One Word

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12821
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

One Word

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:15 am

I've been drafting in the PreMature League.
We pretty much set what ADP will be in the coming year with the NFBC.
Sure, there are some outliers. I'm guessing DJ LeMahieu will not be a first round choice in most drafts.
Still, the core of the group is true for drafts to come.

Each drafter in every draft has their own methodology. One may like a certain category over another. Some will fade categories. Some will punt them altogether. Some will look at peripherals leading up to those categories. Some will do the eye test. Some will combine these and others.
My point being that each draft is different because WE are different.

This PreMature Draft is unlike any other PreMature I've done.
To me, the player pool has no deep end.
2020 had no minor league system. There are few prospects. Missing are the prospects who tore up the Minors. Who zoomed from A to AAA.
Instead of drafting those-type players, we contemplate David Bote or Nick Ahmed or maybe a reliever as dull as they are.
More than any year I've been in the NFBC, one thing is for sure.
In order to win, we have to get the top rounds of a draft right.
Last year, I cashed in over half of my DC's. No brag, just fact.
I drafted Adam Wainwright more than any other player. Adam Duvall in just about every draft. Aledmys Diaz too.
These players helped a lot.
I don't see many lower round players helping like that this coming year.

The pool has shrunk from 10 feet to six feet.
We can still draft minor leaguers, sure, but not with the same confidence as in past seasons.
If a minor leaguer was not brought up to the Big Team in 2020, we ask ourselves if that team has less confidence in the player.
And since that player didn't play, we have no numbers to direct us.

The top of the draft isn't much better.
Do we trust a two month season?
We know that Christian Yelich isn't a bad player. We know it.
But, he sure was for two months.
Shane Bieber was the winner of 2020. He could do no wrong.
And now, it's not just deGrom vs. Cole.
It's deGrom vs. Cole vs. Bieber.
Bieber got slammed in the playoffs.
Bad game?
Or was he starting to tire from a wonderful two months?
We don't know.

For me, I've put aside ALL numbers from 2020 and most before.
Sure, I'll draft some of the kids who came up or some veterans who rebounded.
But it won't be because of numbers.
For this year, one word trumps numbers. That word is TRUST.
I don't care that Mondesi hit like crap the first half of 2020, before being on fire the second half.
I don't care that Luke Voit led the league in homers and that Pete Alonso fell back.
I have to ask myself, which do I trust more, Mondesi's first half or second half?
Luke Voit or Pete Alonso?

During the next five months, we are going to be inundated with numbers. Writers are going to give us numbers in backing up this player or that player.
It'll be dumb.
They'll either rely on the past or two months of recency bias.
They have to make a living. Understood.
These numbers will mean less than in any year we've ever had in fantasy baseball.
The numbers we should care about this upcoming year are none.
They're letters. T-R-U-S-T.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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