NFBC Message Boards

Drafting season is here.
I believe in the future (hopefully the not too distant future) that a draft room will be open as each baseball season concludes.
Six months of baseball. Six months of drafting.

The PreMature Draft is going on now. We draft by Google sheets and email. It works.
I love the process.
Every year, we spank those that under perform or get hurt.
Just as we give upper round status to those that over perform.
Recency bias is never so apparent as it is with a draft that starts as baseball season concludes.

I drafted Zach Plesac in the 22nd round last year.
He was an untested Starter that had good genetics and moxie on the mound.
This year, he was drafted in the fifth round of the PreMature.
He, most likely, over performed a bit while losing his moxie a lot by breaking Covid rules.
How will he perform next year?
I'm guessing somewhere between fifth and 22nd round numbers.
It'd be hard to tell that drafter that he will be better than fifth round numbers.

Recency bias has also dropped Pete Alonso and seen Luke Voit rise.
It seems like every year, we have a home run leader 'come from nowhere'.
This year, it's Voit.
He'll be drafted like Alonso was last year.
Are his numbers sustainable?
Maybe.
He has the benefit of a better lineup and park than Alonso.
At the same time, there is that stupid R word.
Regression.
I have a feeling we would have seen a long slump from Voit had the season been six months long.
But, my 'feeling' doesn't mean crap.
Voit won the HR title.
That is all drafters will see.

I'll have more about the PreMature soon....

Thanks for reading my Stuff here. You should get something for putting up with me here.

Here are the first six rounds of the PreMature League....

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

Round 3

1. Zac Gallen
2. Jose Abreu
3. Tim Anderson
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Whit Merrifield
7. Luis Castillo
8. Adalberto Mondesi
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Luis Robert
12. Kyle Tucker
13. JT Realmuto
14. Anthony Rendon
15. Marcell Ozuna

Round 4

1. Brandon Woodruff
2. Eloy Jimenez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Rafael Devers
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Starling Marte
8. Luke Voit
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Cavan Biggio
11. Eric Hosmer
12. Blake Snell
13. Keston Hiura
14. Teoscar Hernandez
15. George Springer

Round 5

1. Jesus Luzardo
2/ Max Fried
3. Dinelson Lamet
4. Michael Conforto
5. Zach Plesac
6. Stephen Strasburg
7. Austin Meadows
8. Sonny Gray
9. Brandon Lowe
10. Corbin Burnes
11. Mike Clevinger
12. Jeff McNeil
13. Hyun-Jin Ryu
14. Sixto Sanchez
15. Josh Hader

Round 6

1. Lance Lynn
2. Liam Hendriks
3. Carlos Carrasco
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Javy Baez
6. Pete Alonso
7. Dominic Smith
8. Jose Berrios
9. Chris Paddack
10. Yoan Moncada
11. Sal Perez
12. Dylan Bundy
13. Mike Yastrzemski
14. Charlie Blackmon
15. Matt Olson

Hi Dan. Always interesting to see the Premature results each year, to get our thoughts racing as to "Wow" he went there, or "why would a drafter do that". At any rate I just came off Mikey's first fast draft yesterday. Mike's are the only ones I will go in because they are usually done in 48 hours or less. I'm an auction guy, but if it is fast, then I also like to draft. Our first round was reasonably similar to the Premature, although Trout only went # 9. And I actually believe his ADP this year will be around 7-10. Same 3 starters but also Darvish slipped into the 1st round. Acuna # 1. Gerrit Cole # 2. Mookie # 3. As I write this, maybe it was different than the Premature league. I believe this year, there will be 10 different players going # 1 in various drafts. What I predict is that all the following will get some support as # 1 overall. Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and your favorite, Trea Turner. Add Jacob DeGrom, Gerritt Cole and Shane Bieber. I have been in the NFBC 5 years, so you have more knowledge, but I bet this has NEVER happened before. You could easily draw # 12 and get a player that has gone # 1 before. This years drafts and auctions will not be nearly as predictable as other years. Agree or disagree ??

Thurman15 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:51 am

Hi Dan. Always interesting to see the Premature results each year, to get our thoughts racing as to "Wow" he went there, or "why would a drafter do that". At any rate I just came off Mikey's first fast draft yesterday. Mike's are the only ones I will go in because they are usually done in 48 hours or less. I'm an auction guy, but if it is fast, then I also like to draft. Our first round was reasonably similar to the Premature, although Trout only went # 9. And I actually believe his ADP this year will be around 7-10. Same 3 starters but also Darvish slipped into the 1st round. Acuna # 1. Gerrit Cole # 2. Mookie # 3. As I write this, maybe it was different than the Premature league. I believe this year, there will be 10 different players going # 1 in various drafts. What I predict is that all the following will get some support as # 1 overall. Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and your favorite, Trea Turner. Add Jacob DeGrom, Gerritt Cole and Shane Bieber. I have been in the NFBC 5 years, so you have more knowledge, but I bet this has NEVER happened before. You could easily draw # 12 and get a player that has gone # 1 before. This years drafts and auctions will not be nearly as predictable as other years. Agree or disagree ??

Hi Al,
First, let me clear up something.
I was WRONG about Trea Turner. Wrong Wrong Wrong.
I've stated that, but I'll state it again. Some drafters were disappointed that he didn't steal more bases in 2020.
C'mon Man. The guy was great. Much greater than in the past.
Simply put, he's converted me. I'm a fan.

It's funny how drafts have changed over the years. There always seemed to be one or two names at the top.
Griffey or Puckett.
Pujols or ARod.
Trout or the player coming off a hot year.
Since then, it has changed. There hasn't been a dominant presence since Trout went from a five category player, to a four and a half category player, to a four category player.
You're right.
Several players can be the number one pick.
But I'm guessing that number one will be dominated by just two players.
Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts.
Especially when it comes to the big drafts.
Like you said, other players will be selected number one, but not as often as these two.
The three pitchers will always go in the first round and see the number one spot.

Tatis Jr. will have the stigma that 2020 was perfect for him.
He has only played over 100 games in a season once in his five professional years.
A 60 game schedule is swell. We've yet to see if he can stand the long game.

Soto has shown enough to be a number one pick.
But look at his splits over the two months.
He was constantly walked with teams knowing he had no protection.
I owned a lot of him last year and went through Joey Votto syndrome all over again with the walks.

Ramirez, most likely loses Lindor as a teammate. That will not help him.

I've talked about Turner....

But above all those mentioned, Trout is the one that interests me most.
I believe that he has been passed by Acuna Jr. and Betts on his own volition. He stopped running.
Every other part of his game is still spot on.
But, we're greedy. We want five category goodness.
According to Statcast, Trout is still damned fast.
The question becomes, will he go back to stealing bases or won't he?
In my mind, number nine got a bargain in your draft.

I believe 2021 drafters are going to need more luck than the 'Sprinters' from 2020.
We'll have so little information to draw from in doing research.
60 games is a glimpse. A third of a regular season.
We have to trust any player drafted to do it for the long haul.
There will be a lot of offensive mirages drafted.
And worse, there will be more pitching injuries or shortened innings because of 2020.
Good fantasy pitching staffs, I believe, will be made more from luck than skill.

If fantasy baseball had a name for a year like the Chinese, I would call 2021, 'the year of the Guppy'.
With more luck than ever involved in the coming year, the sharks have their work cut out for them.
No minor league results.
Sparse results from some kids who did get to play.
Starters go into 2021, all of them, with less than 100 innings thrown the year before.
Most teams do not have Closers or use a committee approach.
An overall shortened season and elongated playoffs have made Mike Trout an after thought and Randy Arozarena a Star.
What a 'year'!
And by year, I really mean, two months.

For those drafting DC's, I believe the second half of the draft becomes more important for winners.
For those in the Main Event and other FAAB drafts, in-season management will be almost as important as the drafts themselves.
I believe kids will be called up from the minors a little more hurriedly than in the past.
Especially for contenders.
A 'Smoke 'em if you got 'em' approach.
It should prove to lead to an interesting season.
And not even mentioned is Covid.
There are no guarantees (unless believing politicians) that the pandemic will be over in March.
That may also come to change a lot of ideas that we have now.
The word, 'Difficult' only begins to describe 2021 for drafters

Good points Dan, especially what to expect from young players who had no minor league stats to help analyze. And while I agree that Acuna and Betts will receive the most first picks, I still see several others getting a decent share. I had 4th pick and chose Juan Soto, but I was picking Soto even if I had first pick. You are a Soto believer so I don't need to explain. But lets use Jose Ramirez and make an argument he is better than Acuna. It is an easy argument, not a stretch. I consider them equal. Ramirez hit more home runs, stole more bases, and had much better control of the strike zone. Acuna prorated would have roughly equal home runs and stolen bases, but Acuna strikes out. A lot. Ramirez does not. Acuna was not far off 40-40 last year. Ramirez had a better year in his big season the year before. Take a look at the extra base hits. The strikeouts, the average, the stolen base percentage. But Acuna is younger, which counts, so I totally understand picking him first. I'm just saying that even experienced baseball people likely underrate Jose Ramirez. I could also argue Fernando Tatis for # 1. Would I pick him ? No. But I would consider him and Acuna pretty even. Next point is although you and I would not.....I bet Mike Trout goes # 1 a fair bit. As you mentioned, it comes down to will he run again. We don't know. But if he does not, then he is not top 5 in my opinion. And there will be the odd person taking Degrom, Bieber or Cole first. Not many, but it will happen. The drafts will be exciting because MLB has so many elite hitters now. Keep the posts coming Dan, because they are very interesting.

Thurman15 wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:07 am

Good points Dan, especially what to expect from young players who had no minor league stats to help analyze. And while I agree that Acuna and Betts will receive the most first picks, I still see several others getting a decent share. I had 4th pick and chose Juan Soto, but I was picking Soto even if I had first pick. You are a Soto believer so I don't need to explain. But lets use Jose Ramirez and make an argument he is better than Acuna. It is an easy argument, not a stretch. I consider them equal. Ramirez hit more home runs, stole more bases, and had much better control of the strike zone. Acuna prorated would have roughly equal home runs and stolen bases, but Acuna strikes out. A lot. Ramirez does not. Acuna was not far off 40-40 last year. Ramirez had a better year in his big season the year before. Take a look at the extra base hits. The strikeouts, the average, the stolen base percentage. But Acuna is younger, which counts, so I totally understand picking him first. I'm just saying that even experienced baseball people likely underrate Jose Ramirez. I could also argue Fernando Tatis for # 1. Would I pick him ? No. But I would consider him and Acuna pretty even. Next point is although you and I would not.....I bet Mike Trout goes # 1 a fair bit. As you mentioned, it comes down to will he run again. We don't know. But if he does not, then he is not top 5 in my opinion. And there will be the odd person taking Degrom, Bieber or Cole first. Not many, but it will happen. The drafts will be exciting because MLB has so many elite hitters now. Keep the posts coming Dan, because they are very interesting.

Great post, Al.
The major difference between Acuna and Ramirez is simply this...
Ramirez has failed.
He had a disappointing year in 2019 when he was being taken third and fourth overall in drafts.
Drafters don't forget.
Acuna has never failed.
Acuna is the red Corvette on the sales lot.
Ramirez, the blue Corvette in the garage that had a tranny replaced at an inopportune time, but still runs like a top.

I agree that all of them will go number one in one draft or another.
Acuna and Betts leading the way.
The real question is which player returns number one value?
Of the players mentioned, I believe least in Tatis.
It's not a Missouri/Missouri thing where he has to 'show me' twice.
I believe in the skills. Definitely number one Overall skills.
He has to show me that he can play a full 162 game season. A skill that all the others have shown already.
The number one pick has to be a base. Somebody to count on.
Tatis is on the cover of 'The Forecaster' this year.
I don't know if this'll inspire folks to draft him or stay away because Frankie Lindor didn't have a great year when he graced the cover last year.

Oh, and speaking of the Forecaster...
You brought up the striking out for Acuna.
The Forecaster cares about striking out. Believing it's a weakness.
And it was....when the Forecaster was young.
The game has changed.
Everybody strikes out...alot.
There was a time last year when Tatis was near the the top of home run hitters and led the league in stolen bases.
His owners could care less that he also led baseball in striking out at the time.
Having more walks than K's now means a player isn't trying!
It used to mean great strike zone and bat control like DiMaggio or Pujols.
We live in a different age.
Carlos Santana walked more than he struck out last year. He was horrible.
Sabrs love him.
They live in the past where they endorse the walk and .OBP
They really should watch the game.
If OBP were important to hitters and teams, we would see hitters dropping balls to third base with a shift on.
They don't.
Instead, teams want their players to flail and pull the ball and play into their hitters strengths.
Is this the right thing to do?
Not necessarily.

Josh Bell was horrible last year. If any player should have been taking first base with a push bunt down the line, it would be Bell.
As is, Bell has pulled 127 ground balls over the last two years.
A good year in 2019 for Bell and bad year last year.
Over those two years and 127 ground balls, only 12 went for hits. An .094 batting average on pulled ground balls.
If adding the 177 strike outs from the two years, Bell has pulled grounders or struck out in over 42% of his plate at bats.
That does not leave much leeway in him having another great year.

Teams are changing hitters approach. The level swing is out. Trajectory is in.
Teams don't want ground balls. Not these days, with shifts.
They also don't want their players breaking from the norm and beating the shift with a bunt.
They're choosing to go over the shift.
It sounds good.
But pitchers are throwing more and more sinkers and getting more low strikes called by umpires.
It's no wonder we see a lot of strike outs with those forces colliding!

Ah crap...there I go again.
Talking about first round picks and going off on a tangent on modern batting theory.
Sorry bout that, Al.
I'll try to stay on point next time!

More on early drafting. There is an NFBC draft going on ( I am not in it) but Trout went first, then Soto. Acuna- Betts were 3-4. Not that you are arguing Dan, but it reinforces my belief that several players will see the top spot, and that getting a later 1st round pick may not be so disappointing.

Blake Snell - I believe that Cash's decision will have a huge impact on drafting. Here is my reason. Every early drafter has a list That decision alone drops Snell quite a bit. It illustrates that it will be difficult for him to gets wins, and his ERA will matter less because he won't throw as many innings. For me, I had him ranked as roughly the 9-10 starting pitcher. I'm disgusted with Cash, so Snell just dropped to 15-17 on my list. Same with Glasnow.
I also believe that people giving Tampa all the praise for the way they run their team are not realizing the damage they are doing. BTW I am a BIG believer in analytics, but I'm not a robot. Do you think good starting pitchers will sign with Tampa ? No way. They have no desire to be limited like Tampa does. Do you think good hitters will sign with Tampa. No way will they risk being platooned when other teams will play them full time.
Do you think Snell, Glasnow etc will resign ? No way. Although they have been successful, it will become much tougher if they continue down this path. They won't ALWAYS be able to draft pitchers and hitters who turn into stars. If they have a down year in drafting (every team does) they are in trouble. Returning to the drafting, I just took Manny Margot, but on second thought, I'm dropping all Tampa hitters down a couple of rounds because we can not trust the Rays to use full time players. It won't help attendance either. So drafting is going to be affected, mostly for pitchers, but also for hitters. This may be a contradictory statement but here it is.....I LOVE analytics but I HATE the way the Rays run their team. Whether you agree or not, I hope you at least understand my point.

Al, you are spot on about many players being number one in one draft or another.
Mike Trout may still be "The Best Player in the World", but has slipped in our game.
We don't have a best player per se.
We have a bunch of five and four category players who we think highly of.
I know a fella who thinks Juan Soto is the best player in baseball right now. Says he'll take him number one in any draft.
There are folks who feel the same about Acuna, Tatis, Betts, Trout, and pitchers.
The only player who may NOT be taken number one among the top players is Jose Ramirez.
We have seen Ramirez fail for a year. We haven't seen that among all the other top players.
Heck, look what failure did to Christian Yelich's ADP this year

As far as analytics, I like some, hate others.
To me, they are just more statistics that we have to judge. What is important to you, may not be important to me.
During last year, an NFBC player told me that Nick Castellanos was killing Statcast analysis in the number of 'barreled balls'.
I asked which pitchers he barreled those balls against.
"I don't know" was the response. That's kind of important.
With these newer stats, they make us delve even deeper into stats.
It's not enough knowing the stats themselves, but how those stats were arrived at.

Analytics has created push button Managers like Cash, Roberts, Kapler and others.
They play by a new set of rules.
Lefty vs. Righty is ALWAYS better.
My bullpen is ALWAYS better than a Starter after so many pitches.
The game doesn't ALWAYS have to finish with the same pitcher.
And more.
They all go against the grain of our game.
We have to adjust.
They won't.
We have to adjust because we are copycatting the game being played.
The good fantasy players will do just that and adjust.
Others?
The others will cry that baseball has changed too much and move on.