'Projected Stats'...My Ass

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

'Projected Stats'...My Ass

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:31 am

Mind if I go on a rant?
Too bad. I'm the writer. You can't stop me. :)

I just read a players stats. Underneath those stats was the words 'projected stats'.
In this line, they show exactly what the player will finish with IF IF he follows the same course.
What?
What possible good does that do anybody?
No player follows the same path all year. There are ups and downs. There are slumps. There are streaks.
Projections in following a linear path are stupid.

I say it's stupid, but we sorta do the same thing. We think one year continues to the next year in regards to stats.
Juan Soto was a first round pick this year.
Why?
Because he looked sensational.
Now?
Now Soto doesn't look so sensational.
He looks average.
Very, very average.

Juan Soto .266/35/8/28/1

Freddy Galvis .253/34/9/25/1

When your stats parallel that of Freddy Galvis, that player is average.

We had no inkling that Soto would give us 15th round numbers. None at all.
We projected that he would follow the same course. After all, scribes were comparing him to Ted Williams.
But you know what?
We do it consistently.
Last year, we did the same thing with Christian Yelich.
This year, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, DJ LeMahieu, and several others are not living up to their draft pick status.
We are a year to year hobby and every year we fall into the same trap.

Our job is to predict who will be great THAT year. Every year is different.
Christian Yelich is not the player he used to be. Blame his back. Blame whatever you like. The truth is that Yelich is not the player he was two years ago.
We've all heard that once a player displays a skill, he retains that skill.
That sounds smart, but it is of no help whatsoever.
Yelich has the skills to be an MVP. Is that helping his drafters this year. Will it help next year?

Let's pretend it is the next drafting season.....
Do you want Christian Yelich in the first round?
Neither do I.
I don't care what skills he has shown in the past.
We are a NOW hobby.
A NOW hobby that depends on the past.
It sounds kinda silly, but we are.
Last drafting season, we would have had a big laugh at any drafter who selected Vlad Guerrero before Freddy Freeman.
That is because of the past.
Our linear fault of expecting Freeman to stay the same and Guerrero to only have gradual improvement.
Somehow, it is ok to overdraft a guy with speed like Bo Bichette (well done), but not to over draft a fella like Guerrero.
I think that is just us trying to reach five categories with one selection over a player who can only maximize four categories.

My point is, we are not a game where players stay the same.
Yet, there is a line under a players stats that 'projects' those same stats for the rest of the year.
And it is guaranteed that players who are having swell years this year will be thought to continue those trends when drafting season starts again.
This may be Vladimir Guerrero's peak year. It might.
But that will never enter our drafting minds.
It didn't for Christian Yelich and not for Juan Soto.
Nothing stays the same in our game.
THAT, that is what makes it such a challenge.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Thurman15
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:27 pm

Re: 'Projected Stats'...My Ass

Post by Thurman15 » Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:08 pm

I am shocked on Juan Soto. But not on Yelich. Once he started striking out so much I figured he was not going to continue like an MVP. I have Vladdy on a bunch of teams, but as you suggested I did not pick him in the first round. I did in the 2nd round and always took him in the 3rd round. But I never envisioned this....wow !! And I thought I knew to steer away from JD Martinez.....oops. You win some you lose some.

Next year (although things will likely change) I see the Big 5 as Acuna, Tatis, Vladdy, Trea Turner and Ohtani. Yelich 3rd round. Soto late first. deGrom the only 1st round pitcher. Since we no longer have an idea of who is good and who has slipped dramatically due to no grip, I just don't see pitchers going until late 2nd round. (except deGrom ) Are Cole, Scherzer, Bieber and Bauer still great ?? I doubt it. Bauer will be lucky if he is even allowed back in MLB. The way the world is today, I'm betting he is charged criminally and banned for a year.

So here is a wild shot at the 1st round.

1 Tatis
2 Vladdy
3 Ohtani
4 Acuna
5 Trea Turner
6 deGrom
7 Bichette
8 Mike Trout
9 Devers
10 Ozzie Albies
11 Jose Ramirez
12 Yordan Alvarez
13 Juan Soto
14 Cedric Mullins
15Jesse Winker
Let me know what you think Dan
Rogers Hornsby, Hall of Famer with the Cardinals was once asked " You love Baseball Rogers, but what do you do in the winter ? " His response......"I stare out the window and wait for spring "

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: 'Projected Stats'...My Ass

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:17 am

I guess I am one of the few that is not shocked about Soto. I felt that, although an analytical darling last year, that he virtually stopped hitting when pitchers started throwing around him. It resulted in a lot of walks (what makes an analytical darling more than the BB?) But he had very little in the way of fantasy stats.
That has carried over this year. Soto is starting to adjust though and I think he becomes the hitter again that we all know he can be.

My favorite players to draft this year were Abreu and Merrifield. Abreu has been disappointing (He looks old this year) despite the RBI.
Merrifield is a hit.

We're a funny lot, us fantasy baseball players.
It seems like every draft season, we say that minimal Starting Pitchers are going to be selected in the first round.
Last year, it was deGrom, Cole, and Bieber to start the drafting season.
By the time the big drafts started in March, as many as six Starters were taken in the first round.
Al, you're the third NFBC player that has said deGrom will be the only pitcher taken in the first round.
And you may be right. At least for the beginning of the year.
But after that, drafters start changing minds and want their Aces badly.
Cole, Bieber, Darvish, Woodruff, and others will see the first round.....

As for the first round, we're all different, which makes this season long game such a great game.
If Ohtani is ruled by the NFBC as a P or U like this year, I don't believe he will be in the top 5.
If Ohtani is a true two way player and can be used as both a hitter and pitcher, then I do believe he is a top 6 player.
I've had communication with Greg in preparation for the PreMature Draft and there is a possibility that Ohtani will be a true two way player for his drafters.
I think that would really heighten his interest!

So, if Ohtani is a true two way player for his drafters, I like this for the first round....

1. Tatis
2. Acuna Jr.
3. deGrom
4. Turner
5. Ohtani
6. Guerrero
7. Soto
8. Trout
9. Bieber
10. Cole
11. Bichette
12. Woodruff
13. Albies
14. J Ramirez
15. Devers

Like hitters who have to adjust, I believe some pitchers have to adjust in throwing without sticky stuff.
Cole is probably chief among them (Although Aroldis Chapman has not been the same)
I give Bieber the benefit of the doubt.
And Woody has been plain sensational, both before the sticky stuff controversy and after.

It'll be interesting to see how our lists change over the second half, Al.
On my list, if Bieber comes back and fails without sticky stuff, he drops.
If Cole cannot adjust, he drops.

On your list...
If Mullins or Winker slumps during the second half, they drop.
If Alvarez gets another injury, he drops.
We are a game of constant change.
We may look at these lists in October and have a good laugh at ourselves.
We just don't know.
I love this game!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: 'Projected Stats'...My Ass

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:11 pm

Here is an impromptu first round among NFBC drafters for 2022....

1. Tatis Jr.
2. deGrom
3. Guerrero
4. Turner
5. Ohtani
6. Devers
7. Bichette
8. Acuna Jr.
9. JRamirez
10. Cole
11. Albies
12. Soto
13. Woodruff
14. Betts
15. Trout

This draft was started Monday during the break. So, after the Acuna Jr. injury.
It is also done with the presumption that Ohtani will be a two way fantasy performer for drafters next year.

Thoughts?
If interested I can post a couple of more rounds....
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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