WHIR

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

WHIR

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:14 pm

I like writing in this space. I have it so much easier than 'writers'.
No deadlines.
Nobody telling me what to write.
No political correctness.
I can name a million things.
But mostly, it is because I have the best in audience.

The people that read this are among the best fantasy players in the world. While other writers are trying to be an 'expert' in helping fantasy players, I have the luxury of knowing that the folks who are reading this are probably better players than the writer!
Awesome when thinking about it.

I'll warn you now, this may be a little wordy, but I'll get to the point eventually.

Earle Combs is in the Hall of Fame. Combs was a very good player who played at the right place at the right time.
He led off for 'Murderer's Row'. The 1927 New York Yankees.
Combs played for 12 years and here is where the right place at the right time comes in, he scored almost 1,200 runs.
Do the math.
Combs OBP for 1927 was .397 and he scored 137 Runs.
Back to Combs later.

Maury Wills SHOULD be in the Hall of Fame.
Wills played for a lot of teams that couldn't hit.
In 1962, Wills set a then-record of stealing 104 bases. He led off for a team in the sixties who had little hitting.
No worries.
They had Koufax. They had Drysdale. They had Podres.
But without Wills, even the best of pitchers can't put runs on the board. (Although Drysdale was probably one of the best hitting pitchers of all time.)
Wills was a terror on the field.
Two stories about Wills....

The Dodgers came to town and took batting practice at Candlestick Field in San Francisco.
After batting practice they went to relax in their clubhouse before the game and get their visiting uni's on.
While that was happening, the Giants ground crew watered the field...and watered the field...and watered the field.
The area between first and second base, muddy.
The umpires showed, saw the mess and knew what the Giants were doing. They ordered the grounds crew to clean up the mud to the best of their ability. Somehow though, the path between first and second remained watery.
It didn't stop Wills. He stole two bases and after the game he declared himself 'a mudder'.

The second story was also having to do with the Giants.
The Giants clearly had Wills in their head.
Because this next bit of strategy required forethought.
In a 0-0 game, midway through the game, with two outs and nobody on, the Giants intentionally walked Don Drysdale .
This did a myriad of good for the Giants.
Drysdale was really one of the Dodgers best hitters.
Wills, with a runner on first was of little chance to bang an extra base hit, being a singles hitter.
But, the main reason for the pass to Drysdale was that it took away the opportunity for Wills to lead off an inning.
THAT is what the Giants feared most with the Dodger lineup.
And it worked.
Wills made an out and the Giants didn't have to think about him for nine more batters.
In 1962, Wills scored a Combs-esque, 130 Runs.

Rickey Henderson was the best leadoff hitter baseball has ever had.
No argument. Hands down.
Nobody even close.
Rickey did it all.
In 1985, Rickey scored a career-best 146 Runs.

Three different leadoff hitters. Three with wonderful career years. Three of the Greatest.

The baseball world has changed since then. Analytics, shifts, depreciation of the stolen base.
Being an old timer, I shake my head and think it a damned shame.
Who is the best leadoff hitter in today's game?
Nobody.
Because we don't have 'lead off hitters' any longer.
Sure, you could have made a case for Trea Turner. And Ronald Acuna Jr.
The problem being that tomorrow or next week, the same thing may happen to Acuna as happened to Trea.
He may not lead off.
Mookie Betts has 278 at bats over the last four years that came as a two-nine hitter.
Managers today think they're smart and tinker.
Being the smartest guy in the room, proving stupid, really.

Analytics has driven Managers (and writers) to believe they are smart.
Ask any writer. They'll tell you that the ultimate stat for a leadoff hitter is .OBP
Silly, really.
The other day, a RotoWorld writer called Brendan Donovan one of the Cardinals Most Valuable Player this year.
Especially with his 12.2 percent walk rate.
I blew a gasket.
I wrote to the text group about what an injustice it was that Donovan was even leading off for the Cardinals.
It's stupid.
Tommy Edman is a PREMIER leadoff hitter. (More later)

And it is now (after many. many words, that I will get to the point. :D
OBP means nothing for leadoff hitters and it means even less for us fantasy players.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. But nobody will listen.
Because of analytics, the world thinks that .OBP is a true mark of a player.
Hogwash.

I have a stat I have used for years. Never gave it a name.
But, let's call it 'WHIR'.
It's an easy stat, a little like a pitchers WHIP.
All you do is take the number of Runs Scored and divide that by a hitters hits and BB.
This gives you the percentage of times a batter scores after reaching base.
It's a follow-up stat to .OBP....After all, what is the use of getting on base if not scoring?
A WHIR of 50 percent is elite for a leadoff hitter.
Rickey had some years where he was beyond elite. A 55% WHIR some years.
Lifetime, Henderson's WHIR is an amazing .438
Most leadoff hitters will not have one year of .438 during their career.

Remember Wills? He had just 29 extra base hits in 1962.
His stolen bases WERE his extra base hits.
He scored at an elite .502 WHIR clip.

Earle Combs had it easy. Having a great year hitting in front of the Babe and Larruping Lou.
But Combs, who had an astronomical .414 OBP, some 50 points higher than Wills, only had a WHIR of .467

Ok, let's bring it home.
Earlier, I railed about Brendan Donovan being valuable because of his 12.2 % walk rate.
Still makes me seethe.
Donovan has an OBP of .388.... that makes analytics folks drool.
But you know what? His WHIR is .348! A measly .348!
That's right. He scores just a third of the time he reaches base.

Let's take his teammate, Tommy Edman.
Analytics folks dislike Edman. They call him lucky.
An OBP of .326...What a loser!
You know what?
Edman is elite.
His WHIR is .497
That's right. Edman is scoring like Maury Wills scored. Even like Rickey Henderson some years.
And you know what?
Edman, the guy with the lifetime .OBP of .323 also has a lifetime WHIR OF .473

Donovan is a nice little player. He is. Nice.
But Edman makes that offense go.
Analytics doesn't get it. Just like the Hall doesn't get Maury Wills.
They take a partial look and rely on stats that really do not have much to do with winning a ball game.
Wills and Edman are winners in every sense of the word.
I wish the Hall and analytics would pay attention.
They're missing a good ballgame.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: WHIR

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:45 pm

Just an addendum on WHIR...

It's telling on others besides leadoff hitters.
Analytics kisses Juan Soto's ass because of his .OBP
As of now, it's .402
They shouldn't kiss his ass.
His WHIR is a horrible .370
A signal that although Soto receives accolades for reaching base, the pitchers are the one's who should receive them.
Soto isn't hurting them at all by dying on the bases almost two of every three times.

On the other hand, a guy like Dansby Swanson with just a .338 .OBP is killing with WHIR at .450

And so it goes.....
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

ChipChopChip
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:46 pm

Re: WHIR

Post by ChipChopChip » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:26 pm

You have had many good ones, but this one is awesome.

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: WHIR

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:28 am

ChipChopChip wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:26 pm
You have had many good ones, but this one is awesome.
Thanks!
It's guys like you that keep me coming back. :D

Just something that's been on my mind...
Remember when announcers and players would say that a ball was crushed or he hit the daylights out of that ball?
Sounded so much better than that ball was hit 100 mph.
Analytics thinks that barrels or MPH is the end all. It isn't.
It's just another case of stats being (mis)used.

Take this for instance from RotoWorld....

"Steven Kwan went 3-for-5 and hit his fourth homer Sunday against the Twins.
The homer was projected at 387 feet, making it his second longest fly of the year and longest of his homers. He actually hit two balls at over 100 mph today. He previously had topped 100 mph just 19 times in 463 at-bats."

As if Kwan doesn't belong because he doesn't hit moon shots like Aaron Judge!
Kwan is a reminder of the way baseball used to be. A guy that hits himself on base.
I can see the same thing written about Ichiro, or Rod Carew, or Pete Rose, or Tony Gwynn. Ugh.

Analytics is in a rut. All about stats THEY believe are of import. Much like baseball is in a rut right now with the three outcome game.
Hopefully, the rule changes will start to bring us back to the game we grew up with.
A game where Rocky Colavito (Yep, I'm old) can be on the field and be appreciated for having great power and powerful arm from right field.
Instead of measuring the MPH of his homer or number of barrels he had last week!

Again, thanks for the note!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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