R.E.G.R.E.S.S.I.O.N.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Experts crack me up sometimes. Every one of them has one thing in common. And that is that every player has his place.
What do I mean by that?
Well, remember when Mike Trout had baseball by the ass at a young age?
Experts didn't believe anybody could be that good.
Ron Shandler even spouted that Trout was plain normal! Nice one, Ron
When Jose Bautista hit 54 homers, the experts again went crazy. A journeyman from the past hitting 54 homers? OMG.
Experts want to put everybody in their place.

If a player has a better than normal year, we hear this word for the upcoming year.....R.E.G.R.E.S.S.I.O.N.
The word 'regression' does two things for experts.
1. It shows the player who is boss by diminishing him and telling everybody that what they saw is not really that player (see Ron Shandler)
2. It tells everybody who will listen that, yes, they were wrong on this player last year, but this year, they surely will get it right.
That, of course, does not always happen.
When a player has another year above expectations, even the experts fall in line.
They just raise the bar for that player.
And when a player even exceeds that bar? You guessed it...R.E.G.R.E.S.S.I.O.N.

Let's look at some favorite regression candidates this upcoming year...

Pete Alonso-

Alonso is this year's poster boy for experts and regression. How dare he make experts look silly!
Alonso is a Met which gives him an automatic strike one.
No organization enjoys tripping themselves, then laughing at the poor sap who tripped, more than the Mets.
Alonso is one of the few things the Mets have done right.
He could have started last year in the Minors. The Mets could have Bryanted his ass. But they didn't.
He started at the Big level and out-produced everybody's wildest dreams.
And when a player does that? You got it. R.E.G.R.E.S.S.I.O.N.!
In this case, what does Alonso regress TO?
He has no other stats besides last season.
Well, here is what experts do...
They make up in their minds where they THINK Alonso should be. In most cases, 30 home runs.
Then, they do the Steelers Wheel song from yesteryear, 'Stuck in the Middle with You'.
They put that 30 against Alonso's 53 from last year and come up with any number between 35 and 45 homers.
Experts like an average!

How many homers do I think Alonso will hit without using 'Stuck in the Middle with you'?
Around 35.
Yep, mine matches theirs.
My figuring is that the ball may not fly as well as last year. Also, as the year progressed, Alonso made less great contact.
Pitchers started figuring him out better. And I don't give Alonso enough credit to adjust to what pitchers will do to him this year.
Still, he has the power of Kingman.
He's going to run into some home runs. And he has a long leash, even if going all Chris Davis on us.
Would I take him at the bottom of the second or top of the third round where he is going now?
No.

Ketel Marte-

It seems like we've seen Marte's name forever in drafts.
But, he is only going into his age 27 season. Ha! Remember when that was a thing?
From May to September, Marte hit more than .300 every month.
He was consistent while playing over his history's head.
Projections have him for less in every category this year.
I believe he'll have similar numbers.
Regression does not apply.

Jorge Soler-

Every expert is going 'Stuck in the Middle' on Soler.
How dare he hit 49 home runs! In Kansas City, no less!
But you know what?
Soler just needed to stay healthy.
He could always hit.
He's not like Alonso in that he is still a pup.
Experts have him hitting 30-35 homers this year.
Allowing for a NOT return of last years ball, I still think Soler will come close to last year's numbers.
Take that, R.E.G.R.E.S.S.I.O.N. !

Josh Bell-

Another 'Stuck in the Middle with you' regression figure for experts.
Bell hit the crap out of the ball last year.
He changed his swing and had a wonderful year.
I don't think he repeats.
I'm not even going stuck in the middle with him.
I think he goes back to being Josh Bell before last year.
Experts have to give reasons why. I don't.
Of all the first baseman this year, I believe he has the greatest chance to go all Jesus Aguilar on us.

Mitch Garver-

Garver hit the crap outta lefties last year.
12 homers in 106 at bats! A homer every nine at bats. A .321 batting average.
With Jason Castro as the back up, Garver didn't have to face tough righties.
This year, drafters will not have that.
Garver becomes more of a 'regular' catcher. It sounds great, but two bad things happen.
1. Garver faces tougher pitching.
2. Garver is more injury-prone with more time.

Garver only hit .249 vs. righties. His power numbers against them were solid however.
Those, were mostly BAD righties.
I do expect Garver to slide this year.
His drafters will pray for a lefty to pitch every day against the Twins.
Unfortunately, most of that division's best pitchers come from the right side.
I expect Garver to still hit homers.
Just not as many.
And I also expect his other numbers to fall.
In this case, R.E.G.R.E.S.S.I.O.N. IS A BITCH. but has reasoning behind it.
Unlike Bell and unlike the automatic regression experts.