Havin Fun With 2023 ADP

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sorry I haven't been around for awhile. My brother's wife passed away recently and he hasn't coped with it to well. I've been sorta babysitting him through his void and loneliness. But, you don't want to hear about real life, and really, neither do I...

First, I am not an 'expert'. All I do is write. To me, there are no experts in fantasy baseball. To be an expert in any field, I feel like you have to have conquered that field. I've won leagues, you've won leagues, most of us reading this has won leagues, but none of us have felt like we conquered fantasy baseball. It's like conquering golf. It can't be done.
I say this about experts because this piece is what one who fancies themself an expert would write....Only in reverse.
Experts like to tell us what they would do in a draft. Tell you who you should draft.
I'm going to do the opposite here.
My plan is take the first 10 rounds of ADP and tell you who I would NOT select within the first 10 rounds.
Should be fun and if you disagree, it's ok, I'm no expert!

ADP 136-150 ROUND 10

I'm going to be very blunt.
What is the fascination with Ke 'Bryan Hayes?
Seriously?
I have a friend who has drafted Hayes the last two years. Both years I contacted him in August and asked how Hayes was doing on his Main Event team.
His response was "Hey, he's getting me SB from a corner spot."
Ugh.
If wanting SB from a corner spot means so much, draft Jon Berti.
Hayes .244/55/7/41/20
Berti .240/47/4/28/41
Closer than thought, eh?

Hayes has never hit more than 10 home runs in a season. Not even in the Minor Leagues!
He's never driven in 70 runs, never scored 70 runs. Not even in the Minor Leagues!
What Hayes HAS had since appearing in pro ball is hype.
And sure, that hype can be fulfilled someday, but until it is, I'd feel better rostering Ryan McMahon 60 picks later in a later round than Hayes in round 10.

Hayes has been in professional baseball for eight seasons.
Last year was the first year that he had over 500 at bats.
It was also the first year that he played over 120 games.
Even then, it seemed as if he was courting minor injury most of the season.
Since appearing in professional baseball, Hayes skill set has been waylaid in missing games.
And really, what is the skill set?

Hayes plays on a bad offensive team, gets nicked up often, and has never shown power for a CI.
It is not a 10th round pick I would be proud of....

ROUND 9 tomorrow....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Round 9 ADP 121-135

We all love success stories.
Last year, Clay Holmes was a success story.
He was the man who replaced Aroldis Chapman. And did it flawlessly. He Closed games when the Yankees were the best team in baseball.
He allowed two earned runs in 36 2/3 innings. Amazing really.
That is what comes to mind right away.
That success story.
The End.

But, it's not the end. Not for us.
We have next year. 2023.
It's easy to forget that Holmes blew up big time in July.
In August, Aaron Boone wanted to pull him from the Closers job.
Then, Holmes came up with a bad back.
The Yankees went the same way Holmes did. Downhill.

After giving up two earned runs over the first three months of last season, Holmes would have an ERA over 5.00 the rest of the season.
Although he did well in the post season.
Holmes is not a young pitcher who dazzled.
He'll be 30 years old next season with a short history of Closing.
He is the 16th Closer off the board in early drafts, giving him his ninth round status.


The history is short and the off season is long for us and owners of Holmes.
Last year, Will Smith (the pitcher) started rising in drafts. He started out being drafted in the teens of rounds and ended up being taken as high as the fifth round. Even ahead of Will Smith (the catcher).
We all know what happened.
On March 22, Kenley Jansen was traded to the Braves.
It was a great trade for the Braves. Jansen was experienced and the Braves are a contender.
Will Smith was a short term Closer who was simply relegated to.....in a fantasy sense.....oblivion.
Yep, everybody who drafted Smith in the teens or the fifth round was left with bupkus, zilch, nothing.
The Yankees are a contender like the Braves and Holmes is a short timer like Smith.
It is tough for me to justify picking Holmes in the ninth round.
I'll pass.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 8 ADP 106-120

There are some things us folks from Colorado know that other states do not. For us, we know it is very hard for athletes to play sports here.
We know that our teams will hardly ever have a 'Rookie of the Year' for example. Players need that year to acclimate to our thin air and other factors.
We also know it is harder to come back from injury here. Especially when involving muscle injury.
We know not to bet on an NBA team, if playing on the road the very next night after being in Denver.
Something happens to those teams, where they are winded after being in Denver.
At one time, teams that left Denver and played a game the next night had a 30% chance of covering.
It's been awhile since betting on basketball, so I don't know it that is still true today.

Simply, it is different in Colorado.
For our purposes, we love Rockies hitters, hate the pitchers.
The thin air and roomy Coors field allows for lots of hits.
We like lotsa hits from our fantasy players.
It is easy to think, "He plays in Colorado, I'll draft him."
It leads me to the subject of this piece.
Kris Bryant.

I'll let you know here and now that I will not own a single share of Kris Bryant this year.
I love the player. I do. But I believe he will be a total bust here in Colorado.
Bryant's first year of adjusting here went a little worse than expected.
He hurt his back and said he'd be back in the lineup as soon as his 10 days on the dl were up.
Colorado folks know better. It takes longer to recover here.
Then, a bone bruise in his foot. He said the same thing. Eyeroll.
Plantar Fasciitis was the last injury and he missed the rest of the season.

I get the feeling that Bryant isn't ready for the rigors of playing in Colorado.
Sure, he may have a season or two where he excels here. But I won't take a one in seven or two in seven chance that THIS will be the year that Bryant gives back to drafters what is owed in terms of round taken.
If I had to guess, I would say that Bryant will play in 50% of games here over his seven year contract. If that.
Actually, over the last three years, Bryant has played in just 57% of games, so it is not an outlandish prediction.
Injury has dogged a lot of Rockies signees. Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy, and David Dahl as a draftee to name a few.
Each of those fellas along with Bryant have been over drafted, mostly because of where they play.
But where they play has also been part of their downfall.


(Not part of the story, just a weird piece of trivia.....
Bryant hit five homers in 160 at bats last year. He had 99 of those bats in Coors. Zero home runs.)

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 7 ADP 91-105

Here are the players in the grouping for round seven...

91 Alex Bregman
92 Triston McKenzie
93 Andres Gimenez
94 Vinnie Pasquantino
95 Eloy Jimenez
96 Cristian Javier
97 Bryan Reynolds
98 Nathaniel Lowe
99 Logan Webb
100 Gunnar Henderson
101 George Kirby
102 Willson Contreras
103 Kyle Wright
104 C.J. Cron COL
105 Willy Adames

Round eight came easy with Kris Bryant. For me, he sticks out like a sore thumb. Another injury he may suffer from in the future.
To tell the truth, I like the group listed above. I can nit pik and say that Pasquantino is being taken a little too high for my tastes or that Willson Contreras may land in a place that is not conducive for good fantasy stats.
And after last night, I expect that Cristian Javier will probably not be picked this late again until memories of him no-hitting the Phillies fade from drafters minds....a 'Sleeper' for sure.
In other words, a tip of the hat and a good job given here to the ADP makers and I'll move on to ROUND 6.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 6 ADP 76-90

Would you draft a guy with this line in the sixth round? .244/39/12/32/9
Neither would I.
Yet, every year, for his eight MLB years, this player has been drafted highly.
Mostly higher than the sixth round.
Crazy, right?

The player is Byron Buxton. Buxton breaks hearts every year. Yet, here we are.
Standing in line to have it happen again.
Buxton is a six tool player. The five tools used to play baseball and the sixth tool, which is the incapability of using those five tools because of health.
In eight seasons, Buxton has played over 100 games....one time....one time!
He has played in 49%of Twins games.
Buxton has never hit 30 homers. Never stolen 30 bases.
He has only hit 20 homers and stolen 20 bases one time.
Never scored 70 Runs, never had 70 RBI.
Yet, here we are in the sixth round with his name.
We overlook his best skill, that of missing games. And salivate over what could be instead of what will be.

What really gets me is this ADP is made up of early drafters doing Draft Championships.
Draft Championships have a dual penalty for injured players.
We can't play that player and the player we use to replace him will be a probable round 25-50 draft pick.
A horrible price to pay.
At least in FAAB leagues he can be replaced or even booted off the roster for a catastrophic injury and replaced with a hot hitter or flavor of the week.
DC Drafters have to look at a little red cross next to his name for what seems an eternity.

I may be interested in Buxton in the eighth or ninth round of FAAB drafts. The replacement cost can be mitigated by what was said above.
For DC's, unless the round is a double digit number, I would have no interest.
The cost of this pain is way too high.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 5 ADP 61-75

We punish and applaud players for the previous season through ADP. Julio Rodriguez is being taken number one overall in some drafts. That's a standing applause with three curtain calls and shouts of "BRAVO!"
Then, there's a guy like Noah Syndergaard who is much like the previously written Byron Buxton. We see the talent and that talent blinds us.
So his ADP is higher than it should be for years. Then finally, we give up. And finally, folks have given up on Thor, he has been relegated to a fella with a 24th round ADP.
Some players hang around the top layers of drafts because of their past. No matter what happened the year before.
Such is the case with Trevor Story.

Story is a very hot/cold hitter. He has been a hot/cold hitter throughout his career. When you're a hot/cold hitter in Colorado, it is mostly due to splits. Coors Field is a very inviting place to hit. Story would go on absolute tears during home stands. Sometimes, icy cold on the road.
Last year, Story was signed by the Red Sox.
Still, he continued his hot/cold hitting.
Get this....
Story had 16 HR and 13 SB last year.
Between May 11 and May 26, 9 HR and 5 SB.
That's right. Story had half of his HR and SB production over the course of two weeks.
On May 11, he was hitting .206, after May 26, .232
From then on, he was meh and finished the season at .238

Story had injury problems that hurt his stats. But mostly, not hitting hurt his stats most.
ADP in my estimation, has not punished Story enough.
Last year, he was a third round player with memories of his past fresh in drafters minds.
This year, there is a warning that he may not play as well away from Colorado.
And we only ding him two rounds.
There are four age groups in baseball....
20-26 Young
27-29 Prime
30-32 Past Prime
33-45 Old

Story has passed his prime. Sure, some players are great into their 30's, but the hot/cold tendencies and injuries start getting tougher overcome.
Story is being drafted ahead of MI like Dansby Swanson, Wander Franco, Oneill Cruz, and Corey Seager at a time when they are on the rise while it looks like Story is starting a fall.

I hope I am wrong on this one. Trevor Story is a quality kid and gym rat of a baseball player. But in fantasy baseball, we can't let how we feel about a player cloud our judgment of how productive that player will be over the coming season.
In the fifth round, Story simply is misplaced by 20-30 picks.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 4 ADP 46-60

Within the space of three months, Starling Marte stole 39 bases. An owners dream. He won some leagues for his owners in 2021.
Last year, he stole 18 bases and had 16 HR.
It is totally understandable why he has a fourth round ADP. Totally.
Marte is a speed guy. Not a judy. A speed guy.
He hits for a little power. Hits in the top half of the lineup.
Has all the tools to be a fourth round pick.

We assume that players like Marte will fill up all five categories.
We're wrong.
Marte has been a semi-great fantasy player during his career, especially filling a need that we crave. Speed.
The problem is that we assume a guy who hits .289, has a lot of speed, and hits for a lot of power will fill the R and RBI categories.
We want our fourth round picks to generate a possible 100/100 in R and RBI.
That is not a possibility for Marte.
In 11 years, Marte has done neither.
Only scored 90 Runs twice. Never had 90 RBI.

Marte just turned 34 years old and had core surgery. Two things put speed guys in jeopardy. Age and health.
I'm wary.
For me, he's not a hard pass in the fourth round. But, he's a pass just the same.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 3 ADP 31-45

I'm calling it. This is the year.
I will use no statistics for this guy. He has been impeccable over a long career.
Cooperstown awaits.
He has been either a first round or second round pick for umpteen years.
And I have drafted him a lot during that time.
I'm talking about Max Scherzer.

Scherzer is the quintessential bulldog. When he pitches, whether owning him or not, you kinda feel sorry for the other team.
He walks around the mound like a cat circling his prey. Especially after disposing of a hitter on strikes. No celebration shown, his mind already focused on the next hitter in hoping he meets the same fate.
Scherzer has been the most consistent fantasy pitcher over the last 10 years.
We like the word 'seldom' when it comes to fantasy features in pitchers.
'Seldom' gets hit.
'Seldom' gets hurt.
Scherzer has been the embodiment of 'seldom'.

So, why is he on this list?
For the same reason that he has not been near the top of drafts despite being the pitcher that he is.
Age.
None of us want to be holding the bag when arthritis strikes our player.
Scherzer showed a few signs in finally breaking down last year.
They weren't large injuries. But the kind of stoppages that give drafters pause.
I'm calling it. This is the year.
This is the year when we finally stop thinking about Mad Max as being one of the best pitchers in baseball.
I hope I'm wrong and to hedge my bet, I may take Scherzer in a DC. Just because I love the guy.
Really, I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm not.....Thanks Max,,,,You were so much fun to watch.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 2 ADP 16-30

We have reached the top two rounds. Instead of being the hardest of all rounds, these two rounds each have a player that easily does not belong.
One word......HYPE.
Hype is the reason. If we look at what a player has done more than what a player CAN do, it will change our drafting technique.

Does Luis Robert have talent? Damn straight.
But what good is talent if he can't display that talent.
Robert has had six seasons in pro ball. He has played just one season in playing 100 games. One season in six! 100 games!
In the minors, he played 200 games from 2017-19. An average of 67 games a season.
In the majors, he's played 222 games from 2020-2022. An average of 74 games a season.

Robert has not been punished enough by us drafters for his transgressions. He should be a fourth round selection at the highest.
Our first three rounds build a foundation for our drafts.
Drafting Robert in those first three rounds gives us faulty material in building that foundation. The cracks appear during the season and soon, the whole damn thing falls when Robert does his disappearing trick on the field.

Last year, Michael Harris II had this line....297/75/19/64/20
A great fantasy line from a rookie.
Do you know what Robert's best Major League line is? .284/54/12/56/11
But let's not compare Robert with a guy who had a great year. Let's compare him with another guy.
Whit Merrifield was punished severely for
1. Having a bad year.
2. Being traded to a team where he won't be at the top of the lineup.
3. Losing playing time.
Merrifield fell from being drafted in the third round to having an ADP this year of a 12th round pick. Deserved.
His line from last year? .250/70/11/58/16
That's right, in one of Merrifield's worst years, his line tops Robert's best year.

As I stated in an earlier post in this series, these ADP's are made up of Draft Champions. Once a player like Robert is shelved, he is replaced by a guy we draft in round 30ish. A horrible fate for drafters.
Yet, hype rears it's ugly head.
We forget that Volume is a secret sixth category. Without Volume, we cannot accumulate statistics and if we can't accumulate statistics, we lose.
It takes us awhile to punish talent and hype for the sake of volume.
In Robert's case, we used a feather to spank him when a hard stick was necessary.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ROUND 1 ADP 1-15

Those who know me already know what I am going to say. I said it last year (probably too much) and the same goes for this year...
I was incredulous last year when Soto was taken near the top of drafts.
Juan Soto is not a first round choice.
What Juan Soto IS is an incredible baseball player. He has the five tools that makes up a great baseball player.
Some analysts compare him to Ted Williams. They shouldn't but they do.

Now, you may be saying, "Man, this dumbshit just said that Juan Soto has all five tools but doesn't belong in the first round."
First, I agree with the dumbshit part. Guilty as charged. No defense.
But, I think I am right about Soto. At least some folks agree. Last year, Soto was going near or at the top of drafts, this year, he has an ADP of nine.
The reason for the drop of a player who has five tool talent and is a tremendous baseball player is wasted at bats.

Soto is the pickiest hitter in baseball. Analytics love picky superstars. They compare them with Ted Williams, you know.
In fantasy baseball, it is not a good quality.
Soto is not Joey Votto-bad in being picky. He does not sacrifice power. He does not choke up vastly on two strike pitches.
BUT, he is picky. And when a real good hitter is picky, he'll get walked a lot.
In fantasy, getting walked a lot means a wasted at bat.
Sure, Soto could steal (he only averages seven steals per year) or score a run (it happened seldom with WAS, probably increases his chances with SD) but in our eyes, we draft an offensive player to primarily do one thing....HIT!

Soto led the league in walking last year. By far. He walked 135 times. Aaron Judge took 111 BB. No other hitters walked more than 90 times.
No pitchers WANT to pitch to Soto or Judge. They don't mind walking them. Judge will be lauded for his BB 'ability' when pitchers should get the credit for having the good sense in walking him. It's a paradox.
What sets Judge apart from Soto is that he'll pick on pitches outside of the zone. Soto will not.
I alluded to Soto possibly scoring more runs with San Diego and he probably will.
Some forecasted that with a great hitter (Machado) behind him, that Soto would see more good pitches.
Maybe.
It didn't happen last year.
Soto's walk rate did not change when moving to San Diego. Worse, he had even less RBI, although that may be a case of him just not being a very good hitter at all while with the Padres.

Here are three lines...

.242/93/27/62/6

.298/100/32/102/9

.296/84/27/88/3

The first line is Soto. The second is teammate Manny Machado. The third is Rafael Devers.
In most drafts, Soto is being taken 10 picks ahead of second rounders Machado and Devers.
Folks, that just shouldn't be happening.
Soto has hit 30 homers once in his five years of play. He has stolen 10 bases once.
Devers had a year in which he was nicked up and didn't play up to full capabilities. His stats still measuring up to Soto.
Machado, simply, has been a better fantasy player than Soto.
Machado doesn't have the flair, but has something more important to us. Numbers.

Sometimes, we're guilty of following the hype. Soto burst upon the scene. Had a great post-season and fell into that "He can only get better" way of thinking among fantasy drafters.
BUT, he is not getting better. He is what he is. A damned good baseball player.
And as a fantasy baseball player, a second round pick for me.


Hey everybody, thanks for the listen. I appreciate you and this forum and will try to keep this area alive as the off season goes on.
Thanks again.

[ChipChopChip]

I just drafted Juan Soto with the 11th pick. I think last year was just an off year for the slugger. We will probably find out some excuse of why he had such a bad year in the coming days, I just hope it wasn't a lingering injury he enduring. I love reading you pieces, keep up the good work.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I just drafted Juan Soto with the 11th pick. I think last year was just an off year for the slugger. We will probably find out some excuse of why he had such a bad year in the coming days, I just hope it wasn't a lingering injury he enduring. I love reading you pieces, keep up the good work.

Perfect!
Don't stop picking anybody on the basis of my opinion.
As said when starting this piece, there are no experts in this hobby.

My favorite part about owning Soto in the past is that he is just so darned enjoyable to watch!
Thanks for the listen, it's appreciated.