Skinny Little Shit's

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Skinny Little Shit's

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:37 am

Deivi Garcia is at the top of players not drafted. Probably because the Yankees just signed Corey Kluber and traded for Jameson Taillon. As if those two are a picture of health.
Nah, there's another reason. It's because he's a skinny little shit. We have a hard time trusting skinny little shits. Especially pitchers.
Go ahead, think of a Hall of Fame pitcher that was a skinny little shit.
Mariano Rivera may come closest, but even he had some meat on his bones.

We are ok in FAAB'ing skinny little shits. We trust them for the short haul. Triston McKenzie was a popular choice last year. This year, his ADP has dropped from the eighth round to the 13th round.
Why?
Because early in the draft season, his accomplishments were given credence. As the draft season goes on, more drafters have come to the realization that he's a skinny little shit.

Skinny little shit's are not to be confused with storks. Randy Johnson was a stork. A stork is a skinny little shit on height steroids.
Tom Gordon was Dee Gordon's dad. Both, skinny little shits.
Gordon was a damned good skinny little shit. One of the best.

Speaking of body types, Dustin Pedroia went to Arizona State University.
Hit the crap out of the ball.
Pedroia did something through College and the minor leagues that few players can brag about.
He would have more extra base hits than strike outs every year. Something refreshing to hear with our current game.
When it came time for the draft though, Pedroia was ignored. At the time, Pedroia was a chubby little shit.
In reality, Pedroia was more of a penguin than Ron Cey.
Pedroia did not work his way into baseball shape. He wanted to play baseball, not go to a gym. For that he was punished by major league teams, much like we punish skinny little shit pitchers.
Scouts also said that Pedroia had a plus hit tool, but a minus in hitting for power, speed, arm, and fielding.
The Red Sox had a young GM, Theo Epstein. He, along with his scouts, decided that Pedroia's hand-eye coordination outweighed all the other minuses and selected him with their first pick.
They were widely ridiculed.
But once Pedroia made it to the Red Sox, he spent an off season going from chubby to taut.
The Red Sox won World Series, Pedroia a part in all of them. Epstein, a genius.

Maybe when the draft winds back to me, I'll take that skinny little shit Deivi.
Maybe it's time for me to stop the skinny little shit bias.
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Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bronx Yankees
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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by Bronx Yankees » Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:09 pm

Great post, Dan.

I’ll add a skinny little shit for ya - Pedro Martinez. As a rookie he was about 5’ 10” or 11” and had to be sub-160 pounds. He turned out pretty well.

Mike
Mike Mager
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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:44 am

Bronx Yankees wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:09 pm
Great post, Dan.

I’ll add a skinny little shit for ya - Pedro Martinez. As a rookie he was about 5’ 10” or 11” and had to be sub-160 pounds. He turned out pretty well.

Mike
So right, Mike!

He was a skinny little shit, wasn't he.
His brother, Ramon, was a skinny shit too. They frustrated me so badly in fantasy. I loved Ramon even more than Pedro at an earlier age and stayed on the Ramon bandwagon when I should have jumped to Pedro.

I remember playing baseball in High School and College. It would always put a little burr in my saddle when a skinny little shit got me out.

A story about a non-pitching skinny little shit. In College, a bunch of us jocks would hang out at an '18' place. For those who are younger, an 18 place is where the strongest drink a bar can serve is 3.2 beer. Typical College hang out.
Anyway, this skinny little shit comes in and picks a fight with the fullback (they don't have those any longer. Really showing my age with this post.)
The skinny little shit knows some kind of martial arts and kicks the shit outta the fullback.
The Skinny little shit was a BMOC (Big Man on Campus) for a few weeks after that.
But later, the skinny little shit came into the bar. The fullback smiled and told him how impressed he was by his skills.
Cocky, the skinny little shit agreed to arm wrestle the fullback.
An ambulance had to be called when the skinny little shit had his shoulder dislocated by the fullback.
A lesson in sticking to your skill set.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bronx Yankees
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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by Bronx Yankees » Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:01 am

LOL. Great story and sweet revenge for the FB.

I think some concerns about really skinny little shits making it through a full MLB season probably are legit. McKenzie has had health issues and lost velo during the course of a mini-season. He's got really strong skills, but I'll probably lean "under" on most IP projections.

That said, I don't like it when generalizations are applied to everyone without further analysis. To rule out a skinny little shit from potentially dominating seems similar to ruling out pitchers who don't have super-strong velo. If a young Greg Maddux was making his way through the minors today, would he be considered a high prospect? How long would it take before we would draft him where he belonged in fantasy? (God knows I've always been reluctant to draft a Kyle Hendricks type to my detriment; now that I'm finally warming to him, his price is getting quite steep.)

So, I think being a skinny little shit may be a cause for concern, but should not be disqualifying in fantasy analysis.
Mike Mager
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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:19 am

Bronx Yankees wrote:
Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:01 am
LOL. Great story and sweet revenge for the FB.

I think some concerns about really skinny little shits making it through a full MLB season probably are legit. McKenzie has had health issues and lost velo during the course of a mini-season. He's got really strong skills, but I'll probably lean "under" on most IP projections.

That said, I don't like it when generalizations are applied to everyone without further analysis. To rule out a skinny little shit from potentially dominating seems similar to ruling out pitchers who don't have super-strong velo. If a young Greg Maddux was making his way through the minors today, would he be considered a high prospect? How long would it take before we would draft him where he belonged in fantasy? (God knows I've always been reluctant to draft a Kyle Hendricks type to my detriment; now that I'm finally warming to him, his price is getting quite steep.)

So, I think being a skinny little shit may be a cause for concern, but should not be disqualifying in fantasy analysis.
You're right and I can't say no to any player because he has one physical characteristic that I don't care for.
But, it is a demerit in my thinking in who to draft.
If McKenzie and Bartolo Colon had exactly the same stats, I would probably lean towards drafting Colon.
Another drafter may have a similar bias and take McKenzie because Colon is, to him, out of shape.

You bring up Hendricks and velocity...
I was scorekeeping for a Rockies affiliate. One of their players was Ryan Garvey. Garvey was an average prospect, a right fielder with some pop and a great arm. His Dad was Steve Garvey.
Garvey came to watch his son play for a three game series.
He came into the press box and gave out autographs. I just wanted to shake his hand.
I told him how I appreciated the way he approached the game (avoiding the off field womanizing subject) and asked if he'd sign a book about him that I had at home. I think it tickled him that I had that book and he spent most of the next three days sitting beside me during games.
I was in Heaven.
Asked him every question I could possibly think of. He was gracious and I was like a kid in a candy store.
His response to one question has always struck me.
I asked Garvey who was the toughest pitcher he ever faced.
He said that there really wasn't one. He said, sure, when facing Nolan Ryan or somebody tough like that, he knew he would have to 'ratchet it up, but for him, the toughest pitchers were those that had pitches he did not see often.
That he could always gear up a batting practice pitcher (by throwing pitches from a shorter distance, lessening the reaction time) or machine to simulate Ryan's speed, but hitting a Brothers Niekro knuckler or a Mike Marshall screwball was really the most difficult for him.
He found it harder to face pitchers that didn't rely on velocity.

I feel the same is happening in our game today.
Many hard throwing closers have done well, but Mariano Rivera with a cutter that others didn't possess did better.
Same with Trevor Hoffman and his changeup.
And look what Devin Williams did with his changeup last year.
Velocity is what the scouts crave and really, what we crave in garnering K's for our game.
But slowly, I believe the worm will turn again.
Batters are used to velocity. As Garvey said, they can 'ratchet up' for a pitcher who brings it.
Pitchers like Hendricks who uses control as a weapon and other pitchers like him will join the high velocity guys once again like back in the day when Mike Mussina, Jimmy Key, Don Sutton, and Tommy John used their brains as much as their velocity to get batters out.
Baseball is like 'As the World Turns'. The story line is ever-changing.
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Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Bronx Yankees
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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by Bronx Yankees » Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:12 pm

Good point and good story. I remember Garvey well - that clean-cut Boy Scout persona - the Dodgers had a great infield and team in the late-70's/early-80's when they played my Yankees in the Series. It must have been awesome to pepper him with questions for a few days - I'd have done the same. It probably was nice for him to speak a truly knowledgeable fan.

As I've dived into starting pitching prep, one thing I've noticed relates to velocity and perhaps bolsters your point. I've noticed that certain SP consistently do a superior job of limiting hard contact and barrels. In many cases, those SP are on the lower end of the velo scale. It makes sense; when you do connect against heat, you probably more likely to do harm and have the ball go harder and farther than when connecting against off-speed/lower velo pitches. Just a generalization; lots of exceptions, of course. You also have to discount small samples, but there are some pitchers that repeatedly limit hard contact better than most, and many of them are soft - or softer - tossers.

Mike
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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:48 pm

We all love velocity. It is the chain saw to the axe of soft tossers. In the end though, both get the job done.
I laugh when critics say that Hendricks is using smoke and mirrors.
He merely has a different skill set and uses his skill of placing pitches where the least harm will do.
Critics also laud Michael Kopech. They know little of what he can really do, like all of us, but they know he has a velocity.
They consider velocity to be a key. No smoke and mirrors needed. But we've seen as many of these type of pitchers fail as well.

In fantasy baseball right now, velocity is highly regarded. Maybe at an all-time high.
We relate velocity to strike outs. Rightfully so.
But a lot of drafters fall into this trap...
"I'll take Joe Velocity over Jim Control because I know I will at least get the K's"
This is really a bad way to go about pitching.
It's a little like the Glasnow-effect. He has mostly hurt his drafters with that kind of reckoning.
One year, indeed, he will probably figure it out.
But each year leading up to that year, Kyle Hendricks kicks his fantasy ass.
I'm not trying to pick on or cherry pick on Glasnow.
It's just the way of our fantasy world.
High velocity pitchers, usually, have to throw more pitches than soft tossers leading to the dreaded 4 2/3 Starts.

I see Matt Boyd being taken in the 20th round and Jon Lester being drafted in the 40th round.
Makes me roll my eyes every time.
Boyd can strike out batters. THAT is his chief skill. Maybe his only skill.
Lester has gotten hitters out forever.
Pitching for Washington, I believe that even with decreased velocity , a worse defense, and old age that he'll beat Boyd in three of four categories.
Lester had his worst year by far last year. Horrible by his and our standards. Yet, Boyd only beat him in the K category.
The credence we've given to velocity and the almighty K really has me taken aback.
But like said, it will all change again soon.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:56 pm

By the way....
LOVE the conversation, Mike!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: Skinny Little Shit's

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:18 pm

Kevin Gausman was the Tyler Glasnow of his time. He broke many a fantasy heart. He threw damned hard like Glasnow.
Still throws hard.
And like Glasnow, I have always avoided drafting Gausman.
But now, he's learning to pitch.
He is throwing less fastballs, even though he still throws 95 MPH.
He has figured out that batters can still sit on a fastball. No matter the velocity. He's learning to pitch!
He has thrown more sinkers and is relying on other pitches far more than when younger.
At the age of 30, he has finally figured something out and he goes back on my drafting radar.
Many pitchers have done the same.
I love Sandy Koufax.
Koufax went down the same road. He threw harder than anybody.
But wasted the first few years of his career relying only on that velocity.
A backup catcher, Norm Sherry, suggested to Sandy that he NOT throw as hard.
Soon, Koufax was not only throwing more strikes but had actually become a combination high velocity/high control guy with other great stuff.
Or as we say in fantasy baseball...HEAVEN ON A ROSTER!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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