2022 and Carlos Marmol

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

2022 and Carlos Marmol

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:00 am

It was 2009. I was studying hard before the Main Event. Like every year, THIS was going to be the year!
I had all the players that I wanted in my notebook. I had a plan.
Everything set........except one thing.
The Chicago Cubs had not named a Closer.
Carlos Marmol was a fantasy dream. He had been setting up Kerry Wood the year before and vultured a few Saves.
Marmol still holds the Cubs strike out record for relievers with 138.
Anyway, in 2009, Wood had left for unfriendlier confines.
But to muddle things, the Cubs signed Kevin Gregg.
Think Mark Melancon...lite. That was Kevin Gregg.
We had the hard throwing, strike out accumulating, blow away reliever in Marmol vs. soft tossing Gregg.
I drafted Marmol.
The next day, Lou Piniella announced that Gregg would be his Closer. Stupid Piniella. Worse, stupid me.
I had lost a high draft pick.

I learned a lot from that experience.
The first thing I learned is that the better fantasy pitcher does not always get the Closer's gig.
The second thing being, don't expend a high draft pick without knowing all the facts possible.
The third being that in the end, it was stupid of me to expend a high pick on a Closer without a secure job.

Fast forward to now.
We are in a peculiar situation.
Closers will not be known by most teams until three weeks or less until the season begins.
It has messed up early drafts this year.
Is Raisel Iglesias a third round pick?
Of course not.
But, there he is being drafted in the third round.
This is due to supply and demand and most teams being up in the air about their relievers.
Drafters want a secure Closer.
But are they really getting them?

There are nine teams, count 'em, nine teams who 'have their man' as Closer for the beginning of 2022.

CWS Hendriks
MIL Hader
LAA Iglesias
HOU Pressly
ARI Melancon
NYY Chapman
NYY Diaz
CLE Clase
ATL WSmith

These are not air tight. Late trades or signings could upset even these apple carts.
But, we can feel pretty secure with these nine teams.

Next, we have the 'Carlos Marmol' teams. We have teams with a real good looking pitcher. At least to us.
So we have sorta anointed these Closers....

SF Doval
STL Gallegos
TOR Romano
PHI Knebel

These pitchers have no assurance that they will be the Closer come April. The only assurance for us being that they 'look like' they should be the Closer.
We also have two 'roaming' Closers.
Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel.
Of the 13 teams listed above, if Jansen or Kimbrel were obtained, they would be the Closer over the names listed for seven or eight teams.

The other 17 teams?
We are just giving it our best shot.

If the season begins on time, Closers will come in focus in March.
For us, the biggest difference in doing these crazy early DC's over the big drafts later on.
So when those big drafts do start, supply and demand will dwindle.
We will KNOW who is closing.
Raisel Iglesias, magically, will go from third round where he doesn't belong to fifth or sixth round status.
The others should slide as well.
At least, that's the way it should work.
I wouldn't wish getting Marmol'd on any drafter! :oops:
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: 2022 and Carlos Marmol

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:42 am

We have such a love/hate relationship with Closers.
In-season, we pray for our Closers team to be ahead by three runs or less going into the ninth inning. We curse the team for scoring an extra run.
Our Closer has already warmed up and enters the game with a four run lead.
To the fans of the team, wonderful.
To his fantasy owners, misery.
Fantasy owners know that the odds of something terrible happening far exceeds any good that can come from the situation.
Even if throwing 30 pitches, if a Save op becomes available the next day, it may not be our Closer who gets the Save. Misery is right.
Closers can deny it all they want, but they do not throw as well without a Save on the line. We've seen it too often.

Closers only throw about 60 innings. A mere pittance when we are accumulating 1,200 innings. It makes me smirk when a drafter takes a set-up guy too early and rationalizes that "It will help me with my ratio's".
Odds are, if he ain't Closing, he ain't starting in most lineups.
Yet, here we are in draft season treating these minimalists as if gold.

This drafting season has been like no other when it comes to Closers.
We 'know' who the Closer will be on less than a third of MLB teams. Supply and demand has driven the price for these known Closers sky-high.
Are Raisel Iglesias and Edwin Diaz world-beaters?
Heck no.
Still, they are being drafted as high as the third round by drafters.
These drafters want security.
They don't want to depend on Alex Colome 30 rounds later. Even knowing that Colome, somehow, some way will have a Closing gig for some crappy team.

Last year, Sal Perez played in 161 games. Just incredible really.
I never thought I'd see the day where any Catcher would play in that many games, helped by the DH or not.
To me, it was the most incredible achievement of the 2021 season.
Perez played more innings in one week than some Closers will see in a year.
Out of context, yes, but you get my point.
His 48 homers, herculean, for a Catcher.
The supply and demand for Catchers swatting 48 homers and playing 161 games, unfathomable.
Yet, JT Realmuto is only a round behind him.
And yes, Perez was passed for both Iglesias and Diaz in a draft just completed.
Supply and demand, sweet misery.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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