The Bitch That is 2021

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

The Bitch That is 2021

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:27 am

This may be the toughest year to draft since fantasy baseball started. Let's face it, as drafters we take our cues from the last year of play.
We are a slave to recency bias.
We don't have a last year of play. We have 60 games. Two months. One third of a year.
Worse, 2019 was the year of the Funball.
So we are fallowing a shortened year and a distorted year.
Take that fantasy drafters!

For my part, I don't rely on stats or analytics very much in my early drafting.
Is Luke Voit a true home run Champ? Not really. The year ended just in time for him as he was going through foot problems.
Is Christian Yelich as bad as he was last year? Not really. Even the best hitters can slump for a month or two.
So what is a fantasy drafter to do?
Look at others projections?
Buy a magazine?
Not us.

We cannot do those things.
We're in the NFBC. The NFBC has the best fantasy players in the world.
Sure, we can look at other projections, or magazines, or listen to a podcast.
But really, only for pieces of info that we may have missed in our study.
We're not really going to be helped much by these outlets.
What we do is find our 'own' players. Players we trust.

I predict there will be a lot of the same drafters names in Overall contests.
By that, I mean that we will see this...

1. Jim
2. Bob
3. Dan
4. Jim
5. Jim
6. Sam
7. Bob
8. Bob
9. Dan
10. Bill

If a multi-entrant likes certain players and they succeed, HE will succeed.
In the above set of standings, Jim figured out the right players to take.
So did Bob and Dan.
Sam and Bill were probably one time entrants.

I'll talk about some players during the next month most effected by these two past years.
Today, Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Judge.
Believe it or not, Luzardo is only 23 years old. It seems like he has already been around forever.
This is because he has been overdrafted since day 1.
Luzardo oozes talent.
Unfortunately, his best skill is screwing us.
He never seems to syay healthy enough for us to use him in a game.
And when we do, like last year, he throws more like a Satan than a Jesus.
He's a tough one to figure.
I've been one of those overdrafters in the past.
This year, I believe his price is to high for past aggressions against us.
I have not drafted him.

Aaron Judge is tough.
No, not tough, physically. Peanut brittle there.
No, he's a tough man to draft.
We like stability at the top of drafts.
Judge is as stable as a drunk butterfly.
Still, there are those numbers.
Judge has played one full season and hit 52 homers.
All the others seasons are partial flashes of what could be.
Like his teammate, Mike Stanton, Judge is metriculating down draft boards because of his chief skill of being hurt.
The difference being that Stanton actually had a few healthy years when younger.

Judge's current ADP is 54. The middle of the fourth round.
For me, that is too high of a price. The chance of injury is not baked in enough.
I have drafted Judge three times of my 19 teams.
Once at the bottom of the fifth round.
Twice in the sixth round.
We all have our price.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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