'Projected Stats'...My Ass
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:31 am
Mind if I go on a rant?
Too bad. I'm the writer. You can't stop me.
I just read a players stats. Underneath those stats was the words 'projected stats'.
In this line, they show exactly what the player will finish with IF IF he follows the same course.
What?
What possible good does that do anybody?
No player follows the same path all year. There are ups and downs. There are slumps. There are streaks.
Projections in following a linear path are stupid.
I say it's stupid, but we sorta do the same thing. We think one year continues to the next year in regards to stats.
Juan Soto was a first round pick this year.
Why?
Because he looked sensational.
Now?
Now Soto doesn't look so sensational.
He looks average.
Very, very average.
Juan Soto .266/35/8/28/1
Freddy Galvis .253/34/9/25/1
When your stats parallel that of Freddy Galvis, that player is average.
We had no inkling that Soto would give us 15th round numbers. None at all.
We projected that he would follow the same course. After all, scribes were comparing him to Ted Williams.
But you know what?
We do it consistently.
Last year, we did the same thing with Christian Yelich.
This year, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, DJ LeMahieu, and several others are not living up to their draft pick status.
We are a year to year hobby and every year we fall into the same trap.
Our job is to predict who will be great THAT year. Every year is different.
Christian Yelich is not the player he used to be. Blame his back. Blame whatever you like. The truth is that Yelich is not the player he was two years ago.
We've all heard that once a player displays a skill, he retains that skill.
That sounds smart, but it is of no help whatsoever.
Yelich has the skills to be an MVP. Is that helping his drafters this year. Will it help next year?
Let's pretend it is the next drafting season.....
Do you want Christian Yelich in the first round?
Neither do I.
I don't care what skills he has shown in the past.
We are a NOW hobby.
A NOW hobby that depends on the past.
It sounds kinda silly, but we are.
Last drafting season, we would have had a big laugh at any drafter who selected Vlad Guerrero before Freddy Freeman.
That is because of the past.
Our linear fault of expecting Freeman to stay the same and Guerrero to only have gradual improvement.
Somehow, it is ok to overdraft a guy with speed like Bo Bichette (well done), but not to over draft a fella like Guerrero.
I think that is just us trying to reach five categories with one selection over a player who can only maximize four categories.
My point is, we are not a game where players stay the same.
Yet, there is a line under a players stats that 'projects' those same stats for the rest of the year.
And it is guaranteed that players who are having swell years this year will be thought to continue those trends when drafting season starts again.
This may be Vladimir Guerrero's peak year. It might.
But that will never enter our drafting minds.
It didn't for Christian Yelich and not for Juan Soto.
Nothing stays the same in our game.
THAT, that is what makes it such a challenge.
Too bad. I'm the writer. You can't stop me.
I just read a players stats. Underneath those stats was the words 'projected stats'.
In this line, they show exactly what the player will finish with IF IF he follows the same course.
What?
What possible good does that do anybody?
No player follows the same path all year. There are ups and downs. There are slumps. There are streaks.
Projections in following a linear path are stupid.
I say it's stupid, but we sorta do the same thing. We think one year continues to the next year in regards to stats.
Juan Soto was a first round pick this year.
Why?
Because he looked sensational.
Now?
Now Soto doesn't look so sensational.
He looks average.
Very, very average.
Juan Soto .266/35/8/28/1
Freddy Galvis .253/34/9/25/1
When your stats parallel that of Freddy Galvis, that player is average.
We had no inkling that Soto would give us 15th round numbers. None at all.
We projected that he would follow the same course. After all, scribes were comparing him to Ted Williams.
But you know what?
We do it consistently.
Last year, we did the same thing with Christian Yelich.
This year, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, DJ LeMahieu, and several others are not living up to their draft pick status.
We are a year to year hobby and every year we fall into the same trap.
Our job is to predict who will be great THAT year. Every year is different.
Christian Yelich is not the player he used to be. Blame his back. Blame whatever you like. The truth is that Yelich is not the player he was two years ago.
We've all heard that once a player displays a skill, he retains that skill.
That sounds smart, but it is of no help whatsoever.
Yelich has the skills to be an MVP. Is that helping his drafters this year. Will it help next year?
Let's pretend it is the next drafting season.....
Do you want Christian Yelich in the first round?
Neither do I.
I don't care what skills he has shown in the past.
We are a NOW hobby.
A NOW hobby that depends on the past.
It sounds kinda silly, but we are.
Last drafting season, we would have had a big laugh at any drafter who selected Vlad Guerrero before Freddy Freeman.
That is because of the past.
Our linear fault of expecting Freeman to stay the same and Guerrero to only have gradual improvement.
Somehow, it is ok to overdraft a guy with speed like Bo Bichette (well done), but not to over draft a fella like Guerrero.
I think that is just us trying to reach five categories with one selection over a player who can only maximize four categories.
My point is, we are not a game where players stay the same.
Yet, there is a line under a players stats that 'projects' those same stats for the rest of the year.
And it is guaranteed that players who are having swell years this year will be thought to continue those trends when drafting season starts again.
This may be Vladimir Guerrero's peak year. It might.
But that will never enter our drafting minds.
It didn't for Christian Yelich and not for Juan Soto.
Nothing stays the same in our game.
THAT, that is what makes it such a challenge.