Stuff

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Stuff

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 06, 2020 10:57 am

Did stolen bases dry up in 2019?
Yes.
For the first time since 1972, there was NOT an average of a stolen base a game.
Before Babe Ruth and the live ball, games averaged more than two stolen bases per game.
Is last years pace of stolen bases record breaking?
No.
During the 1950's, there was little interest in stealing bases.
The average for a stolen base was close to one every TWO games.

In 1920, batters struck out over 7,000 times
In 1934, over 8,000 times
In 1937, over 9,000 times
It wasn't till 1952 that it would reach 10,000 strike outs.
1960 saw 12,000 strike outs
1969 broke the 20,000 barrier.
Through the 70's, 80's and half of the 90's, strike outs stayed between 20,000 and 27,000 strike outs.
The steroid era changed that.
Over 30,000 strike outs became the norm.
Now, we are on a strike out streak.
Strike outs have risen 15 straight years.
In 2017, the 40,000 mark was broken with 40,104 K's.
2018, 41,207
2019, 42,823
If increasing by the same amount over the next full year, it will be the first time in baseball history, that teams will average striking out nine times per game. Or once per inning.

Were there more home runs last year?
Yes.
When Babe Ruth hit 60 homers in 1927, it was a treat for fans.
That year, those fans saw an average of less than a homer per game. Even with the Babe's stats.
In fact, fans couldn't expect a homer per game until integration in 1947.
40 Years later in 1987, two homers a game were produced.
In 2017, 2 1/2 homers per game.
Now, close to three per game.

Are we scoring more runs?
Not really.
With a couple of exceptions during the steroid era, teams have been scoring an average of four to five runs a game since the 1970's.
You would think the home runs increase would change run output, but it hasn't.
Why?
Because with the rise of home runs comes the rise of SOLO home runs.
It has replaced the 'rally'.
1930 was the best hitters year in baseball.
Players AVERAGED hitting .296
1930 set a record for most homers too, but it was the paltry sum of just over one homer a game.
Rallies, along with the increase in homers delighted fans with over 11 runs scored per game.

Has Sabremetrics and their love for the OBP changed our game in that way?
No.
At least, if looking for increases or decreases.
Since 2010, OBP has never seen a year under .314 or a year over .325
OBP has been a constant.
1968, the 'Year of the Pitcher', OBP fell to .299
Since then, it has remained between .300 and .345

We saw 785 triples last year.
The least in any full season since 1972.
The triple is dying.
Many factors play into this.
Singles hitters in baseball have all but evaporated. For singles hitters, a triple was their 'home run'.
Ball parks are bringing fences in. Less space in the outfield means that fielders get to the ball quicker.
And worse, the modern player admires most balls struck deeply.
This takes vital seconds when realizing the ball stayed in the park.
Most modern players are more than happy to 'settle' for a double rather than hustle out a triple.

1930 changed one other thing. The Sacrifice.
1930 was the last year that fans would see two sacrifices per game.
With hitting so easy, why sacrifice an out?
Sabermetricains feel much the same way.
Here is where they have had an impact.
We hardly see a sacrifice any longer.
In 2019, teams sacrificed an average of once every six games. A record low.
Sacrifices are as seldom seen as a triple.
There were 776 Sacrifices, 785 triples.

The 1960's was 'The Golden Era' of baseball.
Mays, Aaron, Robinson. Kaline, Carew, Brock, Banks, McCovey, Mantle,,,the list goes on.
Until this era, pitchers were more than happy to face each batter except maybe a Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, or Williams.
During the Golden Era, Intentional Base on Balls set records.
It would be the first time we would see more than 1,000 Intentional Walks in a year.
This practice would continue until our modern day.
That is until pitchers (and Managers) figured out that these players had home run fever and little else.
In 2014, we saw less intentional walks since the 1960's. Less than 1,000.
They've been headed south since.
Last year, only 753 Intentional Walks were given.
That's right, for the first time in this century, we saw less Intentional Walks than Triples or Sacrifices.
Individually, four players led the league with 10 triples.
Three played at the same venue, Merrifield, Escobar, and Dozier with Eduardo Escobar also reaching that total with Arizona.
Clayton Kershaw led baseball with 15 Sacrifices.
And Cody Bellinger was Intentionally Walked 21 times.
Which brings a smile to my face in knowing that Batting Champion, Tim Anderson walked 15 times all year.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

JohnP
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Re: Stuff

Post by JohnP » Fri May 08, 2020 5:20 am

Interesting stats Dan. Amazing progression on the strikeouts. I love the triple. I remember watching Robin Yount hit an amazing about of triples. Like you said it is a hustle play. Not may players bust it out of the box anymore. Willie Wilson is another that has to be pretty high on the list for triples. Give us a triple leader board!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Stuff

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri May 08, 2020 10:26 am

Good eye, John!
I'd give you the All-Time list for triples, but it's pretty boring. The top 50 is comprised of old players. The two most recent being Stan Musial and Roberto Clemente.
The good eye comes with Willie Wilson representing the more modern player in being number 56 on the list.

Ever heard of Chief Wilson? Most haven't.
Wilson was not an Indian. He got his nickname because being from Texas, his Manager and teammates thought he would resemble a 'Chief' of the Texas Rangers.
Wilson set the third longest standing seasonal baseball record in 1912 (Lajoie .426 batting average, Jack Chesbro 41 Wins).
He got zero glory for setting the record because record books back then erroneously had Lajoie with a better all time mark.
Wilson hit 36 triples. At the time, Lajoie was somehoe credited with 44 in a year when only hitting 11. Who knew?
Sadly, only 20 active players in baseball have 36 triples in their careers.
Dexter Fowler has 82 triples to lead active players.
Only two active players, age 27 or less have even 30 triples. Mike Trout, 46 and Nick Castellanos has 32 triples.

The triple has become a pipe dream for some players.
Albert Pujols hasn't hit a triple since 2014. THAT, was his only triple in an Angels uniform. He only has two triples this decade!
Roberto Clemente hit three in one game.
Pujols has 16 triples in his career. Less than a triple a year!

Miguel Cabrera has gone three years without a triple.

Only five teams had more triples in 2019 than Chief Wilson's 36 triples.

In 2013 and 2014, while trying to 'make his bones', Yasiel Puig hit 11 triples.
During his last stints with the Dodgers, Indians, and Reds, he has hit one triple for each team.
Puig has the ability to be a triples machine. Instead, an admirer of his own work who settles for doubles.

Edit-
The triple has gone through a metamorphisis.
It still is a speed stat.
At the same time, it's also a hustle stat.
As noted, Puig has speed, but never thinks 'triple' when leaving the batters box.
On the other hand, the much slower Jose Abreu does not admire well struck balls.
He busts it out of the box.
In 2017, he had a phenomenal six triples with a home ball park that is not conducive to triples.
Aside from speed, style of play has become the impetus for triples.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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