The Dinosaur of Fantasy

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

The Dinosaur of Fantasy

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:51 am

At one time, the Win defined a Starting Pitcher.
We don't remember much about Dizzy Dean, but we know he won 30 games.
Denny McLain was the last pitcher to win 30 games.
Up till recently, a 20-game Winner was considered a really good pitcher.
Now, not only does a 20-game winner have to be good. He has to be lucky.
He needs an offense to build a lead for him.
He needs a Manager who is not quick with a hook.
He needs analytics on his side, so that he can face a lineup a third time.
He needs a strong bullpen to preserve his leads.
A 20-game Winner is now a very needy pitcher!

Winning 20 games has become one of the most difficult things to do in baseball.
During the last five years, only seven pitchers have won 20 games.
Among the names are first round pitchers in drafts like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.
Also among the names are Rick Porcello and JA Happ.
Wins have become so difficult that Starting Pitcher agents do not use the stat. Haven't for years.
They've used 'Quality Starts'.
That too, will soon be coming to an end.
Sure, it is easier to get a Quality Start.
But at the same time, Starting Pitchers are no longer defined by innings.
The Quality Start needs six innings.
Starting Pitchers do not average six innings. They haven't for the last five years.
This year, the average start consisted of 4 2/3 innings.
The first time that Starters have dipped below the prerequisite for a Win.

The trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine swear by throwing every day.
They felt that it conditions an arm.
Doctors, agents, front office personnel, and all others believe that arms should be babied.
125 pitches has become 120 pitches, has become 110 pitches, has become 100 pitches, and now these folks want less than 100 pitches.
For a dominant pitcher, one who strikes out batters, this does not leave leeway to throw a lot of innings.
Not one team believes in the Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine theories.
Even though 800 Wins between three pitchers should have swayed somebody, right?
Instead, todays pitchers are coddled.

In fantasy, we now think of the Win category as lucky.
We hardly draft a pitcher with Wins on our minds.
From a Starting Pitcher, iour mindset goes in this order....

K's
Ratios
Wins

We feel we have no control over Wins.
Although, we do. Somewhat.
Bad teams get less Wins.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will get less Wins.
We'll draft Joe Musgrove in the 11th round.
We'll think THIS is the year.
And it may be as far as K's and ratios....but he won't Win much.
Musgrove won one game in 2020.
No Pirates Starter won more than two.

What about a better pitcher?
Zac Gallen.
Gallen had nine games in which he obliterated the Quality Start.
Nine games in which he threw at least six innings and giving up just two runs, not three.
In most of those starts, zero or one run allowed.
Still, Gallen had just three Wins. Three.

Jake deGrom is infamous for the elusive Win.
If any pitcher in baseball should be a 20-game winner, it is deGrom.
Never.
Never won 19...or 18...or 17...or 16
The best pitcher in baseball once won 15 Games.
That sentence has never been printed in any other era.
Coincidentally, deGrom has also won 15 Games during the last two years.
During that time, more than 20 other pitchers have won more games.
Brett Anderson who will rarely be picked at all in Main Events this year and was rarely picked during the last two years in Main Events has 17 Wins over the last two years.
Hell, last year, five relievers won more games than deGrom/.
I've barely heard of Caleb Baragar, a Giants reliever.
He won more games than deGrom.

Indeed, the Win has become 'lucky'.
As fantasy drafters, we can draft for Wins using the criteria above in the first paragraph, but they're still lucky.
Within the next few years, baseball will either get rid of, or re-design the Win.
With the average Starting Pitcher throwing less than five innings, the Win has almost become mute.
And like agents, fantasy baseball cannot fall back on the Quality Start.
Soon, six innings will be too much to ask for a pitcher.
Pulling Blake Snell ,when cruising in the sixth inning of an important World Series game was a microcosm of today's baseball thinking.
Snell had to pitch 5 1/3 innings of nearly perfect ball to last as long as he did!

What do we do as Fantasy Players?
Nothing.
We're screwed.
Sure, we can fade Joe Musgrove a little.
We can overdraft a fella like Lance Lynn who pitches on a good team and has become something that is missing in todays game...A Horse.
But other than that, there is little that can be done.
I don't even know what we can replace the Win with if baseball decides to take the Win designation entirely away.
It's a conundrum.
One that will have to be solved by somebody smarter than I.
Hell, I'm having a hard enough time drafting for Wins this upcoming season.
But like myself, the Win is a dinosaur.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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