Anatomy of a Draft

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12821
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Anatomy of a Draft

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:19 am

Opening Day was a week ago. My draft for the Main Event was the night before. Its been long enough where we can talk about a draft in context of the draft itself and the play that has occurred since,
You folks know my hated of the words 'value pick'.
Tell me, if Acuna or Yelich had dropped to the sixth spot in a draft, do you think their drafters are saying 'value pick;' right now?
Yelich has looked absolutely putrid at the plate and I believe that Acuna is struggling with not being amped by a crowd.
But, my point is that we get so caught up in ADP that to NOT take Acuna or Yelich with the first pick seems....just wrong.
It shouldn't be that way. But it is.

Ok, enough of my little rant. I drafted one Main Event team. I wasn't too sure in how to approach a mini-season, so I didn't invest a lot.
For this draft, I had no plan.
Zero.
I got stuck with the 13th pick in a draft with a couple of Hall of Famers and many multi winners of Main Events. My opponents know what they are doing, so instead of pinpointing players or positionally draft, I decided to just draft based on what these good drafters would let me have.
I surprised myself.
Here is the way it went....

I thought I was going to get Mike Trout. I didn't understand it. Trout had said he was going to play the season out. I guess my draftmates didn't believe him or thought he may change his mind once the baby came. Anyway, Trout fell and he fell hard.
At pick 13 and with pick 12 on the clock, I knew I was either taking Trout or Trevor Story.
Previously, I was hoping for Juan Soto, but news came out earlier in the day that Soto had a few too many Corona's. Dropping him a lot.
Pick 12 took Trout.
I took Story. I was ok with that. Trout doesn't seem as interested in stealing bases as he once did and both have power to spare.

It is here that I should mention that by the time it got back to me for my second pick, seven Starters had gone off the Boards.
A sure sign that my draftmates were going to overdraft pitchers during the first few rounds. When near a corner in a draft, we have to think about such things. I gave Alex Bregman a small thought, but knew that I would kick myself if not getting a Starter here and maybe add to the tide of Starters to come.
I took Steven Strasburg.
And as expected, eight more pitchers would be selected before my third pick.

My third and fourth picks were the turning points in the draft for me. For different reasons.
I was wide open to taking the best possible player. And did.
Unfortunately, I can't play him.
I took the guy I originally intended to pick in the first round, Juan Soto.
Yep, a week into the draft, and I have not gotten to see my second or third round picks play yet.
I love this hobby!

Immediately, I knew that my fourth pick would come down to two players. Anthony Rendon and Luis Robert.
I hoped that somebody would draft Rendon so as not to leave me with a decision. I dislike Rendon for personal reasons.
But, as a fantasy player, we try to put aside those thoughts. And there is no way with a small injury, even in a shortened season, that Rendon should be available.
I hadn't taken Robert in one DC draft of the over 20 DC's I did.
And having drafted against some of these fellas in DC's, I knew that one draft mate had a hard-on for Robert and would select him in the same round.
When we draft players, we use three sources.
Our head. Our heart. Our intuition.
The head has the info.
The heart has the emotion.
The intuition is the wild card.
For me, Robert was 100 % intuition.
Neither were selected when my turn. I used the whole clock. The determining factor was that I did not want to start the season without playing my second, third and fourth picks. That wouldn't be much fun.
I took Robert.

I reversed my fifth and sixth picks.
With pitchers going off the draft board at an alarming rate, I over drafted Ken Giles. Smart, eh?
Oh well, the things we don't know at the time.
My sixth pick was Matt Olson.
With pitchers going everywhere, offense was falling at an alarming rate and I liked picking up what was falling.
Olson will be a powerful cornerstone at first base.
That trend continued with my seventh and eighth picks.
I took Mike Moustakas and DJ Lemahieu.
One idea in entering the draft is that these players having too many Corona's makes players with positionality more special.
And besides, I had drafted Lemahieu in DC's at a heftier price.
Both of these players give me positionality and a lot of offensive numbers.

At nine and ten, I admit I went with positional tendencies. Pitchers are just now starting to lessen on the Draft Board and I wanted to grab a second Closer before none were available to me. I took Mark Melancon.
Melancon is always available late because he doesn't blow batters away. Drafters seem to like fireballing Closers. I just want a Closer who gets Saves.
11 of the 15 players selected in round nine were pitchers. Crazy stuff.
Still not seeing a Starter at what I felt was a good price, with these guys overbuying, I drafted Yasmani Grandal with the 10th pick.
In my mind, Grandal should be the second Catcher selected after Realmuto, I could not pass on him.
With positionality a thought with Corona, I'm already thinking I may take three Catchers if everything breaks right.

Some of my friends tell me I'm 'Ballsy' for not drafting another Starting Pitcher after Strasburg. I understand their angst, but I never had a Starter that I liked even be in the conversation when reckoning who to select. Pitchers were so overdrafted in my mind, that offense was the way to go.
I hated drafting Giles as high as I did and look how that turned out for me.
It wasn't till now that other drafters were shoring up their own offenses that I could grab Starters I liked at a price I was comfortable with.
And that's exactly what I did.
In the 11th and 12th rounds, I took Max Fried and Mike Minor.
In the 13th and 14th rounds, I took Garrett Richards and Dylan Bundy.
I've been drafting Bundy a lot in DC's and believe away from Baltimore, he'll realize his full potential.
And after taking Joc Pederson in the 15th, I selected Dylan Cease in the 16th.
All of these pitchers have a chance to be better than average.
Since my draft is offense oriented, better than average would work for me!

The rest of the draft is a little dull. I focused on keeping up positionality. If pinpointing any player in this draft, it was David Fletcher. Fletcher is one of the best PITA's in baseball (PITA- Pain In the Ass). He can play anywhere and lead off. In a pandemic, a player I wanted and drafted in the 20th round. I also selected those three Catchers.
My draft mates didn't seem to care too much for the position and waited a long time to draft their Catchers.
Anyway, this is the way my team looked in the end with an optimal lineup...

C- Grandal
C- Caratini
1B- Olson
2B- Lemahieu
3B- Moustakas
SS- Story
MI- Fletcher
CI- Pederson
OF- Soto
OF- Robert
OF- Renfroe
OF- KCalhoun
OF- Santander
U- LaStella

P- Strasburg
P- Fried
P- Minor
P- Richards
P- Bundy
P- Cease
P- Keuchel
CL- Giles
CL- Melancon

BN- Dyson
BN- Chirinos
BN- Gordon
BN- Kipnis
BN- Newcomb
BN- A Mills
BN- Alvarado
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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