Dylan Carlson

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Dylan Carlson

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu May 14, 2020 8:44 am

Last night, I selected Dylan Carlson in the 15th round of a Draft Champions.
Two questions just popped up in your minds.

1. Why the Hell is he drafting?

2. Why is he taking Carlson so early?

I'm drafting because I miss baseball. Badly.
I know that I'm probably drafting for nothing. Each day that goes by brings us closer to that realization.
Drafting keeps me occupied in a baseball sense.
It offers hope to my heart.
Even though my brain has already raised the white flag.

I'm drafting Carlson for many reasons.
If there is a season, it won't be like any other seasons.
Kids get to be a part of the fun straight away.
No minor league ball means that these kids become an accepted part of the big team.
Talent-wise, players like Carlson are already better than his counterparts.
But tradition and contract reckonings betray outright talent when it comes to making the Big Club.

Everything points to succeeding for Carlson. The Cardinals do not have a wonderful outfield. Rather, a lot of pieces who have NOT shined for them.
Dexter Fowler
Tyler O'Neill
Harrison Bader
None of these players are thoughts till rounds of 20 or more in drafts. None have exemplified themselves in St. Louis.
Heck, I may talk myself into Lane Thomas too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Every thing that has happened this loooonnnnnggggg off season has benefited Carlson.
He can't be sent down to the minors.
He doesn't have to stay in the minors before being called up.
Goldschmidt is rumored to have a shoulder worse than St. Louis lets on.
He shined in the 'first spring training'.
He skips playing in the cold of March and April.
And now, National League DH's.
I feel good about drafting him.
If you haven't been drafting in quite awhile, he is one of the few players whose ADP is changing rapidly.
Likewise, Hilliard and Pearson are marching up too.

It feels good to talk about players again.
Like drafting, it fools us into believing that a season can be accomplished.
I hope so.
I'd really like to know if I'm right about Dylan Carlson.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bronx Yankees
Posts: 1238
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 6:16 pm

Re: Dylan Carlson

Post by Bronx Yankees » Thu May 14, 2020 12:28 pm

Well, I certainly understand why you're still drafting! Man, life without sports is just not as much fun. In a normal May, I can't even imagine how much time I spend thinking (obsessing?) about baseball and my fantasy baseball teams, although I'm sure it would horrify the rest of my family if they knew exactly how much. You never realize how much you miss something until it gets taken away from you, I guess.

Interesting post re Dylan Carlson. I agree with everything you said about how this delay only improves things for him, and how the rest of the Cardinals' outfield leaves much to be desired. I agree that, given the shortened season, the universal DH, and his strong skills, Carlson is a good bet to play regularly from Game 1 (assuming we get a Game 1).

That said, I have not been drafting Carlson so far. It is nothing against him; it is simply that someone always seems to want him more (or earlier) than I do. I think this is a characteristic of "my game" although I'm not sure if it is a strength or a weakness. I seem to have more hesitation pulling the trigger on a rookie/prospect that I have not gotten to see play regularly. I've seen a few highlights of Carlson, and I certainly have read up on him. He seems like a strong prospect. But, 15th round is not an inconsequential pick. Just curious how you rank someone you haven't seen versus more predictable commodities. Is it just based on projections? Gut feel?

In the last month, some OF going in Round 15 include Bryan Anderson, Joc Pederson, Shin-Soo Choo, and Andrew McCutchen. Do you like Carlson more than all of those guys? I guess I need to see Carlson succeed against MLB pitching over some period of time. I was fortunate enough to own a lot of shares of Choo last season, and already have a fair amount so far this season. Last year, he hit 24/93/61/15/.265. Yeah, he's another year older, but his 2019 line doesn't look THAT different from that of Laureano (24/79/67/13/.288) going ten rounds earlier. (Don't get me wrong, I'll take Laureano over Choo seven days a week, and I'll take the "under" in terms of Choo in 2020 v 2019.) Pederson hit 36 bombs last year. McCutchen is a former MVP who should hit lead-off again and was on a 120 run pace last season before getting hurt on a freak play. These are decent options to be passing up for a rookie prospect.

I realize my reticence to draft prospects aggressively can be harmful to success (but maybe helpful to success in as many if not more situations). Of course, each prospect has an appropriate price. I'd take Louie Bob, for instance, well before Round 15, and I've never seen him face MLB pitching either, so I'm not even being consistent in my approach. I also have Carlson on one team, although I vaguely recall the cost being much less (this was much earlier in this extended drafting season). Just curious how you, generally, rank prospects that you've never seen play or never seen hit or pitch in the majors over any extended period of time over more predictable veteran players. Thanks.
Mike Mager
"Bronx Yankees"

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Dylan Carlson

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu May 14, 2020 2:26 pm

Thanks for the post, Mike.
It allows me a rant. :D
A year ago I called the Phillies 4-year 50 million dollar deal with McCutchen, a big waste of money.
McCutchen's greatest skill, from what I have heard, is tweeting and being good with his computer.
Unfortunately, the Phillies don't need another PR guy.
McCutchen will be 34 this year and plays (when he plays) older.
I would not select him in the 15th round. Or 16th...Or 17th...Or

Pederson is a trick pony. He hits right handers and does not hit lefties. The Dodgers traded him, then brought him back.
I don't know what that does to a players head. But just the same, Pederson thrived on the live ball and it's not talked about much now, but we may not have that same ball back. His power game is the only help to fantasy players and Grichuk, Renfroe, and other power hitters are available even later.

Shoo also has handedness problems. He sits a lot vs. southpaws.
Sometimes, platooners drive me crazy. I'll bench one against two lefties in a series, only to see him come off the bench and do damage, then rip the only righty in the series.

Anderson is more taken as a 3B more than an outfielder, but even so, I'd rather have Carlson.
Anderson will be in a damned sad lineup in a damned sad park against a very good division of pitching.

All of these players miss something that Carlson possesses. Speed.
While it's true that these players are more established and can be counted on (take one step back, Mr McCutchen), I would take my chances with Carlson.
The 15th pick is certainly not a throwaway pick, but it's also not a do or die round.
Unlike Louie Bob in the fourth or fifth round that I find almost abhorrent. But that's just me.

I loved Carlson during Spring Training and I believe that forces are happening for him to be an everyday player from the get-go.
As said, his competition isn't much and Goldschmidt may be the quiet Aaron Judge in terms of injury.
I would love to see the outcome, Mike!
I know you would too. :D
Thanks again for the post!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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