2022 First Round ADP

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

2022 First Round ADP

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 05, 2021 9:28 am

Looking at first round ADP, we haven't done really well after the first month. Or rather, some first round players haven't done well.
Here are the players who are justifying being selected in the first round...

Acuna Jr.
Tatis Jr.
Trout
deGrom
Cole
Bieber
Turner
Ramirez
Bauer
Story

10 of 15

Injuries have derailed a fewf first rounders...

Soto
Bellinger
Yelich

And just plain underperforming....

Betts
Freeman

I want to start something here that I'll try and update every Wednesday.
I'll list who I believe would be the top 15 players drafted, WERE THE DRAFT WAS TO START TODAY.
It should be a good exercise as we go through the season.
You folks can chime in if disagreeing (And we all disagree with one another, which makes our hobby great)
I'll even try to put them in some type of order, so we can see who is close to falling out.

Here is the way I believe a draft would go today....

1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (Some things never change)
2. Jake deGrom (Even among 'the big 3', he sets himself apart)
3. Fernandeo Tatis Jr. (The injury scares some off, but he is the largest difference maker on the board)
4. Mike Trout (His owners are happy, even without thefts)
5. Gerritt Cole (Cole and Bieber have been terrific)
6. Shane Bieber (Refer to number five)
7. Trea Turner (Even without Soto in the lineup, he's been great. On his way to 26/26)
8. Juan Soto (It's not a long term injury. We forgive injury more than under production.)
9. Tyler Glasnow (It has been a pitchers year. He has been a huge part of it)
10. Jose Ramirez (He does it all)
11. Trevor Story (I don't expect him to be in the top 15 at the end of the year. He'll be playing elsewhere)
12. Byron Buxton (Buxton has stayed healthy and been the player that most thought he could be)
13. Yu Darvish (He finished just outside of first round ADP this season)
14. Trevor Bauer (As said, its been a pitchers year)
15. JD Martinez (Martinez has been crushing it. A bonus...he is on his way to OF status once again)


For those of you counting at home...
Betts, Freeman, Yelich, Bellinger out
Glasnow, Buxton, Darvish, JD in

Some players who hare knocking on the door of the first round...

Corbin Burnes (We'll see what the injury is all about and how he deals with it when coming back)
Vlad Guerrero (Like Buxton, this may be his blossoming year)
Brandon Woodruff (The guy is really good)
Aaron Nola (Continued excellence)
Mookie Betts (We can toss him from the first round, but not forget him)
Freddie Freeman (See Mookie)

If I'm missing somebody or believe somebody is getting close enough to mention, let me know......
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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KJ Duke
Posts: 6574
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2004 6:00 pm

Re: 2022 First Round ADP

Post by KJ Duke » Thu May 06, 2021 7:40 pm

Burnes > Glasnow · do not trust
Betts > Buxton · cheating since since he's hurt again
Vlad > JD · age/confidence in health

And Bichette is right there.

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: 2022 First Round ADP

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri May 07, 2021 6:58 pm

That's why this will be a good exercise. It should be interesting to see how this plays out each week.
How many players will survive every week and how many players will duck in and out of the top 15.
Should be interesting.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

fritter
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:56 am

Re: 2022 First Round ADP

Post by fritter » Sat May 08, 2021 7:47 am

If you started drafting pitchers in rd 18 you may have a staff built around Means Rodon Bumgarner and Miley. Go figure.
ESH

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: 2022 First Round ADP

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 12, 2021 9:13 am

fritter wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 7:47 am
If you started drafting pitchers in rd 18 you may have a staff built around Means Rodon Bumgarner and Miley. Go figure.
ESH
There are always diamonds in the rough, right?
And if we would have drafted any of these pitchers in the 10th round, we would have been marked for the looney bin.
What a hobby!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: 2022 First Round ADP

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 12, 2021 9:46 am

Who is in the first round were we drafting today, May 12, 2021?

First, let's look at what we had last week....

1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (Some things never change)
2. Jake deGrom (Even among 'the big 3', he sets himself apart)
3. Fernandeo Tatis Jr. (The injury scares some off, but he is the largest difference maker on the board)
4. Mike Trout (His owners are happy, even without thefts)
5. Gerritt Cole (Cole and Bieber have been terrific)
6. Shane Bieber (Refer to number five)
7. Trea Turner (Even without Soto in the lineup, he's been great. On his way to 26/26)
8. Juan Soto (It's not a long term injury. We forgive injury more than under production.)
9. Tyler Glasnow (It has been a pitchers year. He has been a huge part of it)
10. Jose Ramirez (He does it all)
11. Trevor Story (I don't expect him to be in the top 15 at the end of the year. He'll be playing elsewhere)
12. Byron Buxton (Buxton has stayed healthy and been the player that most thought he could be)
13. Yu Darvish (He finished just outside of first round ADP this season)
14. Trevor Bauer (As said, its been a pitchers year)
15. JD Martinez (Martinez has been crushing it. A bonus...he is on his way to OF status once again)

One player has played...er...not played his way out of the first round.
Byron Buxton is intoxicating to drafters with his power/speed combo.
Unfortunately, getting hurt is Buxton's top skill.
And he is hurt again. So, HE GAWN.

Another player has dropped out because he has been average. We don't like average players in the first round.
Trevor Story is playing like he is going it alone in Colorado. And he is.
The Rockies have almost always had a superstar hitter or first rounder in fantasy baseball.
Walker, Helton, Tulo, Cargo, Arenado, and Story. This all ends when Story leaves, probably at the trade deadline.
That said, Story is not putting up first round stats. Merely, above average stats.
HE GAWN.



1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Jake deGrom
3. Mike Trout
4. TREA TURNER
5. Fernando Tatis Jr,
6. Gerrit Cole
7. Shane Bieber
8. Juan Soto
9. Jose Ramirez
10. Tyler Glasnow
11. Yu Darvish
12. Trevor Bauer
13. JD Martinez
14. Mookie Betts
15. Vladimir Guerrero

(Players in CAPS have moved up three or more spot. No caps, meaning they have moved down three or more spots.)

Mookie Betts is only playing above average, like Story.
BUT, Betts plays for a team who will keep his stats above average. A team that will keep his head in our stats.
Simply, I have more faith in Mookie as a first rounder over Story.

Vladdy moves into the first round!
The guy is raking and it doesn't look like its going to stop.
First basemen are drying up and Vladdy is passing Freddie as the top of the class at the position.
That's a challenge, Freddie.

I've been asked to add a second round.
I know how this works. If asked to add a second, I'll be asked for a third.
Here is what I'll do...
I'll add a second round on each holiday.
Memorial Day, 4th of July, Labor Day.
Sound good?
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: 2022 First Round ADP

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon May 17, 2021 7:35 am

For the most part during this past Main Event drafting season, the same nine players went in the top nine of most of these drafts.

Jake deGrom
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Juan Soto
Gerrit Cole
Mike Trout
Trea Turner
Mookie Betts
Shane Bieber

None of these nine players have been horrible for their owners as of yet.
At the same time, two, Betts and Soto, have been......dull.
We hate dull players in the first round.

Soto has been more active in taking pitches with his little routine, than actually hitting pitches.
Since coming back from an injury, he has hit .216 with one extra base hit in two weeks.
Soto will bust out, bur right now with a line of .264/17/3/14/1, he is just a plain bust.
Betts sits atop one of the most potent lineups in baseball. If we had an odds-on favorite to lead baseball in Runs, it would be Mookie.
His line is .257/21/4/14/5
While the four homers and five thefts are appreciated, the rest of his line is below par.
21 Runs?
Ty France and Pavin Smith have 21 Runs.

Mookie has been in and out of my first round for 2022. Again he is out.
It's a long season and he'll probably make his way back in the rankings, but not till he quits being....dull.
We'll keep an eye on Soto.
He was the darling of the draft season, especially for experts who were comparing him to Ted Williams.
(Hey experts, why do you compare stats from a different game to the game that is played now? I know it is all under the baseball umbrella, but c'mon man.)

For this week, Mookie is again out of the top 15 players for next year. Soto stays in, but he is on notice.
Soto gets a little more time to right himself after coming back from a shoulder owwie.
Mookie has no excuse.

We need some excitement to replace the Mookie-boredom.
I think I have found just the fellow to replace him.
Welcome Bo Bichette.
Bichette is on his way to a 26-26 season and has been a catalyst for the Blue Jays.
That makes two Blue Jays who are sons of former players who have entered the first round (No chance, Cavan Biggio)

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Jake deGrom
3. Trea Turner
4. Gerrit Cole
5. Mike Trout
6. Fernando Tatis Jr.
7. Jose Ramirez
8. Shane Bieber
9. Tyler Glasnow
10. Trevor Bauer
11. JD Martinez
12. Vlad Guerrero
13. juan soto
14. Yu Darvish
15. Bo Bichette

Personally, I feel the bubble will burst with Glasnow at some time.
But, he has been lights out and performance always wins out over what we think in our heads.
The only reason Soto is in the first round now is because of past performance. We are 25 percent through with this season and Soto has the stats of the aforementioned Pavin Smith.

Soto- .264/17/3/14/1

Smith- .270/21/3/13/1

We don't care that his shoulder may still be aching. We don't care that his OBP is 'fine'.
We care about the five categories in the NFBC. Soto is not delivering.
(You're welcome Soto owners if he goes off this week!)
We have never seen Soto fail. That is the chief reason he has been taken so high in drafts.
He is failing now and it is not pretty. If he had done what he has done this year during the short season of 2020, it would have been total failure and he would not have been picked in the first round this year.
As is, he has time to make up for the bad start. But for our purposes, it better be quick ;)
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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