A Marathon To A Mile

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

A Marathon To A Mile

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:38 am

This post will probably come in many parts....

I've been in slow drafts recently. It makes me feel like baseball is right around the corner. In other words, it fools myself. But, I'd rather be fooled for a time than face the reality that is the world right now.
Anyway, I've noticed an amusing and strange phenomenon in these last few drafts.
Drafters are drafting for a shorter season. And like me fooling myself, they believe that a shorter season will have better results for some.
Let's talk about pitching in this post.

These drafters are zooming some pitchers like Jesus Luzardo, Nate Pearson,Julio Urias, and Tyler Glasnow up the charts.
The belief is that with a shortened season that these pitchers will throw as many innings as any other pitchers.
One drafter even called these pitchers 'perfect short season pitchers'.
On the surface, it may even sound true.

I love Jesus Luzardo. I drafted him a few times earlier in the draft season. When I felt his price wasn't exorbitant. At the start of the draft season, each drafter knew that his innings would be limited. Keeping his price reasonable.
Spring Training saw his price rise.
Thad increased his price even more til recently, he was taken in the fifth round. Fifth!
The problem with all this is that Luzardo has never proved health.
The very reason why he was not going to throw many innings this year.
Drafters figure with a shortened season, Luzardo increases his chances to pitch more innings.
Percentage wise, they're correct.
Luzardo though, has only thrown over 60 innings once in his professional life. Once.
He has never thrown 120 innings.
I love the guys arm. Love it.
But even with a shortened season, I don't expect him to be throwing 'real' innings near the end of any season, short or long.

After Nate Pearson blew hitters away in Spring Training, his stock started to rise.
I don't really know why.
It's well known that Pearson has a great arm.
I guess 'Seeing is believing' upped his ranking.
The short season also increased his roundage.
Now going in the teens, when before, he went as late as rounds starting with a '3'.
Realistically, Toronto is not going to use Pearson much at the big level.
Drafters can dream and even pay more for the privilege of that dream.
But Pearson is no closer to throwing meaningful innings this year for Toronto than before Spring Training.

Other pitchers like Urias, Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Michael Kopech, Griffin Canning, Dustin May, or virtually all younger pitchers with limited innings or a bad health background are seeing a rise to their ADP.
I understand the thought process. I do.
But players are players and teams are teams.
These pitchers are still more than likely to have their innings limited. By injury to themselves or by their teams limiting their innings, even in a shortened season.
Sure, the season has gone from a marathon to a mile race or maybe even to a sprint.
And if it's a sprint, teams will look at it as a relay race.
I can see these type of Starters throwing three or four innings before handing the baton to a reliever.
Partly because of circumstances of the sprint season and partly because teams are still going to protect these precious arms.

Helped by the timing of Thad are the pitchers who had a wonky Spring Training.
James Paxton, Miles Mikolas, and Mike Clevinger leap to mind.
Paxton is still Paxton.
One injury seems to lead to another.
His drafters dodged a bullet.
But their may be more behind that one.
Mikolas has all the earmarks of Tommy John around the corner.
Most in his condition end up with TJS.
Tanaka beat it at an advanced age. Maybe Mikolas can do the same.
Clevinger could be the biggest beneficiary of Thad.
Clevinger dropped to the fifth round after his injury.
Now, with Thad shortening the season and increasing time for Clevinger to recover, he has returned to the second round.

I can't wait for the season to begin.We will have two weeks of Main Event drafts leading up to that new Opening Day.
The reckoning will be changed.
The season will be shorter.
We will make minor adjustments accounting for fewer games.
Among those adjustments will be the attrition of Aces.
Spring Training drove Luis Severino, Chris Sale, and Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John.
It will increase the roundage of other pitchers, some not even considered Aces like Sonny Gray and Brandon Woodruff.
Some now, are putting Jesus Luzardo and others like Luzardo near to that group. I believe it is a mistake.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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