Mondesi, Buxton, and Tits

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Mondesi, Buxton, and Tits

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:50 pm

We NFBC Baseball drafters are a fickle bunch. Fickle.
I'm going to start a series over the next few days comparing or talking about certain players.
I'll list pros and cons and other stuff about these players. Just no analytics.
If wanting analytics, go pay for it or better yet, listen to a number of podcasters who pay for the numbers, then recite them as if they are their own :lol: :roll:

Today, we have a seven year veteran who has an average line of .248/36/10/29/10
and a player who has played six years and has this line.............249/30/6/26/21

Looking at these stats, you wouldn't think much of either player. The only stat catching our eye is the 21 stolen bases for the second player.
What if I were to tell you that both these players are being taken in the first five rounds of most drafts this year.
They are.
They are Byron Buxton and Adalberto Mondesi.
If somebody were to ask you the best skill of these two players, what would be your response?
Can't stay on the field.
Great athleticism.
Great speed.
Game changers.
And those descriptions would all be right.
But one thing both these players have is tits.
Let me explain.
Guys go gaga over tits.
Put a girl in a low top shirt and we're distracted. Let alone attracted.
Both Buxton and Mondesi have been wearing low cut shirts for years.
And we're still distracted and attracted.
So much so, that we forgive them for not being on the field and still draft them in the top five rounds.
And worse and here is where the 'fickle' comes in, we can't even keep them straight.
Over the last two weeks of drafting, we have drafted Buxton at 59 or the end of the fourth round and Mondesi at 66 or the middle of the fifth round.
Over the first six weeks of drafting season, Mondesi was taken with an average of the 48th pick or beginning of the fourth round (!) while Buxton was at 63.

Nothing has happened with Mondesi on the field-wise, but drafters have him falling more than a full round.
Of course, his GM, Dayton Moore did speak about what we have all known about Mondesi for years....his problem of staying on the field.

The 'Pros' for Mondesi are all athletic.
He can run like the wind.
Hit for a bit of power.
Play different positions.
Shown the willingness to steal a base at any time.

The 'Cons' for Mondesi are less but huge.
He can't stay on the field.
He can't stay on the firld.
And, he can't stay on the field.
Adding to the problem is his GM who like some of his non-drafters, lost total confidence in him.
So now, Mondesi really doesn't have a position any longer.
The Royals have Whit at second, Lopez at Shortstop, and Witt at third as their notion for an Opening Day lineup.
Sure, if having a great Spring, or even a healthy spring, things can change.
But Mondesi is running out of time and patience in Kansa City.
Remember, in real baseball, a guy whose main skill is stealing bases is not revered like in fantasy circles.
Mondesi may go the way of Jonathan Villar in being a Utility guy....even as soon as this year.
For his GM, a plain Jane while we still look at the cleavage.

Buxton is the same but totally different. Let me explain.
Like Mondesi, Buxton can't stay on the field.
He has played over just 100 games ONCE in seven years.
Once.
And that was five years ago.
We keep drafting him expecting different results and are disappointed.
He showed us his tits again last year.
In just 235 at bats, he hit 19 homers and stole nine bases. A 40/20 pace over a full year.
Man, we do love tits.

Where Buxton is different than Mondesi is that his team has embraced him.
They signed him to a new contract that will keep Buxton in Minnesota for a long time.
They invested in him like we are investing in him.

Buxton's 'Pros are that he has hit a homer in average of just every 11 at bats over the last two years.
He is going to flash delicious power/speed skills.
Probably moving up the lineup a lot this year.

His 'Cons' are that to show your skills, you have to play.
Buxton still hasn't learned how to play nice with fences. He dives for balls. He does everything on defense to negate his offense.
Fantasy drafters hate that.
We could care less if you make the great play. Just don't get hurt.
Buxton gets hurt.

I probably won't draft either player this year.
It would have to be a bargain.
And for these types of players, there is always one in 15 drafters who will take a chance on both and pay their outrageous prices.
Before you draft one or both, remember this...
In 13 seasons between them, both have played in 100 games, a low bar, one time each.
They are the "Do you feel lucky, Punk's" of our drafts.
Try to look beyond the tits.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Mondesi, Buxton, and Tits

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:59 am

You know what players we love most in fantasy baseball?
The one's that don't screw us!
It's part of the reason for our love for prospects. If a player hasn't played in the Majors, he hasn't screwed us.
He has also never failed.
In the previous post, I talked about how Buxton and Mondesi have failed to stay on the field thus screwing their owners.
But what about the guy who has never failed?

.269/98/21/69/12

.254/92/20/73/13

Those numbers are very, very similar.
The first set of numbers are that of Jonathan India.
India has never failed his owners. Players that have a good rookie year can say that.
His numbers make him a seventh round draft choice in our drafts. It's a fair assessment.
India can do anything this upcoming year.
He can fail, repeat, or exceed his numbers from last year. I have no idea.
But for now, he is that player who has never pissed us off.
He has a lot of pro's.
He leads off.
Plays in a hitters park.
Hits for power.
Runs.
His only con, really, is that doubt of repeatability.

What about the other set of numbers....
You may be surprised, but the other player is being drafted three rounds later.
Plus, he has more positionality. A lot more.
He is Chris Taylor.
Taylor is the Darik Buchar of baseball. A Swiss army knife.
He plays everywhere. Hits everywhere in the lineup.
One of those players that seems to have to try harder to be one of the best.
Taylor seems to have made himself a great player.
We are slow to follow Taylor-made players.
We have the thought that he is a 'Utility Player'.
But utility players don't get 500 at bats like Taylor does.
But he still gives us positionality at 2B SS and OF.
His 'pro's' are easy.
Positionality.
A mix of HR and SB.
Plays in a lineup that affords counting numbers.
And he has that thing. You know. You just get a sense that he tries harder than most players.
A little something that analytics can't conceive.
His only con is that he seems to get nicked every once awhile and misses some games.

Numbers-wise, these two players should be going in the same round.
They aren't.
India's youth and having never failed puts him rounds ahead of Taylor.
In a perfect world, both should be drafted in the ninth round or so.
Both look to be great players to have on your roster for the coming season.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

ChipChopChip
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:46 pm

Re: Mondesi, Buxton, and Tits

Post by ChipChopChip » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:44 am

I haven’t drafted Mondesi this year but I have one share of Buxton in 8 DC’s this year. The appeal I see is that you usually get remarkable production when they are on the field, and there is always the outside chance that they play close to a full season. If you get a half season of great production and then fill in for those players off of the waiver wire for the other half of the season what does that production look like? Is it a 4th or 5th round selection? I would guess it would be pretty close. If they play less I don’t believe it would be, and if they play a full season it could be a return of a 1st or 2nd round spot.

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Mondesi, Buxton, and Tits

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:31 am

They do give remarkable production when on the field.
But, in seven years, Buxton has played in 48 percent of games. Mondesi, 39 percent.
That could change, sure. But it is just as likely that they will play even less.
One thing is for sure, I have never heard a drafter say, "I sure am glad I drafted Adalberto Mondesi".
I believe half a season of one and half a season with a fill-in doesn't work for me. It stretches my bench for FAAB leagues and takes away another player in DC's that I could have used had I not drafted 'Buxdesi'. Plus being dependent that they will even put in that half year.

One thing that could be in their favor this year is the lock out.
Teams and their trainers stretch these players muscles to the max for a game where 95% of the time, they are sitting or standing.
Injuries have gone through the roof since trainers entered baseball.
You know what I hope Buxton and Mondesi are doing this off season? Nothing.
It could be their best chance of staying healthy.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Mondesi, Buxton, and Tits

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:19 am

This draft season, we seem to be focused on two categories. One from the offensive side, one from the pitching side.
I have never seen Closers, especially Closers that aren't that special go so high in drafts.
It is all about supply and demand. So few of the Closers jobs have been anointed that we give Saves a high priority.
On the offensive side, stolen bases are a priority. Less players are running. And most players who are running, are drafted in the first few rounds.
So let's talk about two such players.
Trevor Story and Tim Anderson.

I know all about Trevor Story. Working in the Rockies system for awhile, I heard about a kid that worked his ass off to become a swell defensive shortstop. His offensive capabilities already ahead of most prospects.
The Rockies do not do very many things correctly, especially these days. But, if they do something well, it is drafting high character players.
Story fills that bill.

The Rockies do not have that same moral fiber. They jerk around their players. And they certainly jerked Story around. Story, literally, didn't know if he was coming or going last year. It's no wonder his numbers failed.
Whoever signs him as a free agent will be a lucky team.
But, and it's a big BUT, that doesn't necessarily mean the same for fantasy owners.

Let's start with the 'Pro's' for Story owners.
Story will try to play every game. He doesn't like 'taking a breather'.
Story will hit for power.
Story will run.
Story has been a wonderful fantasy player. A true five category player. The last couple of years being drafted in the first two rounds.

The major 'Con' for Story is that he moves away from Coors.
As with most Rockies players, Story loves hitting at home.
Over his career, he has hit over. 300 at home. This has always propped up his batting average.
On the road, .241
Worse, his career high for RBI on the road is just 37 runs batted in.

Over the last two weeks, Story's ADP in NFBC drafts is 39 or the middle of the third round.
This is propped up by Story stealing bases, which he will continue to do.
Still, I can't help but feel that his owners will be a little disappointed in drafting him in the third round and not getting third round results.

Tim Anderson is also being selected in the third round. Like Story, his owners think 'five category player'.
Tim Anderson is not a five category player.
Heck, a guy can even make the case that Timmy is a ONE category player. Let me explain.

Tim Anderson has hit 20 home runs once. He has stolen 20 bases once. Anderson has never scored 100 Runs. He has never driven in, even 70.
What Anderson does do, is provide great Batting Average. Anderson has batted over .300 three years in a row. With Major League hitters averaging around .245, that is a big deal.
When confronting a friend who likes Tim Anderson to sell me on him, he looked as if I was crazy.
"I don't need to sell Timmy", he told me. "A five category player leading off in a great ball park and great lineup?"
"Who could ask for more?"
I could.
I rattled off the same things said above and asked how he could be considered a five category player. I suggested that he wasn't a five category player, as much as he is a five category 'helper'. I opined that if he didn't run, he would be drafted in the same round as DJ LeMahieu.
Again, I get the look.
"He DOES run and he should steal more bases!"
I hate 'should'.
I reminded him that Anderson has played 123 games each of the last two seasons. The reason. Lower leg issues. I hate lower leg issues.
He responded that his statistics per game would have made him a GREAT five category player.
In a sense, forgive him for missing games.

In the end, he did not sell me. It's a long season. Players are going to get hurt. I believe that we can count on Anderson continuing in playing around 120 games.
This will not make him a five category player.
But, he WILL run and that is what folks are craving. It's also what keeps Anderson afloat as a third round choice.
I believe third round results will be his ceiling when the season is through.
The floor is up to you.

Story and Anderson are propped by their speed.
It is the reason why they are selected ahead of Xander Bogaerts (ADP 43) who has been a four category player and a helper in stolen bases most years.
I'd be more comfortable selecting both Story and Anderson in the fourth round. I believe they should be more punished for their fantasy misgivings.
Story for moving on from Coors and Anderson for missing games. But clearly, I am in the minority.... :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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