value will change.

I get it. I know what everyone means. Once a year I blow off a little steam and make this challenge. When you see or hear "value" in fantasy analysis, substitute "potential". Around 95 percent of the time, the statement makes more sense. The rest of the time replace it with "price". At the end of day, it doesn't matter, people know what you mean when you say "value". My point is, using the other terms hammers home that value isn't actually known, that we're talking about potential stats, potential points, etc. It's about the mindset. Value connotes rigidity. Potential serves to remind us that we don't know what will happen, which could lead to stronger roster construction.
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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Being Civil with the V Word

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:02 pm

ToddZ wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:33 pm
Found this in a column from some clown, I hear he also does podcasts too

Value is the most misused term in fantasy baseball, well, all fantasy sports. Value is past tense. We don't know a player's value until after the season. Yet, many will contend a good draft or auction is all about getting value. A perceived good pick or buy is deemed a great value. After an MLB trade, everyone wants to know how a player's value will change.

I get it. I know what everyone means. Once a year I blow off a little steam and make this challenge. When you see or hear "value" in fantasy analysis, substitute "potential". Around 95 percent of the time, the statement makes more sense. The rest of the time replace it with "price". At the end of day, it doesn't matter, people know what you mean when you say "value". My point is, using the other terms hammers home that value isn't actually known, that we're talking about potential stats, potential points, etc. It's about the mindset. Value connotes rigidity. Potential serves to remind us that we don't know what will happen, which could lead to stronger roster construction.
I never thought I'd type this, Never .........The World needs more clowns.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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