LIFO and Fantasy

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

LIFO and Fantasy

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:52 am

FIFO (“First-In, First-Out”) assumes that the oldest products in a company's inventory have been sold first and goes by those production costs.

LIFO (“Last-In, First-Out”) assumes that the most recent products in a company's inventory have been sold first and uses those costs instead.

We in the fantasy biz are much more about LIFO than FIFO. For the most part we have short memories. Although Shandler says that once a player displays a skill blah blah blah...we don't really believe it.
Nope.
We are a 'What have you done for me lately' crowd.

I've crowed about Joey Votto for years. If we would have listened to me, he would be a member of the 500 home run club. He is that good of a hitter.
Last year, Votto saw the light. He quit taking pitches and started hitting them. Voila, Votto hits 36 homers at 38 years of age.
It makes me want to draft Votto.
Something I haven't said his whole career. It is LIFO over FIFO.

But, there is another player I want to talk about with our FIFO vs. LIFO element.
This player has no past.
In fact, he has only had one good month of MLB ball.
Yet, this player was taken in the seventh round of our recently completed New Years Day draft which featured some of the best drafters that the NFBC has.
In fact, Camilo Doval was drafted with the second pick of the seventh round. Putting him in the company of Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Kenley Jansen.

Doval was brilliant during September. Gabe Kapler made him his Closer when Jake McGee faltered down the stretch.
That 'stretch' was one week.
That's right.
Doval garnered Saves on September 28 and 29 and another on October 1.
And another in the playoffs.
THAT is what we remember.
It is classic LIFO over FIFO.
Screw McGee.
It seemed as if he and Mark Melancon were getting Saves every day during last season.
McGee ended up with 31 Saves.
Heck, teammate Tyler Rogers garnered 13 Saves himself.
BUT, it is Doval we remember.

For us and Doval, it is a perfect storm.
In a time when there is no player movement in baseball, Doval has moved plenty in our drafts.
In the very first draft of the year in the Pre-Mature League, Doval was taken in round 17.
Two months later, round seven.
It isn't just FIFO LIFO driving Doval up the draft boards. It is also FOMO or fear of missing out.
We don't know who will be Closing out games for half of the Major League teams.
Hell, the teams themselves don't know who will be Closing for them.
So, the way we combat this is FOMO. We draft Closers we think are assured of a job too high.
That's right. I said "Too High".
C'mon. Is Will Smith really a sixth round pick? Mark Melancon? Jordan Romano?

Through LIFO and FOMO, we have reckoned that Camilo Doval is a seventh round pick.
We set aside that Doval has had one month of good relief.
We set aside that he has Closed for one week.
We set aside that two teammates received more Saves.
We set aside that Gabe Kapler has always been a little fickle when pertaining to his bullpen.
For us, Camilo Doval is the Man!
LIFO says so.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Rotties
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Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: LIFO and Fantasy

Post by Rotties » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:20 pm

Could be the 2022 version of Karinchak

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: LIFO and Fantasy

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:50 am

Very well could be, Ante.

Sometimes we fantasy folks let greed override common sense. I don't want to pick on the Forecaster here....but I will :lol:
Last year, analytical folks loved guys like Karinchak. Same with Emilio Pagan.
Most fantasy folks gave the Padres job to Pagan. He was taken high in early drafts.
The Forecaster wrote 'Up 30 Saves'.
While Melancon was a Closer who could not be trusted.
This year, the Forecaster says Pagan can't be trusted.
Makes me feel like the Forecaster can't be trusted!...Sorry, unnecessary shot... :D

Our greed makes us want more than just a Closer. We want a Closer who will help with K's and Ratio.
We want to make a four category player out of a player, who really, is just a one trick pony.
So instead of taking the fella that Managers love to Close a game. We draft potential.
Nine Closers had 30 Saves last year.
Just two (Hader, Diaz) were under the age of 30.
That tells us where Managers heads are. Still, we push the young gun.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: LIFO and Fantasy

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:35 pm

James, I saw your post about Adolis Garcia. He is a FIFO player in that he had a great first half, but ended up like crap.
If reversed, he would be going in the first five rounds.
Subjectively, he reminds me of Aristedes Aquino. :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

ChipChopChip
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:46 pm

Re: LIFO and Fantasy

Post by ChipChopChip » Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:19 am

Dan, Aquino is a good example of what I think Adolis will be this coming year. I think the major difference between Adolis and several of the other young guys that struggle is that the scouts don’t think he has the hit tool. Riley had similar struggles to Adolis but he was considered a top prospect. If I am going to gamble on a prospect, I would prefer to grab guys like Carlson, Kelenic, or Kiroloff.

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: LIFO and Fantasy

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:57 pm

A pretty easy pass for me.
He hit .220 over the last three months of the season and didn't seem to adjust to what pitchers were doing to him.
The FIFO LIFO thing...
Intriguing that he stole seven bases in September... :|
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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