Being Civil with the V Word
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:36 pm
I've had three or four conversations through chat, email, and phone about the drafting of players.
With my many articles railing against 'Value', I get a lot of snark about the word. Understandable.
But in these three or four conversations, we talked about the word at it's best.
Unlike podcasters who use the word once in every five words. Instead of getting better in not using the word, its gotten drastically worse.
Heck, we even say auction 'values' now. And instead of ADP, it's AAV. Puhleeese!
But anyway, back to those conversations....
A fella asked me if I would rather get a player at 'value' or reach for a player. I love the question.
Let's say you're like me and do not trust Chris Sale this year. Sale is being drafted in the bottom of the second or sometimes third round.
At the same time you believe that Yu Darvish is going to be fantastic this year. Darvish is being drafted in the fifth round.
Throughout all your drafts, you have ignored Sale and drafted Darvish in the fourth and fifth rounds. The fourth being a reach, but you wanted a Ace.
Ok, now we come to the Big draft.
The draft is going along and it comes to the fourth round. You are floored. Chris Sale is still there.
According to all accounts.....THIS is VALUE. The word all the experts, writers, and podcasters preach. This is it!
What do you do?
If you are a good drafter and believe in your own methodology and do not get swayed by noise, you would take Darvish.
You have no confidence in Sale. You've said that by bypassing him in every draft.
Now, that he is a 'value' will he pitch any better?
No.
Those 15 drafters in that one draft may be smarter than ADP by the thousands.
If you even thought about taking Sale and living with him for the next six months, you didn't really trust yourself.
You may as well get a wool coat and say 'baaaa' for those six months because you turned into a sheep.
Value focuses on the draft room game. The draft room game is to get as much player as possible for the lowest price.
Unfortunately, most think that 'price' is ADP.
We get confused during drafting season.
We think the most important question is 'Where'.
As in, Where did you draft Chris Sale?'
Tell me, when looking at your roster on the first day of baseball season, do you care 'WHERE' you got any of those players?
Hell no!
The important question is 'WHO'.
When seeing Chris Sale's name on that roster, you may throw up in your mouth a little bit because you made a promise to yourself that Sale was going to end up with Tommy John and to stay far away. Now, you're looking at his name on your big team.
And, you have to look at it for six months....Because of....value
The best part of drafting is when 'value' finds you.
Let's say in that same draft that you bypasses Sale.
But Luis Castillo also fell.
You're not passionate about Castillo but like the thought of getting him in the fourth round.
You want Darvish, but with the way Starters are falling, you decide to take a chance. You draft Castillo and hope that Darvish is available in the fifth.
When he does, you snatch him up.
In essence, you just got a double 'value'.
An unexpected Castillo in the fourth and your guy Darvish in the fifth.
The real value, of course, being established when the season begins.
With my many articles railing against 'Value', I get a lot of snark about the word. Understandable.
But in these three or four conversations, we talked about the word at it's best.
Unlike podcasters who use the word once in every five words. Instead of getting better in not using the word, its gotten drastically worse.
Heck, we even say auction 'values' now. And instead of ADP, it's AAV. Puhleeese!
But anyway, back to those conversations....
A fella asked me if I would rather get a player at 'value' or reach for a player. I love the question.
Let's say you're like me and do not trust Chris Sale this year. Sale is being drafted in the bottom of the second or sometimes third round.
At the same time you believe that Yu Darvish is going to be fantastic this year. Darvish is being drafted in the fifth round.
Throughout all your drafts, you have ignored Sale and drafted Darvish in the fourth and fifth rounds. The fourth being a reach, but you wanted a Ace.
Ok, now we come to the Big draft.
The draft is going along and it comes to the fourth round. You are floored. Chris Sale is still there.
According to all accounts.....THIS is VALUE. The word all the experts, writers, and podcasters preach. This is it!
What do you do?
If you are a good drafter and believe in your own methodology and do not get swayed by noise, you would take Darvish.
You have no confidence in Sale. You've said that by bypassing him in every draft.
Now, that he is a 'value' will he pitch any better?
No.
Those 15 drafters in that one draft may be smarter than ADP by the thousands.
If you even thought about taking Sale and living with him for the next six months, you didn't really trust yourself.
You may as well get a wool coat and say 'baaaa' for those six months because you turned into a sheep.
Value focuses on the draft room game. The draft room game is to get as much player as possible for the lowest price.
Unfortunately, most think that 'price' is ADP.
We get confused during drafting season.
We think the most important question is 'Where'.
As in, Where did you draft Chris Sale?'
Tell me, when looking at your roster on the first day of baseball season, do you care 'WHERE' you got any of those players?
Hell no!
The important question is 'WHO'.
When seeing Chris Sale's name on that roster, you may throw up in your mouth a little bit because you made a promise to yourself that Sale was going to end up with Tommy John and to stay far away. Now, you're looking at his name on your big team.
And, you have to look at it for six months....Because of....value
The best part of drafting is when 'value' finds you.
Let's say in that same draft that you bypasses Sale.
But Luis Castillo also fell.
You're not passionate about Castillo but like the thought of getting him in the fourth round.
You want Darvish, but with the way Starters are falling, you decide to take a chance. You draft Castillo and hope that Darvish is available in the fifth.
When he does, you snatch him up.
In essence, you just got a double 'value'.
An unexpected Castillo in the fourth and your guy Darvish in the fifth.
The real value, of course, being established when the season begins.